First of all, take a look at SNE's review of the global power battery market: in 2021, the total battery power of new energy vehicles in various countries around the world is 296.8GWh, and the installed capacity of power batteries in 2020 is 146.8GWh, and the power battery has really changed a lot to the global resource price increase.
From the perspective of enterprises, the Ningde era ranked first, followed by LG Energy Solution, Panasonic ranked third, but BYD followed the distance with Panasonic, and SK On finally won the fifth place of the year for the first time.
I also combed through some of the contents of SNE's prediction of batteries in KABC.
Figure 1: The installation of power batteries in 2021 of major battery companies
Part 1
The market and order situation of power batteries
From the perspective of the automotive industry, the recovery that began in Q3 of 2020, despite the impact of semiconductor supply shortages and epidemics, has been a sustained and stable recovery in 2021. Ningde times, BYD and a number of Other Chinese companies have boosted the overall market, and the market share of Chinese power battery companies has risen mainly due to the rapid growth of the Chinese market, corresponding to the fact that most Japanese companies, including Panasonic, have a growth rate lower than the market average, and their market share has declined. The growth rate of the three battery companies in South Korea was mixed, with the total share of the three companies being 30.4%, slightly lower than the previous year.
Figure 2: Year-on-year growth rate of Chinese, Japanese and Korean companies
SK On 16.7GWh, up 107.5%; Samsung SDI is up 56.0%.
LG Energy Solutions' growth was mainly driven by surges in shipments of Tesla Model Y (made in China), Volkswagen ID.4 and Ford Mustang Mach-E. SK On is largely dependent on strong sales of hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia Niro EV and EV6 leading to high growth. Samsung SDI mainly relied on the sales growth of the Fiat 500, Jeep Wrangler PHEV, and BMW iX to lead the way, but the sharp decline in Volkswagen e-Golf sales significantly eroded the overall growth.
▲Figure 3. Market share of global power battery companies
In the case of SNE evaluating the order allocation, as shown in the figure below, from the understanding here, Tesla's change is relatively large, CATL's order volume accounted for from 10% to 30-40%+, LG and Panasonic have been beaten down. Since many car companies around the world are promoting PHEV, this also makes China's demand for power batteries around because of the BEV before 2021.
Note: The following figure is SNE's overall allocation of orders from 2021 to 2030.
Figure 4. SNE estimates the allocation of battery orders in 2020
SNE's estimated demand for power batteries in automobile companies from 2022 to 2030 is estimated according to GWh.
▲Figure 5.Estimated demand for power batteries
Part 2
Future trends in batteries
My overall view of the future trend of the battery is similar to Mr. Lu Xuelong's estimate on this page: from the current data, the LFP battery easily covers 60-70kWh, so the Ni 60 is indeed more embarrassing.
Figure 6:Battery power and mileage distribution
I think the most important thing is that the main progress estimate of 4680 on this page may be relatively high similar to the actual situation, and everyone can pay more attention to the Ruyifeng project.
Figure 7: Progress of 4680 worldwide
Summary: At present, with the systematic advancement of battery technology coming to an end, it may be that from 2022, the semi-solid-state sound is getting louder and louder. Let's then look at the 360Wh/kg semi-solid car to try, 1000 km of vehicle can not run out as expected, this is more interesting.