In the early morning of January 27, Beijing time, Tesla released an expected strong financial report, but it did not bring more surprises of the "One More Thing".
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 as of December 31, Tesla's revenue was $17.719 billion, up 65% from $10.744 billion in the same period last year; gross profit was $4.847 billion, up 134.6% from $2.066 billion in the same period last year; net income was $2.343 billion, up 6.9 times from $296 million in the same period last year; and diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $2.05 compared to $0.24% in the year-ago quarter, the report showed.
The strong fourth quarter results hit a new high since Tesla went public. This is also the 10th consecutive quarter of Tesla's profitability, and the first time that net profit has exceeded $2 billion.
Automobiles are Tesla's core business, accounting for more than 90% of revenue. In the fourth quarter, Tesla's automotive business revenue was $15.967 billion, up 71% year-over-year. Among them, automobile sales revenue was 15.339 billion US dollars, and car rental revenue was 628 million US dollars.
In the fourth quarter, Tesla's automotive business gross margin was 30.6%, up 648 basis points from 24.1% in the same period last year, surpassing 30.5% in the third quarter of 2021 and setting a new high again.
At present, the gross profit margin of global mainstream car companies such as Toyota and Volkswagen is usually less than 20%, and some companies are even less than 10%; the domestic new energy vehicle company TOP3 "Wei Xiaoli" is also mostly in this range. Tesla's ability to make money on bicycles stands out from the crowd.
In addition, carbon credit trading, which once contributed most of net profits, brought in $314 million in revenue in the fourth quarter, down 22% year-over-year and accounting for only 1.8% of total revenue. In the first quarter of last year, this part of the revenue was even higher than the net profit of the current quarter.
This means that Tesla no longer relies on selling carbon emission credits to traditional car companies to support its family, the car business has become the core money-making engine, and the entire company's profit model is healthier.
In addition to selling cars, Tesla's business segments also include services and energy storage and power generation. Among them, services mainly include FSD automatic driving kits. Last quarter, revenue from the business was $1,064 million, up 56.9% year-over-year, driven by a surge in vehicle deliveries and a general increase in FSD prices. However, due to the huge upfront investment, its gross profit margin is still negative.
The energy storage power generation business includes solar roofs, Megapack energy storage batteries and other businesses. Tesla has not yet introduced it to China, and domestic consumers do not perceive it deeply, but it is very popular with consumers in the European and American markets, with revenue of $688 million in the last quarter, down 8.5% year-on-year, mainly due to production capacity constraints.
Before the earnings report, Tesla had announced in early January that the delivery volume for 2021 was 936,000 units, an increase of 87% over 2020; of that, it was 309,000 units in the fourth quarter, an increase of 71% year-on-year. Both figures significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations.
On the analyst call after the earnings report, Tesla CEO Musk reappeared after half a year. In addition to "liking" his own company, Musk did not announce unexpected new products, only mentioning the Optimus humanoid robot that debuted last August, saying that "over time, Optimus may become more important than the car business." ”
A
Last quarter, Tesla achieved a gross profit margin of up to 30.6%. Behind the beautiful financial data is the great contribution of "Made in China".
This contribution is first reflected in production capacity.
Tesla said in the earnings presentation material: "Local production is critical to reducing unit production costs and improving the stability of global supply chains. The Shanghai Gigafactory continues to be our main export node. ”
In 2021, tesla's Shanghai plant continued to climb production, with annual deliveries of 484,000 units, accounting for 51.7% of global deliveries; in addition to domestic sales, it also exported more than 160,000 units to more than 10 countries such as Europe and Asia.
At present, Tesla has a gigafactory in California and Shanghai in China, with an annual production capacity of hundreds of thousands of vehicles; a new factory is built in Berlin, Germany, and Texas, the United States, which was originally planned to be put into operation at the end of 2021, but due to the epidemic and other factors, large-scale production has not yet started, and it takes time for production capacity to climb.
This means that in the next few quarters, the Shanghai factory, which has been in production for two years, will still act as Tesla's global engine. The automobile is a typical economy of scale, and the reason why Tesla's gross profit margin is rising is closely related to the expansion of production capacity in the Shanghai factory.
In addition, Tesla's Shanghai factory has continuously reduced production costs through the localization of supply chains and the sharing of parts and components for different models. At present, the plant has achieved more than 90% of the supply chain localization, and the Model 3 and Model Y models can share 75% of the parts.
According to the financial report, Tesla's total electric vehicle production in 2021 is 930,422 units, an increase of 83% year-on-year. Among them, the Model S and Model X were 24,390 units, a decrease of 55% year-on-year; the Model 3 and Model Y were 906,032 units, an increase of 99% year-on-year.
Second, Chinese suppliers have significantly pulled down Tesla's supply chain costs.
As early as February 2020, Tesla signed a supply agreement with the domestic power battery company CATL. In June last year, the two sides renewed their contracts, and CATL will continue to supply Tesla from January 2022 to December 2025.
Tesla announced in October last year that its main model, the Model 3/Y, would switch to lithium iron phosphate batteries worldwide. Compared with ternary lithium batteries, this battery is slightly less efficient, but the cost is lower, which helps to further reduce the price of the vehicle.
CATL is one of the main suppliers of Tesla lithium iron phosphate batteries. According to the Securities Times, in January this year, CATL had already leased a factory building in Lingang, Shanghai, only 3 kilometers from the Tesla factory, specializing in the production and supply of batteries. In addition, CATL also plans to build a new battery factory in Shanghai with an annual output of 80GWh batteries.
Capacity growth and cost reduction have given Tesla more pricing space and easier to find a balance between sales and price. Last year, Tesla repeatedly lowered its price in China, but the gross profit margin did not fall but rose.
Tesla doesn't plan to put all its eggs in one basket, though.
On the one hand, Tesla wants to replicate its localization strategy outside of China, with the key being the Berlin factory in Germany, which is oriented to Europe. The plant is already producing the Model Y on a small scale and is scheduled to start delivery in March this year.
It is foreseeable that as the production capacity of the Berlin plant increases, the export volume of the Shanghai plant will gradually decrease. Tesla will therefore reduce a significant amount of shipping and tariff expenses.
Tesla, on the other hand, is working on a high-performance 4680 battery, and the first Model Y to use such batteries will be delivered this quarter and produced at the Austin plant in the United States. At present, the potential foundries of this battery include Panasonic, LG and so on. At that time, the position of domestic manufacturers in Tesla's supply chain system will face no small challenge.
B
On today's earnings call, Musk revealed Tesla's next product roadmap, placating car owners who paid a deposit early while also disappointing other users who were looking forward to cheaper new cars.
Musk said it plans to launch an electric pickup truck CyberTruck, an electric truck head Semi and a new generation of Roadster sports cars in 2023. Tesla will not release a new model in 2022.
CyberTruck, which debuted in November 2019, was a hit as soon as it was released, accumulating more than 1.25 million orders, but the production time has been postponed from the end of 2021 to the end of 2022, and now to 2023.
Musk said on social media yesterday that he had test-driven cybertruck's latest prototype at the Texas Gigafactory in the United States, and that "the experience was great."
However, Tesla's layout electric pickup truck got up early in the morning, but it rushed to a late set.
American electric vehicle company Rivian is Tesla's main rival in the field of pickup trucks, and its first model, R1T, began delivery in October last year, and the media and users have given it praise. Tesla CyberTruck will have to wait at least 1 year, leaving Rivian with a considerable gap in the market.
In addition, Musk denied the rumors of Tesla's $25,000 electric car, saying that the company was not conducting research and development in this area.
He said the current focus is on achieving true autonomous driving and reducing transportation costs by 4 to 5 times. The current business is too busy with a large number of products; the company may launch a low-cost new car at some point in the future.
High-end tree brands and low-end sales are Tesla's long-term strategies. This style of play has been proven, especially in the Chinese market.
According to public data, the domestic market sales of Tesla Model Y and Model 3 in 2021 were 167,000 units and 151,000 units, respectively, ranking third and fourth in the sales list of new energy single models. The low-priced Wuling Hongguang MINI and BYD Qin occupy the top two.
If in 2023 or later, Tesla releases a cheaper model, it will once again play the role of "price butcher", which is expected to pull the price to less than 200,000 yuan; and domestic manufacturers such as "Wei Xiaoli" will face more brutal competition.
C
Fully expanding production capacity is the primary goal that Musk has set for Tesla at this stage.
Tesla said that in the fourth quarter of last year, challenges in the global supply chain, transportation, labor and other aspects limited the factory to achieve full capacity. The chip shortage that has long plagued the global auto industry will still exist and will ease in 2023.
Musk said that production has begun at two super factories in Texas and Berlin, Germany. The Texas plant has already started production of the Model Y and is about to start delivery; the Berlin plant began testing equipment last month, but the distance to mass production is still awaiting approval from the authorities. In addition, Tesla plans to maximize production at its california and Shanghai plants.
On the earnings call, Musk announced that this year will be the site for the next Tesla gigafactory, and the results are expected to be announced by the end of the year.
Musk
Musk is optimistic about full-year production, believing it will grow by more than 50% in 2022. This means that Tesla will achieve an annual production of more than one million vehicles for the first time.
In addition to electric vehicles, humanoid robots are Musk's key publicity targets. "Over time, Optimus has the potential to become more important than the automotive business." Musk said.
Musk said that developing the Optimus humanoid robot is one of Tesla's most important jobs this year. The machine will first be deployed at Tesla factories for moving parts. Musk believes this will help solve the labor shortage.
Last August, Tesla unveiled a humanoid robot on AI Day. At the time, Musk said that robots can not only perform a variety of tasks, but also potentially develop unique personalities and become "companions who help humans in different ways."
But judging from the latest remarks, Musk's robots have finally been reduced to beating workers.
In addition to hard technologies such as electric vehicles and robots, another focus of attention from the outside world is Bitcoin. Tesla disclosed in its earnings report that the company did not sell digital assets in the fourth quarter, and the value of bitcoin held at the end of the quarter remained unchanged compared to the end of the previous quarter, at $1.26 billion.
Tesla bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in early 2021 for $35,000. This investment does not carry much weight in Tesla's financial statements, but it is frequently exposed under the encouragement of Musk and the outside world.
Last March, Musk announced on social media that Tesla products could be purchased with Bitcoin. But two months later, Musk called off the payment method because of "concerns about environmental impacts." He said that once the share of renewable energy in the bitcoin mining process increases by 50%, Tesla will accept bitcoin again.
But the more real reason, I am afraid, is that Bitcoin has soared and plummeted, making Tesla really unbearable. As of last week, Bitcoin had fallen to around $33,000, even lower than Tesla's original purchase price. In this case, Tesla naturally cannot allow the speculators to "shave wool".
In U.S. stock trading on Wednesday, Tesla reported $937.41, up 2.07%. After the earnings report, Tesla fell 0.79% in after-hours trading.
Since Tesla had already released the benefit of a large increase in deliveries in early January, it was not surprising that the stock price was stable on the day of the earnings report. However, despite the strong sales of existing models, new products such as Cyberteruck are still in the pie-making stage, and the Optimus humanoid robot is flying in the sky, which has also more or less affected investors' expectations.
At present, Tesla's stock price has retreated from a 52-week high of $1243.49 to a $900 range, a decline of more than 30%; the market value has also fallen below $1 trillion. In the case of the short-term positive basic release, tesla to boost the stock price is not easy. Silicon Valley Iron Man Musk, in addition to the imagination, needs to come up with a more convincing vision.