Can Blinken's hasty visit to the west after three rounds of dialogue between the West and Russia failed to cool down tensions?

The US State Department announced on the 18th that US Secretary of State Blinken left for Ukraine, Germany and Switzerland on the same day to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, German Foreign Minister Berberk, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Officials said Blinken's trip was part of a diplomatic effort to ease tensions along the Russian-Ukrainian border. In the past week, Russia and the West have launched intensive dialogue on this issue, but have failed to make a breakthrough, and tensions have shown signs of escalation.

The analysis believes that Blinken's visit is intended to conduct diplomatic communication with Russia to prevent the situation from deteriorating further, and at the same time coordinate its position with allies and partners to cope with changes in the regional situation. However, in view of the large differences between the United States and Russia, it is difficult to reach a compromise, and it is expected that the tensions in Ukraine and the US-Russia game will continue.

See allies first, then opponents

The US State Department said that Blinken met with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and Foreign Minister Kureba in Kiev on the 19th to "strengthen the commitment of the United States to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity." Blinken will also meet with local U.S. embassy employees and their families to inform them of the U.S. side's "emergency preparedness."

After that, Blinken will go to Berlin on the 20th to meet with German Foreign Minister Berberk. The U.S. State Department said the two would discuss recent diplomatic engagement with Russia and joint actions to prevent Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine, including making Russia suffer serious consequences. In addition, Blinken will hold a "Transatlantic Quad" meeting with British, French and German officials.

Subsequently, Blinken will go to Geneva on the 21st to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. The U.S. State Department said the two sides would engage on areas of concern and urged Russia to take steps to de-escalate the situation and withdraw its troops along the Ukrainian border.

According to US media reports, Blinken and Lavrov called on the 18th and knocked on the meeting arrangement, which shows that the trip was hasty. Senior State Department officials said the two sides wanted to see if there was a chance to reach a "consensus" and that the meeting "showed that diplomacy was not dead."

U.S. State Department spokesman Price said Blinken and Lavrov spoke about recent diplomatic contacts during the call and "stressed the importance of continuing to ease tensions through diplomatic channels."

It is worth noting that Blinken's visit comes at a time when the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border continues to be tense, and Russia and the West are engaged in fierce confrontations on NATO's eastward expansion and other issues.

Recently, the West has been constantly playing up Russia's chen-soldier border and waiting for the opportunity to "invade", while the Russian side has emphasized that NATO squeezes Russia's security space. In the face of the external situation of "no retreat" and the risk of misfire on the Ukrainian issue, the Russian side previously put forward NATO's legal guarantee not to expand eastward and not to deploy offensive weapons on russia's borders.

In the past week, Russia has held dialogues with the United States and NATO on relevant topics, and with the West under the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), but no substantive results have been achieved. A major contradiction lies in the West's categorical rejection on the grounds that Russia's demands are contrary to NATO's "open" policy.

Tensions are then showing signs of escalation. The Biden administration believes that Russia's "attack" on Ukraine is becoming more and more urgent, and the action of negotiating a peaceful solution has become urgent.

In this context, Xia Liping, dean of the Institute of International and Public Affairs of Tongji University, and Feng Yujun, vice president of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University, both believe that Blinken's visit is to conduct diplomatic communication with Russia on the one hand to prevent the situation from deteriorating further; on the other hand, it also coordinates its position with allies and partners to take joint actions to cope with changes in the regional situation.

"Russia, despite the recession, has recently shown a strong side in geopolitics and foreign policy," Mr. Feng said, prompting countries to feel the need for consultations.

Recently, the United States has repeatedly reiterated its support for Ukraine. Just last week, CIA Director Burns visited Kiev to discuss a "risk assessment" with Ukrainian officials. In addition, a cross-party delegation of U.S. senators also visited Ukraine this week to emphasize Congressional support for Ukraine.

Germany is also one of the important players in the situation in Ukraine. As one of the "bellwethers" of the European Union, Germany also has important energy cooperation with Russia. Just yesterday, Berberk arrived in Moscow after his trip to Ukraine for talks with Lavrov.

The Wall Street Journal said that the Biden administration has ruled out the possibility of direct military intervention by the United States in the situation in Ukraine, and Blinken is seeking European support to impose major sanctions on Russia in the event of an "invasion" of Ukraine. Germany, which has important economic ties to Russia, plays a key role in deterring Russia.

The Blinken meeting with Lavrov will be the first high-level engagement between Russia and the United States since last week's intensive contacts. "Blinken's 150 percent commitment to finding diplomatic avenues was really the driving force behind his engagement with Lavrov." U.S. State Department officials said.

Whether it can cool the situation down

So, can Blinken's trip bear fruit? Can it "cool down" the situation in Ukraine?

Feng Yujun expects that the United States and Ukraine will actively coordinate the joint actions of the two sides in safeguarding Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as countering Russian pressure, and do not rule out that the United States will once again announce economic and security assistance to Ukraine. According to US media reports on the 19th, the Biden administration will provide an additional $200 million in defensive military assistance to Ukraine.

But the United States still faces obstacles in reconciling its position with Germany, as it is difficult for countries within Germany and even in Europe to form a unified position.

Inside Germany, "although Berberk advocated both dialogue with Russia and a strict stance on Russia, Chancellor Scholtz's Social Democratic Party sent contradictory signals that complicated her trip to Moscow." The US media "politician" wrote that this disagreement is particularly evident on the issue of the Russian-German energy pipeline Nord Stream-2. At a time when Europe is facing an energy crisis, whether to use this pipeline is more sensitive.

At the European level, Although Germany and other "old European" countries have concerns about Russia, they also cooperate with Russia and have a more rational attitude towards Russia. Some "new Europe" countries in Central and Eastern Europe generally regard Russia as a threat, take a tough attitude toward Russia, and rely more on the United States.

In addition, the Wall Street Journal quoted European officials as saying that compared with the United States, European countries have closer economic and financial ties with Moscow and will also suffer collateral damage caused by more sanctions, so there are some differences between the United States and Europe on sanctions against Russia.

"The Russian-U.S. consultations are more complicated," Feng Yujun said, adding that there is a big gap between the basic positions of the two sides, and it is difficult to resolve contradictions and improve relations through one or two dialogues.

Xia Liping pointed out that Russia has shown the "bottom card" - requiring written security assurances. But in the face of tremendous pressure from anti-Russian hawks in the United States, it is difficult for the Biden administration to make too many concessions to Russia.

CNN said it was unclear whether the United States would respond in writing to Russia's security proposals.

Given the difficulty of reaching consensus among all parties, the security situation in Ukraine and even in Europe is unlikely to improve in the short term, and may even deteriorate. "Unless one side makes a big compromise," Mr. Xia said.

However, Feng Yujun pointed out that we can see the willingness of the United States to reach a compromise with Russia. "The United States does not want Europe to regenerate the incident and affect its layout 'Indo-Pacific'. After several rounds of competition, it is not excluded that the two sides will reach a certain degree of compromise, such as not deploying offensive weapons to each other in Europe. ”

It is worth noting that around the situation in Ukraine, more dialogue is expected to appear in the future, or it will bring new variables. Yermak, director of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on the 14th that Zelenskiy proposed to hold a tripartite summit with Biden and Putin. The US side has expressed interest in this proposal and is waiting for a response from the Russian side.

In addition, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said on the 18th that he has proposed to hold a series of meetings in the NATO-Russia Council, possibly in the "near future" to address Russian and Western concerns.

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Caption Source: Xinhua News Agency Photo Editor: Yong Kai

Source: Author: Lu Yifei