Author | Liu Jingfeng
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On May 9th, I sat in the cab of Pony.ai and followed this self-driving truck to experience the full journey of self-driving heavy trucks. As the truck driver drove the 12.5-meter-long truck to the entrance of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangzhou Expressway, the truck entered the automatic driving mode, and then the vehicle identified the ETC channel at the entrance of the expressway by itself, and selected a channel to enter the highway according to the height limit of the vehicle. The vehicle then picks up speed and merges onto the main highway to a speed of 90 km/h. In the process of driving, the truck completed automatic overtaking, lane change and other actions. During this section, the driver only put his hands on his lap and did not take over the steering wheel of the vehicle.
In the whole experience, the driving feeling of autonomous driving is not much different from the driving feeling of human drivers. In the past, the Robotaxi vehicles we experienced felt "half a beat slower" than human drivers, whether it was in terms of vehicle speed, lane changes, and turns when encountering obstacles.
In my experience, Pony.ai's self-driving trucks driving on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangzhou Expressway can not only automatically recognize traffic lights, automatically complete basic actions such as turning and making a U-turn, but also automatically select a channel with a suitable height limit to enter and exit the highway toll station, and drive according to the specified speed of the lane (90km/h) on the expressway, and complete automatic overtaking, lane change and other actions.
A self-driving truck driving on a high speed without a driver taking over Source: Photo by Xiaguang Society
In terms of speed on the road, the self-driving car I experienced this time is a step further than in the past. The experience of an autonomous vehicle on a given road section is almost indistinguishable from that of a human driver.
Since the beginning of this year, the recovery of the logistics market has led to an increase in demand and sales of commercial vehicles, which has led to a recovery in self-driving trucks.
Commercial vehicles are a microcosm that can best reflect the changes in the economy.
In 2020, China's annual sales of commercial vehicles exceeded 5 million units for the first time, reaching a historical peak of 5.133 million units. In the following two years, domestic commercial vehicle sales began to decline. In 2021, China's commercial vehicle sales were 4.793 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%; In 2022, China's commercial vehicle sales fell again to 3.3 million units, down 31.2% year-on-year, showing a double-digit decline. It was not until 2023 that China's commercial vehicle sales stopped falling and rebounded, completing sales of 4.031 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%.
In 2023, China's commercial vehicle sales will return to 4 million units, and a very important reason is the increase in exports. According to the data, from 2021 to 2023, the export volume of commercial vehicles in mainland China will be 402,000 units, 582,000 units and 770,000 units, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 70.7%, 44.9% and 32.2%, respectively.
Entering 2024, judging from the recent industrial development plans for 2023 and 2024 issued by many ministries and commissions and a series of promotion measures, the growth rate of industrial added value in 2024 is expected to be 4.0%, higher than 3.5% in 2023, and the demand for vehicles used in the field of industrial transportation is expected to further rebound. In addition, the country's continuous stimulus policy on consumption this year has played a positive role in promoting consumer logistics. At the same time, the profitability of logistics enterprises has gradually recovered, driving the willingness of enterprises to increase their purchase and driving the demand for vehicles.
But perhaps more obviously, it is the commercial vehicle export that is driving the boost. At the "2024 China Commercial Vehicle Forum" held on March 26 this year, Li Shaohua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, mentioned that in 2024, the growth space of China's commercial vehicle sales will mainly be in exports.
It is worth mentioning that under the momentum of recovery, the electrification and intelligence of commercial vehicles are becoming more and more significant. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 17.4% and 17.5% of commercial vehicle production and sales in 2023, respectively. The penetration rate of new energy in the heavy-duty truck, light-truck, micro-truck and light passenger car markets continues to increase under the development of electrification in key scenarios. With the gradual improvement of energy replenishment infrastructure such as battery charging and hydrogen refueling, as well as the gradual maturity of new energy commercial vehicle technology, and the reduction of vehicle costs, the scenarios that can be covered by new energy commercial vehicles continue to expand, and the application scale continues to increase.
The new energy of commercial vehicles has also led to the implementation of intelligent and autonomous driving in the field of commercial vehicles. This is because electric vehicles are less difficult to deploy than gasoline vehicles.
This year, there has been new progress in the autonomous driving industry.
Just when the 2024 Beijing Auto Show was in full swing, on the afternoon of April 28, Tesla CEO Elon Musk paid a lightning visit to China.
Regarding this visit to China, the outside world is most concerned about Musk's discussion with the Chinese authorities on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology into China. According to China Daily, citing people familiar with the matter, Musk's trip not only seeks to launch Tesla's most advanced FSD software in China, but also puts forward a proposal to test driverless taxis (robotaxi) in China.
According to the latest report of China Daily, Tesla proposed to land "driverless taxis" in China, and the Chinese government may first support it to test and demonstrate in China, but has not yet fully approved its FSD (Full Self-Driving, full self-driving technology) in China.
From the perspective of domestic enterprises, Pony.ai has also accelerated the pace of commercialization, and has built a set of "technology + vehicle + scenario" golden triangle, including in-depth cooperation between autonomous driving technology, truck manufacturers, and logistics service providers.
Pony.ai's "Golden Triangle" model. Source: Photographed by Xiaguang Society
Xiaguang Society learned from Pony.ai that as of the end of March 2024, Pony.ai's self-driving truck test mileage is nearly 5 million kilometers, Pony.ai's logistics commercial operation mileage exceeds 1.5 million kilometers, and the total freight weight is nearly 25 million ton-kilometers.
With the model, the next step is to continuously reduce costs and outperform positive operations.
He Xing, general manager of Pony.ai Smart Logistics and deputy general manager of Guangzhou R&D Center, observed that when autonomous driving technology breaks through the threshold and can reduce the operating cost of any single truck by 5~10 points, that is, to complete the same work at 90% of the current cost, then there is no need for too much marketing or promotion, and the demand will continue to come in.
In 2023, the self-driving truck industry has experienced a wave of cold weather, with Embark, a world-renowned self-driving truck company, suffering bankruptcy, and TuSimple, a domestic star self-driving truck company, facing delisting and layoffs. For a time, self-driving trucks, which used to be considered a shortcut to autonomous driving, entered a cold cycle.
However, at the beginning of this year, there was a succession of good news on the autonomous truck track, including financing progress, commercial operation, and iterative upgrading of new technology experiences. Industry insiders predict that the domestic commercial vehicle autonomous driving market will recover significantly in 2024.
The Beijing-Tianjin-Tangzhou Expressway is a microcosm. Drivers who run freight on this highway will find that they often encounter some special trucks on this highway these days - self-driving trucks.
The appearance of these cars is not significantly different from ordinary trucks, except that there are more cameras and lidars on the front and body. However, during their driving, the driver can take his hands off the steering wheel, and the vehicle can completely complete the entry and exit of the highway, lane change overtaking, ramp turning, and following the acceleration and deceleration of the vehicle by itself.
Pony Smart Card, there are many lidars and cameras at the front of the car Source: Taken by Xiaguang Society
This expressway (G2 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway Hebei Langfang Section) has been officially used for road testing and demonstration applications of intelligent networked vehicles since April 10 this year. Previously, the Beijing and Tianjin sections of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangzhou Expressway have been opened for intelligent networked vehicle testing. The opening of this section marks the opening of the first high-speed intelligent networked vehicle test and demonstration application road across Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in China.
In the view of Li Hengyu, vice president of Pony.ai, head of the truck business department, and CEO of Qinghu Logistics, the demonstration application of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangzhou Expressway has broken through the limited test area in a single province and city. These are the historical moments of domestic policy breakthroughs, and they are also the prerequisites for the development of smart logistics services.
Just earlier, in January 2024, Pony.ai was the first to be approved to start commercial operation of self-driving trucks in Beijing. In the same month, Pony.ai obtained the first inter-provincial autonomous driving heavy truck license in China. With the approval of China's first inter-provincial autonomous driving heavy truck demonstration application, Pony.ai and Sinotrans have opened up a high-speed trunk logistics and freight network between Beijing and Tianjin, setting a benchmark for L4 autonomous driving heavy truck logistics in North China.
In the past, policy was the biggest obstacle to autonomous driving.
In December 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security and other four departments jointly issued the Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work on the Access and Road Access of Intelligent Connected Vehicles. According to the notice, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments will select intelligent networked vehicle products equipped with autonomous driving functions that are ready for mass production and carry out access pilots; For intelligent networked vehicle products that have obtained access, a pilot project will be carried out in a limited area, and the vehicles used for transportation operations shall meet the operation qualifications and operation management requirements of the competent transportation department.
This has injected a "booster" into the self-driving truck industry, giving hope to self-driving truck companies in the cold winter, and is expected to open a fast track for the commercial landing of high-end autonomous trucks.
In addition, local road tests and commercial pilots of autonomous driving are also accelerating.
At the end of January this year, Bao'an District launched an unmanned commercial pilot of intelligent networked vehicles, becoming the first central urban area in the country to carry out an unmanned commercial pilot. Up to now, the mileage of open roads for autonomous driving in Shenzhen has reached 944 kilometers, including 67 kilometers of high-speed roads. According to data from the Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Bureau, in 2023, a total of 700 intelligent network test demonstration notices will be issued in the city, with a total mileage of 838 kilometers of open test demonstration roads and a cumulative operating mileage of more than 700,000 kilometers of intelligent network tests.
On May 1, the "Hangzhou Intelligent Networked Vehicle Testing and Application Promotion Regulations" was officially implemented, which made provisions on the identification of responsibility for accidents and the subject of punishment. Hangzhou has become the first city in the country to clarify the specific process of autonomous vehicles on the road with local legislation, and it is also the first city in the country to legislate for low-speed unmanned vehicles. On the same day, Hangzhou opened a total of 3,474 square kilometers of the city's eight urban districts and Tonglu urban area as intelligent networked vehicle test application areas, serving more than 10 million people.
On May 6, Zhang Ying, director of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology, said that there were 1,002 test roads in Shanghai, with a test mileage of 2,000 kilometers. After the passage of the Pudong New Area legislation, 7 enterprises and 30 vehicles have been awarded the first batch of driverless road test licenses in the country. In the next step, Shanghai will strengthen the construction of road infrastructure and further connect the test roads in the four districts of Pudong, Lingang, Fengxian and Jiading.
In this way, intelligent networked vehicles can drive across regions, making the scene more abundant.
It is foreseeable that with the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles, the combination of intelligence and electrification will be closer. As autonomous driving brings economies of scale to industries such as trunk logistics and express transportation, autonomous trucks will accelerate the implementation of autonomous driving in the entire commercial vehicle market.