Straight News: The change of Russian defense minister, the former first deputy prime minister in charge of economic affairs Belousov took over from Shoigu, and the latter will be transferred to the secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, which has become the focus of global media attention today, Mr. Guan, what are your observations on this?
Guan Yao: It should be said that the ruling team, or inner circle, established by Putin after the start of the fifth term of the Russian president, is relatively stable and continuous. The Prime Minister and the heads of powerful ministries such as the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Head of the Federal Security Service and the Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service were retained. Lavrov, 76, who has been Russia's foreign minister since 2004, is likely to become the world's longest-serving foreign minister.
Of course, in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine for more than two years, the outside world will pay special attention to any changes in the Russian defense minister. In particular, Putin rarely appointed Belousov, the former first deputy prime minister, who has no military background, to take charge of the Ministry of National Defense, and this personnel arrangement has become the immediate focus of public opinion. The headline in the New York Times today reads that it is a rare cabinet change, while Reuters calls the appointment "unexpected". Sergei Shoigu Lavrov is 6 years old, but his cabinet is older and has been a minister for a longer time. Shoigu rose to prominence in Russian politics at the age of 36, and was appointed Minister of Emergency Affairs by then-President Boris Yeltsin, and two years later was awarded the rank of major general by Yeltsin. Shoigu served as Minister of Emergency Affairs for 20 years, and then as Defense Minister for 11 and a half years. Shoigu has now stepped down from the cabinet and succeeded Patrushev as secretary of the Federal Security Council. This position is responsible for Russia's national strategic design and national security affairs, and is the closest Russian senior official to the president, so the national security adviser is generally considered to have a higher status than the defense minister in the Russian power system.
In this sense, some US and Western media reports that Shoigu has been fired or lost power should be misread or deliberately hyped. Shoigu withdrew from the cabinet, but not from Putin's inner circle of power. As for Patrushev's appointment, the Russian side announced that it would be announced in a few days. The limited reshuffling of Russia's defense squad, especially the replacement of the defense minister by economists, was the focus of the explanation given to the media last night by presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who also remained in office. He emphasized that whoever is more capable of innovating will win on the battlefield, and I think this statement has a lot of meaning.
Straight News: Why does Peskov put special emphasis on innovation, and what are the key signals sent by the adjustment of the Russian cabinet?
Special Commentator Guan Yao: It is worth noting that Peskov did not directly mention the Russia-Ukraine conflict, only referring to it as a "well-known geopolitical background". Peskov claimed that at present, Russia's military security investment is huge, accounting for the overall proportion of the national economy, which is approaching the historical high of 7.4% in the 80s of the last century, when the Soviet Union was still fighting the war in Afghanistan. Peskov disclosed that this year's defense investment accounts for 6.7 percent, and one-third of Russia's government budget this year will be used for military spending. The requirements and difficulties of fine management of the huge military budget have become more and more prominent.
Peskov explained that Putin's appointment of civilian officials as defense ministers was based on two major considerations: first, military spending management; Second, the need for innovation. He also stressed that Belousov is by no means an ordinary civilian official, who served as first deputy prime minister before taking office, successfully took charge of the Ministry of Economic Development, and is one of Putin's most trusted aides in economic affairs. At the same time, in response to the doubts of the outside world, Peskov also made a special response, saying that the Russian armament system and the existing military command will continue to be under the control of Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, and will report directly to President Putin. So Peskov's subtext is very clear, the change of the Russian defense minister does not mean a major adjustment of the Russian war command system. Former Russian diplomat Alexander Bonov pointed out in this analysis that the new defense minister and the chief of the General Staff have a clear division of labor. Pushing the economic chief to the position of defense chief means that Putin will fully mobilize the wartime economy and bring together the national defense and military industrial system and the international market to make breakthroughs in order to win the war. His winning strategy is to mobilize and break through, to integrate the Russian military-industrial complex with Russia's economic advantages, and to exert more pressure on Ukraine.
Therefore, this also means that Russia will further mobilize and emphasize the wartime economy, and be prepared for a protracted war, and the previous personnel arrangements have also sent a clear signal. In addition to Belousov's inauguration as defense minister, the day before, Manturov, former deputy prime minister and minister of industry and trade, was also promoted to succeed first deputy prime minister. After the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia suffered tens of thousands of extreme sanctions from the United States and the West, but the Russian economy did not collapse, and Manturov showed considerable leadership as an industrial chief, successfully mobilizing the production of artillery and ammunition in Russian military industrial enterprises, and the production capacity even exceeded that of all NATO member states combined. For this reason, Russia has vowed to seek scientific and technological leadership in the fields of aircraft production, machine tool building, radio-electronics, and military-industrial complexes in the new strategic environment.
London intelligence analyst Mark Galetti believes that in Russia's wartime state, the mission of the defense minister is to ensure that the military has access to all war resources, and Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff who reports directly to Putin, is the No. 1 military commander-in-chief. The logic of appointing an economic chief to be defense minister is undoubtedly to mobilize all relevant economic sectors in Russia to meet the needs of the defense sector. Therefore, Russia's latest personnel layout means that Putin is making comprehensive preparations for the long-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Straight News: Russia's comprehensive mobilization and layout of a protracted war, what does this mean for the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
Guan Yao: The biggest question now is, if Russia is fully prepared and deployed for a long-term war, will the Ukrainian side and the United States and the West behind it be ready for this? Recently, Russia has stepped up its offensive on Kharkiv, the second largest city near the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the fighting has become more tense again. The Ukrainian army admits that the fighting situation on the Kharkiv front is quite difficult, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces are fully controlling the defensive positions. However, judging from the military power invested by Russia, it is also difficult to fully control Kharkov. It is also worth noting that Ukrainian missiles have also been accused of attacking a Russian house in Belgorod, killing more than a dozen people.
Regarding the latest war between Russia and Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke again last Saturday. In response to whether France would enter the war, Macron posted a video on social media X saying that if Russia moves too far, the EU must act, although France does not want to fight Russia. In a previous interview with the British "Economist", Macron also talked about sending troops to Ukraine, claiming that there are two preconditions: First, the Ukrainian side made a request. Second, there has been a major abrupt change in the battlefield situation between Russia and Ukraine. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine becomes protracted, whether the parties can afford the increasingly heavy costs of the war, and who will bear them, is an increasingly urgent and heavy question.
Author丨Guan Yao, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".