An article to understand the world pattern of autonomous driving

--Collect the "Automotive Driving Automation Classification" (GB/T 40429-2021)--

The eve of autonomous driving

In 2021, Bill Gates published an article titled "Every Home Has a Robot," detailing the application scenarios of future robots, including bomb disposal robots, robotic arms, and driverless cars. After 14 years, when we look at this article again, you will find that many scenes in the article have been realized, among which the concept of unmanned vehicles is the most active and the most concerned by the public. Autonomous driving has never been a single technology, but a collection of many different technologies and an important branch of artificial intelligence. It can be said that whoever masters autonomous driving will grasp the initiative of the future industrial revolution. Therefore, the countries of the world are quietly accumulating strength and even starting a bloody war.

In order to let the users of the majority of families better understand the field of autonomous driving, we have opened the topic of the pioneer series. We will conduct interviews with head companies in different fields, and provide a comprehensive report on the research intention, research and development process, research and development status and future direction of these head companies, so that users can understand what kind of state the autonomous driving field is in at home and abroad. Whether we have the ability to be confident in autonomous driving technology, whether China will be controlled by others in this field, and finally let everyone know China's advantages and disadvantages in the field of automatic driving, hoping to influence more people to understand this industry.

The night before autonomous driving

Autonomous driving has entered the path of rapid development. Before unveiling the curtain on autonomous driving, it is necessary to go back to the source and fundamentally understand the historical background of the birth of autonomous driving or driverless cars.

The history of autonomous driving began in the United States. Modern information technology first began in the 1960s, an era of great social change. The clouds of World War II have just receded. Thanks to the institutional framework established by the United States in the 20th century, the government can attract experts in professional fields on a large scale in policy. As a result, the United States has accumulated abundant human resources in the fields of science and engineering.

Modern information technology is no longer a mysterious "thing", but really comes around the masses, which is also the second stage of the development of modern information technology.

With the rapid increase of the Internet population, the development of information technology has reached the fifth stage. This is also the stage that we are currently going through. At present, the Internet penetration rate has reached 60%, and the number of Chinese netizens alone is as high as 829 million. Behind the rapid growth of Internet users is the popularity of personal mobile devices, and we have gradually completed the transition from personal computers to personal mobile portable mobile devices.

People quickly embraced the changes that internet technology has made to life and economic patterns. It can be said that the fifth stage of the development of modern information technology has greatly changed our needs and access to the Internet.

The emergence of autonomous driving will open a new stage, because autonomous driving is not a single technology, but a collection of a large number of high-end technologies, so it will also bring great changes. According to official estimates, only the digital transformation of the automotive industry can generate $67 billion in value, and the social benefits can reach $3-4 trillion.

Autonomous driving will bring great changes and impacts to the entire society and the automotive industry. At present, our headaches such as traffic congestion, frequent highway accidents, parking difficulties, air pollution and other issues will be subversively improved with the advent of autonomous driving.

The evolution of autonomous driving

If the development of modern information technology has indirectly promoted the development of automatic driving, then the accumulation of policies, geographical environments and technologies in different countries has directly led to the formation of a modern automatic driving pattern.

The human imagination has always been so wild. As early as 1925, the American inventor Francis Hudina came up with the idea of self-driving cars.

However, these are ideas or immature experiments. Currently, the accepted origins of autonomous driving in the field of autonomous driving actually come from a driverless challenge called DARPA.

The conditions for completion of the race did not seem harsh, as long as they could drive 142 miles in the Mojave Desert, but in previous years, no challenger could complete the race.

At the same time, this competition has also indirectly promoted the growth of many companies. Widoden, a leader in the field of lidar, is one of them. Originally founded in 1983 as an audio equipment manufacturer, Mr. Hall is the company's CEO.

In general, driverless cars or autonomous driving were very immature in the decade after 2000, so it was very difficult to develop autonomous driving during the period 2000-2010. And, from the perspective of business and investment circles, autonomous driving seemed like a mirage at the time, and businessmen often think of unmanned cars or autonomous driving when talking about science fiction movies.

People are starting to realize that AI or go further, self-driving or driverless cars are not the product of the next 100 years, and perhaps it will come sooner than we think.

In addition to social factors, the promotion of all walks of life is also a force that cannot be ignored behind it. For example, GM will acquire Cruise in 2021 and invest $500 million in Lyft to support research and development of autonomous driving. Beyond that, in that year, Google seceded the self-driving car project and built the famous Waymo, which in a sense made 2021 the first year of autonomous driving.

The sino-US struggle for hegemony has begun to emerge

The world pattern of autonomous driving

After years of development, the pattern of the autonomous driving world is becoming clear. At present, it can be roughly divided from countries and regions, and the technical route is becoming clearer. Generally speaking, the field of autonomous driving is divided into four main battlefields in the world, namely China, the United States, Japan and Europe. It's already being manipulated behind the scenes, and it's interesting to savor.

Japan and Europe

Let's look at Japan and Europe first, where the modern auto industry is stronger. In fact, it is not appropriate to put the two together, because Europe and Japan still have differences in their approach to autonomous driving.

1) Europe: Fragmentation hinders the development of autonomous driving.

The development of autonomous driving technology in Europe is subject to many constraints, which is closely related to the geographical and political situation in Europe.

You may say that English is the lingua franca of the world, but you will find that in fact, all major European countries have their own independent languages, which also means that different ways of thinking and cultures will appear.

These have restricted the development of autonomous driving in Europe, so you will find that old suppliers in Europe may have mastered some subdivisions of autonomous driving technology. However, from the perspective of the autonomous driving industry, the development of Europe is not smooth. More importantly, of course, Europeans are far less receptive to autonomous driving than China and the United States.

Therefore, for Europe, both car companies and established suppliers will bet more on China and the United States.

2) Japan: technologically conservative, self-contained, limited market development.

If Europe's excessive fragmentation has caused resistance to the development of autonomous driving, then for Japan, the small market is an important factor restricting Japan's development.

Only a large enough market can ensure the emergence of a hundred schools of contention, and only a hundred schools of contention, more competitors, can ensure that there are excellent enterprises to stand out from it, and ultimately make the automatic driving industry more mature.

Of course, Japan also has advantages in the field of autonomous driving. First, on the policy front, we know that population ageing is a problem that many countries, especially Japan, are facing. According to Japan's Sankei Shimbun, by 2060, Japan's population aged 65 and over will account for 40% of Japan's total population, and one-third of these aging population will face travel problems, and the widespread application of autonomous driving will solve the travel problems of this group.

Currently, the Japanese parliament is considering amendments to the Road Traffic Law to allow L3 self-driving cars to drive on the road. Under the premise of changing to manual driving in an emergency, drivers are allowed to play with mobile phones and other "single-minded driving". In addition, the Japanese government has also said that it will achieve autonomous driving on all highways by 2025 and allow truck companies to build autonomous cargo fleets.

In addition to policy support, Japanese companies are also increasing investment in autonomous driving and promoting the formation of alliances. Among them, Japanese car companies and suppliers, led by Toyota, have accelerated investment and acquisition of autonomous driving start-ups, while continuously accelerating the deployment and research and development of the Internet of Vehicles and autonomous driving platforms in terms of technology.

China and the United States

1) The United States: It is not only the starting point of autonomous driving, but also the country with the most abundant technology accumulation and capital.

Compared with the "low profile" of Europe and Japan in the field of autonomous driving, China and the United States are definitely remarkable in the field of autonomous driving.

Let's start with America. Autonomous driving originated in the United States, so the United States has a rich accumulation of talents, so talent is the first advantage of the United States in the field of automatic driving. In fact, the essence of each stage of development of modern information technology is also the process of technological iteration in the United States, which makes the United States have enough authority and discourse power in the field of automatic driving.

In addition, Google's strength lies not only in its early research, but also in its comprehensiveness. We know that autonomous driving is a collection of a lot of technologies, and for Google, it has a lot of divisions, a lot of black technology.

If "all roads lead to Rome", then being born in Rome naturally has great advantages. Combining these factors, it is logical that Google will be able to gain an advantage in autonomous driving.

If there is no accident, the United States will always maintain a high development speed and leading level in the field of autonomous driving, but the epidemic has indeed affected the exploration of the US autonomous driving industry and related businesses. AutoX founder Dr. Xiao gave his thoughts on the impact of the pandemic on the United States. First of all, in terms of automatic driving, the current autonomous driving test vehicle needs to verify the algorithm through a large number of road tests, and enough data can ensure the improvement of the algorithm. But the U.S. control of the epidemic is really poor, resulting in a large number of people having to stay at home continuously, stopping work and production, and also leading to few pedestrians in the city and very empty roads. Such road conditions are of little value for testing autonomous driving, and this is also true. Dr. Xiao Xiongjian believes that this situation will not end at least until the end of the epidemic, and the end of the epidemic is a good time for relatively backward countries to catch up.

On the other hand, as a country on wheels, the traditional U.S. auto market is huge and the number of cars per capita is also very high. Under the epidemic, Americans are more inclined to buy cars, and shared cars, which were once very popular in the United States, have begun to be left out in the cold. This sentiment is not good news for the taxi industry. For autonomous driving, driverless taxis are actually projects that are currently recognized as commercializable, but the psychological fear brought about by the epidemic will also have an impact on the promotion of driverless taxis, resulting in a shrinking market for driverless taxis and making investors more cautious.

In general, the technology accumulation of autonomous driving in the United States is very strong, and the talent training system is mature, with a strong first-mover advantage and a large market. But the pandemic has slowed the development of autonomous driving in the United States, leaving a certain empty window. At the same time, market volatility has also affected investment in the autonomous driving market.

2) China: Rising Star

In the field of autonomous driving, China's R&D history is obviously very different from that of the United States. However, from a development perspective, China and the United States are very similar.

Compared with the United States, China's self-driving research started late, but still has its own advantages. The first is talent. There are a large number of Chinese students in the top universities in the United States, and they have received the best education in the United States, especially in the field of autonomous driving, which is the direction that many Chinese students choose, so China has a good advantage in terms of talent pool.

The second is the advantage of funds. Compared with the US market, the domestic market also has enough funds to support long-term and long-term investment projects such as autonomous driving. Third, there is a lack of competition in the internal environment. The United States does have a series of high-end players such as Google, but the competition is bound to be more intense. At present, there are not many really powerful autonomous driving companies in China. After all, everyone started late. Although 2015 to 2021 can open a certain gap, the overall gap is not very obvious, and there will be no giants like Google. This provides a good environment for more start-up self-driving companies to develop, and is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for entrepreneurs.

The fourth Chinese self-driving company is catching up wildly. Domestic technology companies are really competitive in the field of autonomous driving, whether it is technology or road test mileage, they are firmly behind the United States. For example, the road test mentioned above, we mentioned before, Google began to study autonomous driving very early, so they have accumulated a large amount of road test data, and by 2021, the total mileage of waymo road test will exceed 20 million kilometers.

Although the gap between domestic companies is very large, it is very tight. In terms of road test mileage, Waymo is followed by domestic companies Baidu and Wenyuan Zhixing, of which Baidu has the largest number. By 2021, the road test mileage will reach 2 million kilometers, an increase of 14 times over 2021.

In terms of technology, performance has also improved by leaps and bounds. The California Vehicle Authority's annual autonomous vehicle takeover report is seen as one of the weather vanes. The report documents annual information submitted by automakers, tech companies and startups testing self-driving cars in California. At the same time, it reflects the miles traveled by these companies in the current year and the number of cars taken over by human drivers, thus calculating the mileage of the car at the time of each human intervention. This indicator directly reflects the reliability and autonomous driving capabilities of autonomous driving technology.

The 2021 report shows that among the 48 companies that submitted reports, Google's Waymo and General Motors' Cruise held an absolute lead in mileage before taking over. But by 2021, four of the top ten companies were from China, with Baidu coming in first place and Wamio, the previous year's champion, relegating to second place this time. AutoX and Ma Xiaozhixing entered the top five, and Didi entered the top ten. This means that Chinese companies have launched a real contest with the top US technology companies, and the contest between them is bound to be a contest between Chinese autonomous driving technology and American autonomous driving technology.

At the same time, in terms of hardware, China's complete supplier system is also a necessary condition to ensure the development of autonomous driving in China. Lidar, for example, is very important in autonomous driving.

Although these Chinese lidar companies started late, they have made rapid progress, relying on China's complete supply chain system to bring more competitive prices. At present, many of the top autonomous driving companies in the United States have also begun to cooperate with Chinese lidar suppliers. Baidu, which invested in China's Weideng, even replaced all the lidar used by its Robotaxi with Hesai's products, which shows that Chinese products are fully capable of PK with foreign top lidar.

The current world autonomous driving pattern is such a status quo. Judging from the current pattern, although Japan and Europe have certain technical reserves, the market and geographical environment have limited their development, and even the road test has been slowed down. The United States is still strong, but the epidemic has left the development of the United States full of unknowns. In contrast, the epidemic situation on the mainland is stable, and the resumption of work and production has been comprehensively promoted. In the field of autonomous driving, the gap between us and the United States is getting closer and closer. If we can achieve overtaking in the field of autonomous driving, then the Chinese market will have a bright future.

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