Recently, a number of coal companies issued performance forecasts, in 2021, net profit to achieve substantial growth, of which, Jinkong Coal Industry is expected to grow by about 455.84%, China Coal Energy is expected to rise 99.4% to 143.6%, Xinji Energy net profit increased by 186.7%, benefiting from high coal prices, coal companies in 2021 to achieve a bumper harvest, then in 2022, whether coal prices can continue to be high, after a sharp rise and adjustment of coal enterprise stocks, whether it is still worth investing, to see "Famous Market" Analysis:
Zhang Jinming: Coal prices are short-term optimistic, limited supply is expected to remain high throughout the year
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Zhang Jinming, chief analyst of the coal industry at Guosheng Securities: Recently, coal companies have successively issued performance forecasts, and the net profit has increased exponentially, mainly because in the process of energy transformation, there is a rigid demand for coal, and the supply side, due to the constraints of the policy, superimposed on the industry's pessimistic expectations for the future, resulting in coal companies even if the profits have increased significantly, cash flow is abundant, but still significantly reduced capital expenditure on the traditional main business, resulting in limited space for output growth. Therefore, once the demand expansion encounters supply constraints, it will inevitably lead to a sharp rise in coal prices.
In the past 2021, coal prices first soared all the way, breaking through the 2600 yuan mark in one fell swoop, setting a record high, and then the policy of increasing production and supply began to exert force, falling back to about 800 yuan, in the context of a sharp rise in the coal price center, the profitability of coal companies naturally showed multiple growth.
For coal prices in 2022, the short term can be more optimistic. On the one hand, the measures to increase production and supply after the Spring Festival are expected to be withdrawn one after another, and the ceiling of coal production capacity has basically appeared; on the other hand, the strength of steady growth in the first half of this year is worth looking forward to, and after the holiday, under the pull of demand, coal prices are expected to rise. Throughout the year, the supply and demand of the coal market in 2022 is basically balanced, and the coal price center is expected to be around 800 yuan, although it has declined from the same period last year, but it is still in a historical 80% quantile.
For investment, in the context of the sharp rise in the benchmark price of the long-term association this year, the profitability of coal companies will remain high, and the shares of the corresponding companies will generally be between 4-7 times after the sharp adjustment of the shares of the corresponding companies in this round, and the margin of safety is high. However, because it is difficult for coal prices to break through last year's high point this year, it is difficult for the entire coal sector this year to repeat last year's soaring market.
So this year's opportunity lies in the transformation of coal companies and the switching of the valuation system. Under the background of double carbon, the proportion of coal in the mainland energy structure will decline year by year, transformation and development is a problem that coal companies have to face, and coal companies have a unique advantage in transformation and development with their abundant cash flow and important strategic position. These coal companies, which have taken the lead in releasing transformation plans, have both performance and imagination space, and investors should pay close attention to them.
(The above is the guest's opinion.) The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when investing! ）
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(Edited by Zhang Xiaoxuan)
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