Wu Qi: Policies and demand jointly promote the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market

Zhongxin Jingwei January 26 Title: Policies and demand jointly promote the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market

Author Wu Qi Executive Director of Wuxi Digital Economy Research Institute

Recently, the relevant departments of the state have intensively issued policies related to new energy vehicles. The State Council issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" Modern Comprehensive Transportation System Development Plan; the National Development and Reform Commission and other seven departments issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Green Consumption" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Plan"), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 2022 Annual Work Conference of the Inter-ministerial Joint Conference on Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development, which analyzed the development status of China's new energy vehicles and deployed the key work of the new energy automobile industry in 2022; the Ministry of Transport issued the "14th Five-Year Development Plan for Green Transportation". It is proposed to accelerate the promotion and application of new energy and clean energy transportation equipment. In this regard, we have the following understanding and judgment.

First, the policy of new energy vehicles supports diversification, and it is no longer simply using subsidies to create demand. In the case of further decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles and strict relevant regulatory policies, sales are still increasing, consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles has become higher and higher, the market's dependence on policies has decreased, and the demand for new energy vehicles is no longer simply created by subsidies. In addition, from the perspective of the policies recently introduced, although the subsidies for new energy vehicles are gradually declining, the policy support and guidance related to new energy vehicles are being strengthened, and it can be seen that China has slowly jumped out of the primary stage of the popularization of new energy vehicles that rely on subsidies to create demand, and has begun to enter the intermediate stage of accelerating the construction of new energy vehicle infrastructure, promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the new energy automobile industry.

Second, there is still a huge market space for the consumption of new energy vehicles. According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales showed year-on-year growth in 2021, ending the decline for three consecutive years since 2018. Among them, new energy vehicles became the biggest bright spot, with annual sales of more than 3.5 million units, an increase of 157.5% year-on-year. At the beginning of 2021, the state further reduced the direct subsidies for the consumption of new energy vehicles, causing market concerns about the future consumption prospects of new energy vehicles. This time, the "Implementation Plan" specifically proposes to vigorously promote new energy vehicles, gradually cancel the purchase restrictions of new energy vehicles in various places, promote the implementation of support policies such as free travel restrictions and right of way, and carry out in-depth activities for new energy vehicles to go to the countryside, and encourage automobile companies to develop and promote new energy vehicles that meet the travel needs of rural residents, are of high quality and low price, and are advanced and applicable. This has opened up a market space for the popularization of new energy vehicle consumption. According to the forecast of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, China's new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach about 22%. In the future, although the policy subsidies for new energy vehicles have declined, the policy guidance will continue to increase, the consumption concept of new energy vehicles will be more popular, and gradually move towards market-oriented development, and consumer demand will usher in sustained growth.

Third, "power exchange + energy storage" can make up for the shortcomings of charging piles, and is expected to become an important way for new energy vehicles to replenish energy. At present, China's new energy vehicle replenishment methods are mainly based on charging, but at present, the total number of charging piles and the ratio of vehicles to piles in China are still relatively low, and the regional distribution is seriously uneven, which restricts the energy replenishment efficiency of electric vehicles. At the same time, the form of charging pile-based energy replenishment still has difficulties such as charging time is too long, the efficiency is too low, and the requirements for land and power grid are too high, which has become an important factor restricting the popularity of new energy vehicles in the whole scene. Power exchange is replenished by directly replacing the battery, which can form an effective scene complementary with the charging mode and jointly promote the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. The "Implementation Plan" proposes, "Promote the pilot work of the application of the new energy vehicle power exchange model, and orderly carry out the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles." "In the future, we should give full play to the energy storage characteristics of power batteries, explore and promote orderly charging, V2G and other forms, and realize the collaborative interaction between electric vehicles and the power grid." Promote the power exchange mode in scenarios such as mines, ports, and urban transfer according to local conditions; at the same time, explore the shared power exchange mode in the fields of leasing, logistics and transportation, and optimize and improve the shared power exchange service.

Fourth, the construction of photovoltaics along the route can effectively alleviate mileage anxiety and broaden the use scenarios of new energy vehicles. Distributed photovoltaic construction along the line uses the road surface of the highway, the facilities along the line and the surrounding environment to achieve solar photovoltaic power generation, and can also provide power for the highway facilities themselves and residents along the line, so as to achieve the efficient integration and optimal unification of six major functions such as photovoltaic power generation, transportation, energy conservation and emission reduction, safe driving, road maintenance, and farmland protection. In addition, the construction of photovoltaics along the highway can also eliminate the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles in long-distance use, make up for the shortcomings of new energy vehicles in long-distance high-speed use, and help further expand the new energy vehicle market and promote the development of green transportation. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

Wu Qi

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Editor-in-Charge: Zhang Zhihan