Following yesterday's thinking, look at the intelligence of commercial vehicles, especially ADAS and automatic driving in trucks, which are two parts.
In the CBI article "60+ Companies Shaping The Future Of Autonomous Trucking & Next-Gen Freight", there is a more interesting collation, the core logic is that during Covid-19, due to the lack of truck drivers, there is a certain rigidity for the progress and demand for autonomous truck technology. As technology matures, self-driving trucks are likely to become an important part of modern logistics businesses faster in terms of time schedule than Robot Taxi (dramatically increasing efficiency and reducing costs, filling key weaknesses in many supply chains). The amount and amount involved in the CBI in terms of financing is very large.
Figure 1. Financing in the truck sector
Part 1 Technologies that underpin self-driving trucks
In fact, in addition to the trucks themselves, technology-enabled sub-sectors have emerged in the U.S. and globally to provide solutions for logistics and cargo transportation, covering fleet management, freight matching, and supply visualization. I understand that the latter three areas are platforms based on IT technology support.
● Fleet management
It involves real-time vehicle tracking, improving driver communication, safety & monitoring fuel consumption, optimizing route planning, etc.
● Freight matching costs
Time efficiency can determine the success or failure of logistics companies, freight matching mainly pairs freight with specific drivers (this field is replaced by brokers by freight matching algorithms), and the freight and fleet management of autonomous fleets is becoming more and more digital, and there will be great changes in this field.
● Shipment tracking and visualization
Dedicated freight tracking and visualization tools are also an important part of the whole process, companies shipping high-value or sensitive goods, dedicated freight tracking tools can provide detailed information and insight into the movement of goods. Providing end-to-end shipment visibility and improving supply chain resiliency through real-time data from the supply chain, digital freight forwarding includes platforms that help shippers manage the end-to-end movement of global freight (simplify pricing, increase communication, inventory visibility, insight and analytics).
Note: Trucks are part of the global freight logistics system, and the attributes of this tool are still very clear.
Figure 2. Four aspects of the trucking sector
(Autonomous Driving, Fleet Management, Freight Matching and Freight Tracking & Visualization)
●Autonomous driving technology for trucks
This field is mainly a technology provider, due to the high cost of its own trucks, so generally such start-ups are around the segmentation of the field to do, the opportunities and potential market in this field is quite considerable, but the barriers to entry are also very high. With Waymo and Aurora, two companies that do Robot Taxi's self-driving system, also began to enter this field along several core truck companies (the cost of research and development is very high, and passenger car commercial vehicles together help give investors an important direction), the competition in this area has become fierce. Waymo raised $5.7 billion, Aurora $2.1 billion, and then went to the U.S. stock market, as well as Tucson and Empire, and the number of self-driving trucks that can really fight is actually limited.
Table 1. Mainly tracked self-driving related truck companies
Part 2 Situation of listed companies
Track the situation of Aurora, Tusimple, and Embark based on the information you have:
（1）Aurora
With the end of autonomous driving with Volkswagen, Aurora now has only Toyota as its core passenger car partner (brought about by the acquisition of Uber's autonomous driving division). Self-driving trucks became the core business, and DAF and Volvo were also tied to the United States, covering 50% of the U.S. truck market.
Remarks: The specific technical level of the content, wait to do later, this field has begun to achieve acquisitions upstream, that is, aurora as a technology provider and integrator began to penetrate into the upstream perception field.
Figure 3. Aurora's self-driving trucks have become a major business
(2) Tucson
The interesting thing is how the autonomous driving system occupies a reasonable business model in the entire freight system, including the business model of transportation cost payment, or whether it is around fleet operation or how to pay, here can see a very valuable business model change.
Figure 4. Tucson relied on NAVISTAR to land in the United States
（3）Embark
Among the three companies that are already in the US stock market, Embark's cooperation object seems to be slightly weaker, and more around the supply chain.
Figure 5. Embark is a bit more about the supply chain component
Summary: Relatively speaking, China also lacks freight drivers, and such a large logistics system is actually only a big demand for self-driving trucks. However, relatively speaking, sub-regional and sub-scenarios, scenarios like mining areas will land faster for self-driving trucks.
In this large autonomous driving system, competition around commercial vehicles and passenger cars is still very fierce. From the evolution of this wave from 2016 to 2021, 2022 is a rest period, but there will be some players with stronger vertical integration ability in the restructuring process.