Suddenly, layout hybrid technology seems to have become the "label" of first-line independent brands.
In 2021, BYD broke the sales record with its hybrid models exceeding 4 times, becoming the most powerful independent car company of the year.
At the same time, other first-line independent car companies have also entered the game and accelerated the launch of their own hybrid systems. Only in 2021 will release the new self-brand hybrid system: BYD DM-i hybrid, Great Wall Lemon hybrid, Changan Blue Whale hybrid, Geely Raytheon power, Chery Kunpeng hybrid and so on.
The large-scale launch of the hybrid has two major benefits for the industry.
From the perspective of consumers, the launch of self-owned brand hybrid models has increased the choice of the former, and is no longer limited by Japanese hybrids. Compared with fuel vehicles, hybrid vehicles bring better driving quality and can also solve the problem of difficulty in getting a license.
From an enterprise level, the introduction of hybrid models can greatly reduce the pressure on their points. After all, in the increasingly stringent environment of the "double credit" policy, points largely determine the financial health of enterprises.
But there are both positive and negative sides to everything.
First of all, the hybrid technology itself has a high threshold, and without deep internal combustion engine design experience and a strong supply chain, it is impossible to play hybrid. Moreover, the control logic of the hybrid system is extremely complex and precise, and it is necessary to spend a huge amount of research and development costs to create a hybrid system that takes into account performance, fuel consumption, driving quality, stability and cost.
Therefore, we see that not only can new power brands such as "Wei Xiaoli" not do hybridization, but also a minority of traditional car companies that can play this technology.
In addition, from the perspective of industry trends, pure electric vehicles to replace fuel vehicles will become an inevitable trend, and hybrid as a transition program between the two, it seems that there will not be too long a life cycle, direct one-step all in pure electricity seems to be a better choice, such as Volkswagen is doing so.
At the same time, relevant policies are also gradually weakening the "privilege" of hybrid models. For example, since the introduction of the purchase restriction policy, Beijing has not recognized the new energy identity of hybrid models. With the development of pure electric power, other cities will also follow suit. Among them, the Shanghai government has given a clear time point: from January 1, 2023, users who purchase PHEV (plug-in hybrid) models, including range extenders, will not be able to get a free green card.
In such a situation, is it necessary for car companies to invest huge capital and time costs to create hybrid technology? For car companies with internal combustion engine technology, is the market effect brought about by hybrids "returning to the light" or "setting sun"?
In addition, for consumers, the Japanese "two fields" monopoly of the hybrid market for nearly two decades, its technological maturity and reputation in terms of huge advantages. Is autonomous hybridization a better option for consumers? Among the independent brands, who is the best "mixed"?
What is the mixture of independent brands entering the game?
For the development of the automotive industry in mainland China, policy is a decisive factor.
In addition to the "double integral" mentioned above, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" released in 2020 is also an important reason for promoting car companies to accelerate the development of hybrids. Although the roadmap is not a mandatory policy, it can be seen as a very important guideline, and subsequent policies will be developed and adjusted around these plans.
According to the roadmap, Mainland Plans to account for more than 50% of the sales of traditional energy passenger cars (including HEV models that do not give new energy vehicle licenses) by 2025, and this proportion will reach more than 75% in 2030, compared with 100% in 2035. At that time, the penetration rate of new energy models will reach about 50%, which means that HEV still has a market share of about 50%.
Therefore, although hybrid is a transition program, its transition period is extremely long.
At least in the next 15 years or so, hybrid models will be the mainstream automotive products that go hand in hand with pure electric models. If you give up hybridization, it is equivalent to giving up nearly half of the market share.
Moreover, from the actual point of view, the planning of the road map also has its rationality. Considering the large population and high density of the mainland, switching directly from fuel to pure electric will cause huge pressure on the energy replenishment system, and before the infrastructure is not mature, "pure electricity for all" does not have practical significance.
For car companies that have the ability to do hybrids, this market must not be abandoned. Before the advent of the "pure electricity for all" era, whether or not to seize the "golden 15 years" of hybridization (or even longer) will largely determine the market position and volume of enterprises. With a solid family foundation, there will be enough confidence when it comes to the next stage of the market.
In addition, for the current independent brands, as long as they master the mature PHEV technology, it is not difficult to transform to DO HEV, and the hybrid architecture of some car companies itself can be compatible with HEV and PHEV, such as the Great Wall and Geely.
Regarding the above-mentioned licensing policy issues, with the development of new energy vehicle technology, the current sales of new energy vehicles have shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and more and more consumers are willing to take the initiative to buy new energy vehicles.
Image credit: AX Automotive Research
In 2019 and 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in non-restricted cities was only 4.2% and 5.9%, and reached 14.3% in 2021.
In the sales ranking of new energy vehicles in non-restricted cities, WE CAN SEE BYD Qin PLUS DM and Song PLUS DM and other PHEV models, which shows that hybrid models are becoming more and more accepted by consumers in non-restricted cities.
In the past, due to the imperfection of the industrial chain, such as the high cost of motors and power batteries required for PHEV models, coupled with the lack of maturity of technology to meet consumer expectations in terms of fuel consumption, its market competitiveness was insufficient, so it could only be protected by policies.
Now, with the advent of a large number of independent brand new hybrid technology, after greatly optimizing the cost and fuel consumption, it has fully equipped to challenge the market competitiveness of fuel vehicles, and THE HOT SALES OF BYD DM-i in non-restricted cities are strong proof. Therefore, the change in the license policy, although it will have a short-term impact on the sales of hybrid models, cannot change the general trend, and the decline of new energy subsidies is a reason.
Can we break the Japanese hybrid monopoly?
In the past nearly 20 years, the domestic hybrid market has basically been monopolized by the Japanese "two fields". Although independent brands have tried in this field, they have not stirred up too much waves. So far, Toyota's THS system has been around for 25 years, and Honda has been in the hybrid field for 23 years.
The first independent brand to explore hybrid technology is BYD, which launched DM1.0 as early as 2008, and created a precedent for the industry's dual motors (drive motor + generator) series parallel hybrid architecture, Honda launched in 2013 i-mmd is to learn from this architecture to create, but both sides are not the inventors of the technology, the hybrid architecture comes from a small company of Mingjiao PAICE, although it does not build cars, but by authorizing hybrid patents for car companies has obtained huge profits.
Speaking of BYD, although BYD is the first car company to use the dual motor series parallel hybrid architecture, but because it has just entered the automotive industry at that time (2003 began to build cars), the internal combustion engine technology is not yet mature, new energy models have not yet formed a scale effect, the cost of the three-electric system remains high, resulting in the high price of its hybrid system.
The first BYD F3 DM equipped with DM1.0 system has a starting price of up to 149,800 yuan, which is nearly 100,000 yuan more expensive than the fuel version of F3, which is unacceptable to most consumers. You know, even if it is a Japanese hybrid, its price is only 20,000-30,000 yuan more expensive than the same fuel-powered model. In the end, BYD's first exploration of hybrid technology failed.
Although in the next dozen years, in order to reduce the difficulty and cost of development, BYD changed the previous dual motor series parallel architecture to a "simple and crude" single motor parallel architecture, the simple understanding is to add a small three-electric system on the basis of fuel vehicles.
Although this architecture has helped BYD reduce costs to a certain extent, this is a relatively backward architecture after all, and the most obvious drawback is the high fuel consumption of feeders.
Since a single motor cannot combine drive and power generation at the same time (both functions can be taken into account, but not at the same time), a single-motor architecture cannot achieve a series mode (the engine drives the generator to generate electricity, and the drive motor drives the vehicle). Since the efficiency of the motor in the low-speed range is much higher than that of the engine, the tandem mode is the most efficient mode in the medium and low-speed working conditions after the vehicle is fed), then after the feeding, it can only be switched to parallel (the engine and the drive motor drive the vehicle together) or direct drive mode, and the engine is responsible for both driving and power generation, so it will lead to a surge in fuel consumption. For example, the early Tang DM and other models, whose feed fuel consumption is even higher than 10L/100km, have lost their significance as hybrids.
▲A certain engine thermal efficiency map
▲A motor efficiency map
In contrast, both Toyota's hybrid architecture and Honda's tandem-parallel architecture can work in an efficient mode under a variety of operating conditions. Then BYD, which was still using the parallel architecture at that time, could not compete with the Japanese hybrid.
Even with policy protection (only PHEV in China can be green carded and enjoy subsidies, while Japanese hybrids are mostly HEVs), BYD hybrid models have not sold much before, with sales of only 48,000 vehicles in 2020, an average of about 4,000 units per month. Not only can it not pose a threat to fuel vehicles, but it cannot shake the status of Japanese hybrids.
In addition to BYD, including Changan, Geely, Roewe and other independent brands have also launched PHEV models, but the market performance is not as good as BYD, there is almost no sound in the market, and can only obtain a pitiful market share in the restricted cities.
However, with the arrival of a new hybrid system, BYD DM-i, the Japanese hybrid felt unprecedented pressure.
In the field of A-segment cars, the Japanese hybrid represented by the Corolla hybrid will directly face the Qin PLUS DM-i. The former is priced at 135,800-15.98 million yuan, while the latter is priced at 105,800-14.58 million yuan. Not only is the price more advantageous, the Qin PLUS DM-i also has stronger power than the former, longer pure electric mileage, larger body size, and comparable fuel consumption levels. Even without considering the convenience and subsidies of the brand, Qin PLUS DM-i is a product that surpasses the Corolla hybrid in all directions in addition to brand power.
In the field of A-class SUVs, models represented by RAV4 hybrids and CR-V hybrids must not only face the competition of the same level song PLUS DM-i, but also face the dimensionality reduction blow of the mid-size SUV Tang DM-i.
The emergence of BYD DM-i is a microcosm, and we will see more hybrid models with strong market competitiveness in the future.
In the field of fuel vehicles, independent brands have continuously eroded the market share of joint venture brands in recent years with high cost performance and misplaced competition strategies. The same drama will be staged again after the hybrid car becomes mainstream.
Which is stronger in autonomous hybridization?
Why did BYD DM-i quickly capture the market?
The main reason is that it returns to the previous dual motor series parallel architecture, although bydir's previous attempts in this technical route have failed, but today is different from the past, today's BYD has made great progress in internal combustion engine technology, three-electric technology, industrial chain layout, etc., and has the strength to create a new and balanced hybrid system.
The BYD DM-i system consists of a hybrid engine, dual motors, an EHS electromechanical coupling mechanism, and a blade battery.
Because in this hybrid system, the engine will not drive directly under inefficient conditions such as low and medium speed, so it cancels the intake side VVT (variable valve timing), pulley train and other mechanisms, effectively reducing the engine load and manufacturing costs.
In terms of three electricity, the flat-line motor, blade battery, and silicon carbide power semiconductor chip used in the DM-i system are all self-produced, which compresses the cost to the extreme under the premise of meeting performance standards.
▲DM1.0 on the left and DM-i on the right
In addition, from the design level, compared with DM1.0, the new DM-i adopts the design of the drive motor and the engine heteroaxial arrangement, which can put down a larger volume of the engine, which is conducive to the application of high-end models such as Tang DM-i, while the early DM1.0 with coaxial arrangement can only use a 1.0L three-cylinder engine.
At present, the hybrid system architecture is roughly divided into three types. The first is the dual motor series parallel architecture used by BYD DM-i and Honda, the second is the power shunt hybrid architecture used by Toyota, and the third is the single-motor parallel architecture used in BYD DM2.0/3.0.
Because the planetary gear process in the power shunt architecture is complex and the manufacturing threshold is high, and the single motor parallel architecture is relatively backward, the dual motor series parallel architecture is the mainstream today. In addition to BYD, Great Wall and Chery also use this hybrid architecture.
Compared with BYD and Honda, the hybrid architecture of the Great Wall and Chery has taken a step forward in terms of performance and driving quality, and the core factor is the addition of multi-gear transmission mechanisms. Among them, the Great Wall has added a 2-speed gearbox, while Chery is 3-speed.
▲Great Wall lemon hybrid
According to conventional thinking, in the case of a drive motor, the vehicle does not need a multi-gear gearbox, because the efficient working range of the motor itself is much wider than that of the internal combustion engine (as can be seen from the map above), so it is only necessary to set a moderate fixed gear ratio to meet the daily driving. This is the same in pure electric vehicles, most pure electric vehicles are single-speed direct drive, only Porsche Taycan, which pursues extreme performance, will match the 2-speed gearbox to make up for the weakness of the motor's high speed and lack of strength.
But for the Great Wall and Chery, they do not have the layout of the whole industry chain like BYD in the field of new energy, and the cost and cost performance are obviously unwise, so these two have chosen a high-quality route, that is, to provide a better power experience while ensuring low fuel consumption, then adding a multi-gear gearbox is inevitable.
Take the same level of BYD Song Pro DM-i and WEY Macchiato PHEV as an example, the former engine power and drive motor power are 81kW and 132kW/145kW, respectively, the latter two data are 71kW and 115kW. From the book data, the power of Song Pro DM-i should be stronger than that of Macchido PHEV, but in fact, the former has an acceleration time of 8.5 seconds/7.9 seconds per 100 kilometers, and the latter has achieved 7.2 seconds.
The main reason for this difference is that the latter adds a multi-gear gearbox, giving the system a wider parallel mode working range, which can be "fully fired" when accelerating sharply in the low and medium speed range. Because the latter is a fixed gear ratio, it can only set a relatively centered gear ratio to take into account fuel consumption and power, so that the full working condition coverage of the parallel mode cannot be realized. In addition, the feed fuel consumption of the two is similar, between 4.4L-4.5L/100km.
Under the premise that fuel consumption is almost flat, it provides stronger power, so what is the cost? Of course, it's the cost.
Still using the two cars just now, the price range of song Pro DM-i is 134,800-15.98 million yuan, and the price range of Macchiato PHEV is 166,800-17.78 million yuan.
Of course, not all independent car companies use a dual-motor series parallel architecture, which is related to their own research and development capabilities and technology accumulation. There are two exceptions, one is Auspicious and the other is Chang'an.
Let's start with Auspicious. When the Toyota hybrid technology patent expired in 2019, Geely obtained the authorization of the patent at a price of 1 yuan. Its latest Thor hybrid is based on the Toyota THS hybrid architecture, which is characterized by power shunting and stepless speed change through planetary gears.
▲R is the drive motor, C is the engine, S is the generator, + represents forward rotation, and - represents reversal
From the structural point of view, because the planetary gears cannot achieve decoupling between the components, the architecture cannot achieve series or direct engine drive. When it should be connected in series, the engine will also participate in the drive (corresponding to b above); when the engine should be directly driven, the drive motor and the engine will also participate in the drive (corresponding to C above, the generator reversal represents participating in the drive), which will bring some energy loss.
But it is also because of the planetary gears that the system can distribute the power of each power source in the most reasonable way under different working conditions, and minimize the energy loss. Therefore, from the perspective of performance and fuel consumption, the architecture is comparable to the dual motor series parallel architecture, such as toyota and Honda's hybrid vehicles of the same level, in most cases, they can only play a draw, and there is no obvious high and low.
And like the Great Wall and Chery, in order to improve the power, Geely also added a multi-gear transmission (Geely is 3 gears) on the basis of the original architecture, so the latest Star-Yue L hybrid version of the 100-kilometer acceleration time reached 7.9 seconds, better than Tang DM-i's 8.5 seconds.
But for Geely, the architecture's biggest risks don't come from performance, fuel consumption or cost, but from the supply chain. Although it cost almost no money to acquire Toyota's hybrid patents, Toyota has an almost paranoid "desire to control" the supply chain, including Aisin, Denso, Yamaha and other head parts companies are under Toyota or held by Toyota.
As one of the world's largest car giants, Toyota's ambitions are far more than selling cars, and controlling the supply chain of the global automotive industry is its ultimate goal. Geely uses the same hybrid architecture as Toyota, which will inevitably enter Toyota's supply chain system.
For example, for planetary gears that require extremely high manufacturing accuracy, Geely may not have the ability to produce them independently. When Chery first made hybrids, it tried the power shunt architecture, but because the processing difficulty of the planetary gears was too high, it abandoned this route.
Another exception is Chang'an. Changan has taken the "old road" of BYD a few years ago, using an outdated single-motor parallel architecture. Due to its late start in electrification and the fact that it has not acquired patents for other hybrid systems like Geely, the use of this architecture can lower the R&D threshold and shorten the R&D cycle in order to quickly "card slot" in its hybrid market.
However, as mentioned earlier, the parallel architecture of a single motor has an innate "hard injury", that is, the high fuel consumption of the feeder. For example, the Tang DM four-wheel drive version with a similar architecture, although it has been greatly optimized compared with a few years ago, the fuel consumption of the feed is still as high as 7.5L/100km. The feeder fuel consumption of the Changan UNI-K hybrid version is only 5.0L/100km, even lower than the 5.3L/100km of Tang DM-i.
▲Changan UNI-K hybrid version chassis
In the parameters of this car, there are two data that are slightly "contradictory": the car's battery pack capacity is 30 degrees, but the pure electric endurance is only 130km, which shows that the power consumption of 100 km is 23 degrees. Although the car is positioned as a mid-size SUV, the power consumption is still too high. For comparison, the 100-kilometer power consumption of the same level of Tang DM-i, Tiggo 8 PLUS Hybrid Edition and Mocha PHEV is 19 degrees, 19 degrees and 20 degrees, respectively. If calculated according to the 20 degrees of electricity consumption per 100 kilometers, then the pure electric endurance of the Changan UNI-K hybrid version should be about 150km.
From this point of view, it is likely that the engineer deliberately "locked" a part of the power in order to ensure the fuel consumption of the feed, so as not to let the vehicle reach the real feed state and reduce the burden on the engine. That is to say, when you see that the meter shows that electricity has been fed, there is actually enough power in the battery.
According to the normal power consumption of this car, a battery pack of about 25-26 degrees can basically meet the pure electric endurance of 130km, which shows that its "hidden" power is about 4-5 degrees. That is to say, consumers buy a 30-degree battery pack, but can only get the performance of about 25 degrees of battery pack, and the rest of the power is used to maintain the fuel consumption of the feed.
According to the market price, the price of the battery cell of about 5 degrees is about a few thousand yuan. However, from the pre-price of the Changan UNI-K hybrid version, in the case of the configuration is roughly the same, the price of the hybrid version model is about 30,000 yuan more expensive than the fuel version, and this price difference is relatively close to BYD Tang, and it does not seem to cause any loss to consumers.
But if the car really works as described above, then even if it can get better test results, it will be "exposed" in daily driving. Because as long as the vehicle is not charged after multiple feeds, then the reserve power will also be drained, then you can know its true feed fuel consumption, which needs to be verified by actual measurement.
Tabulation: Do News
epilogue
There is no doubt that before the advent of the era of pure electricity, hybrid will play an extremely important role in the automotive market. With the rise of a large number of self-owned brand hybrid models, Japanese hybrids will no longer be able to monopolize this market. The former not only has a higher product strength, but also often strikes at the latter in terms of price.
With the continuous integration of electrification technology, the once indestructible technical barriers of the joint venture brand will be broken down little by little, when we will usher in a new market ecology, so the rise of hybrid is definitely the "back to the light" of the internal combustion engine, and it will emit the most dazzling light before officially withdrawing from the historical stage.
At present, BYD, Great Wall, Geely, Chery and other car companies are running in front of the hybrid technology route. Among them, BYD plays the role of "bellwether".
But this is, after all, a competition that lasts for at least 15 years, and other brands have enough time to complete the "counterattack". In addition, as the competition of new energy vehicles enters the second half, intelligent technology will affect the development of enterprises to a greater extent, which is obviously not BYD's strength, so intelligence will also become a major breakthrough for other car companies to surpass BYD.