Author: Mr. Yuwen
TYPESETTING: LEAHMA
Exhibit: SOlab
Recently, Renesas, AMD, Intel, TI and other semiconductor upstream IC manufacturers released their 2022 full-year and Q4 financial reports. Through the financial report data, we can predict how semiconductor IDM factories view the market change trend in 2023.
Renesas: Demand for 40nm automotive MCUs remains strong
On February 9, Renesas Electronics announced consolidated financial results for the year ended December 31, 2022, of which revenue was 1.5 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 51%; Operating profit was 424.17 billion yen, up 144.0% y/y. The company said that the growth was mainly due to strong demand for automotive chip business.
From the table below, Renesas' business is mainly manifested in two aspects: first, automobiles; The second is industry/infrastructure/Internet of Things. The company's quarterly revenue data shows that the automotive segment business increased by 28.8% year-on-year and 7.5% month-on-month; Industrial/Infrastructure/IoT up 22% year-over-year and down 3.5% sequentially. The most impressive performance was in the automotive business.
In the automotive business, strong demand centered on 40nm process microcontrollers will continue. In the industrial, infrastructure, and IoT (Internet of Things) businesses, the adjustment phase will continue, focusing on PC, mobile, and consumer. Renesas said it would manage it carefully in order not to overstock inventory.
Renesas forecasts a decline in sales in the first quarter of 2023, and the total profit margin on sales is expected to be affected by higher increases in production adjustments, manufacturing costs, raw materials, and electricity costs. Regarding the PC-related adjustment phase, Renesas President and CEO Hidetoshi Shibata said that the mainstream view is that the bottom will be reached around the second quarter, and the industrial sector is expected to remain firm.
Shibata said: "In terms of overall volume and value, although the scale is small, the output value will continue to grow. There is little channel stock in the industrial sector, there is quite a shortage of chips, so we are in a situation where we need to constantly manufacture products for industry. ”
AMD: Semiconductors in 2023 are mixed, and the second half of the year will be stronger than the first half
On January 31, 2023, according to AMD's report for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022, the company's revenue in the fourth quarter of last year (2022) increased by 16% year-on-year to $5.6 billion, mainly due to significant growth in the embedded and data center segments, which accounted for more than 50% of total revenue in the quarter. For the full year, AMD's annual revenue grew 44% to $23.6 billion.
In the fourth quarter, AMD's four major business segments generated revenue as follows:
One: Data Center segment revenue of $1.7 billion, up 42% year-over-year, driven by strong sales of EPYC server processors;
Second: Client revenue of $903 million, down 51% year-over-year, due to lower processor shipments due to the weak PC market and significant inventory adjustments across the PC supply chain;
Three: Gaming segment revenue of $1.6 billion, down 7% year-over-year, partially offset by higher semi-custom product revenue from lower gaming graphics card sales;
IV: Embedded segment revenue was $1.4 billion, up 1.868% year-over-year, primarily due to the inclusion of Xilinx embedded revenue.
In terms of business, AMD data center server growth is eye-catching, with an annual growth rate of up to 42%, showing that AMD has succeeded in the server market, although AMD pointed out that due to the rise in the inventory level of cloud service customers, data center revenue will decline in the first quarter of 2023, but the company also expects that the data center market will become stronger in the second half of the year, bringing warmth to the data center server industry.
AMD expects revenue in the first quarter of 2023 to be about $5.3 billion, fluctuating by $300 million, with an annual decline rate of about 10%. AMD expects the Client & Gaming business to decline from the same period last year, partially offset by growth in the Embedded & Data Center business, AMD expects the PC market business to bottom out this quarter, and the data center business will continue to win, driving operating growth this year.
AMD CEO Lisa Su said, "As we move into 2023, we expect the overall demand environment to be mixed, with the second half stronger than the first. In the PC market, we plan for the PC TAM (total addressable market) to decline by about 10% by 2023. At the same time, Lisa Su also admitted that it is imposing restrictions on the supply of CPUs and GPUs to maintain high chip prices. At present, most models such as RX7900XT and RX7900XTX in the AMD market are out of stock.
Intel: In the future, focus on the high-computing power market
From recent Intel reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 financial data, revenue for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $14 billion, down 32% year-over-year and 8% sequentially. DCAI and NEX revenues were in line with expectations, while CCG was impacted by weak PC demand. For the full year, revenue was $63.1 billion, down 20% year-over-year.
Intel's business is divided into two categories: traditional business and emerging business. At present, traditional business revenue accounts for 93%, including data center and artificial intelligence (DCAI) business unit, client computing business unit (CCG), network and edge business unit (NEX). Emerging businesses accounted for 7% of revenue, including the Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics Group (AXG), Intel Foundry Services (IFS) and Mobileye.
The company's CCG revenue declined significantly to $6.6 billion, down 36% year-over-year, as macroeconomic headwinds caused PC TAM to deteriorate faster than expected. Customer inventory remains above Intel's previous expectations and will continue into the first half of 2023.
Fourth-quarter DCAI revenue of $4.3 billion increased 2% sequentially, with higher average selling prices offsetting weak demand and declining 33% year-over-year, driven by contraction in TAM and competitive pressures.
NEX revenue of $2.1 billion fell 1% as lower global GDP impacted the Edge business, offsetting growth in Xeon Networks CPUs and growth in Intel's Mounts Evans infrastructure processing units.
Looking at Intel's emerging markets business, it achieved positive growth throughout the year and in the fourth quarter. AXG was $247 million, up 1%. IFS was $319 million, up 30%. Mobileye was $565 million, up 59%.
In terms of business development, Intel's data center and artificial intelligence (DCAI) business unit and client computing business unit both suffered heavy losses, and the customer terminal computing business unit, whose main products are personal computer processors, was also affected by the rise in PC inventory, with revenue falling by 36% and operating profit ratio falling by 82%. The Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) division is not immune. The data center has been Intel's "profitable product" in the past, with a global market share of 95%, but its revenue fell 33% in the fourth quarter and its operating profit ratio fell by 84%.
In response to last year's dismal performance growth, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger recently announced an organizational restructuring and decided not to invest in the network switching product line, only maintain the existing products, and vowed to regain the world's top process throne in 2025; With other new ventures still under $1 billion, Intel is betting on the high-speed computing market.
Looking ahead to 2023, Intel expects PC TAM to be at the low end of the 270-295 range this year, with 1H23 server consumption TAM declining year-over-year and returning to growth in 2H23. In the first half of the year, the PC ecosystem will continue to clean up inventory. It is understood that Intel's latest server product Sapphire Rapids, which is scheduled to start mass production in the second quarter of this year, was originally scheduled to come out last year, but Intel delayed the official release at the beginning of this year.
In addition to the expected increase in computing speed, Sapphire Rapids will support DDR5 specification DRAM and PCIe Gen 5 bus, which will be expected to increase the computing speed of the server simultaneously, and more than 15 Taiwanese OEM/ODM factories such as Inventec, Wistron and Acer have joined the new product supply chain.
TI: The automotive business performed well
The market as a whole recovered in the second half of the year
Texas Instruments is the world's largest manufacturer of analog circuit components and digital signal processors, and its analog and digital signal processing chip technology is a global leader. According to the recent Texas Instruments (TI) fourth quarter 2022 financial report and performance briefing minutes, the company's fourth-quarter revenue was $4.67 billion, a significant year-on-year/sequential decline in revenue.
From the perspective of end markets, TI's main revenue sources are automotive and industrial, which together account for about 65% of TI's revenue. Markets such as personal electronics, communication equipment, and enterprise systems have lower revenue contributions. From the perspective of TI's fourth-quarter revenue in all markets, except for automobiles, the company's other end market revenue decreased sequentially. The reason is that customers are continuing to reduce inventory.
TI expects Texas Instruments' full-year revenue and profit to decline by 9% and 19%, respectively, in the first half of 2023. But like many other chipmakers, Texas Instruments expects the broader semiconductor market to recover in the second half of the year.