"Car junkie" Gates endorsed self-driving and said the next decade will reach a tipping point

Focus:

• 1 Autonomous driving technology is approaching the tipping point between the second and third levels, and is close to halfway to the future of fully autonomous vehicles in all conditions.
• Over time, self-driving cars will become cheaper and improve accessibility for the elderly and disabled.
• 3 Gates predicts that long-distance trucking may be the first area to adopt self-driving technology, and passenger cars are the last.

Tencent Technology News April 1 news, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates (Bill Gates) called himself a "car fan", but after recently personally test-driving autonomous vehicles (AV), he said that we are now close to half of the future of fully autonomous vehicles in all conditions, he is ready to hand over control to machines, and predicted that this day "sooner rather than later."

"The car was driving us in central London and it was one of the most challenging driving environments imaginable. It's kind of surreal to sit in the car when it's dodging all the vehicles," Gates wrote in a blog post with a video posted this week. It's not hard to see from the blog post that Gates is optimistic about the future of autonomous vehicles.

The car Gates was riding in was made by Wayve, a British startup. The company has partnered with Microsoft to develop self-driving technology. In Gates' "test drive," Gates was accompanied by Wayve CEO and co-founder Alex Kendall, who serves as a safety driver.

In recent years, several automakers, including General Motors, and tech giants such as Google's parent company Alphabet have been working to develop self-driving cars. GM's Cruise even operates its own driverless ride-hailing service in San Francisco and recently asked the California government to allow it to test self-driving cars statewide. Tesla electric vehicles have long offered drivers the option to use its "Autopilot" feature, which helps drivers steer or brake, but does not yet support full self-driving.

"We've made tremendous progress in autonomous vehicles in recent years, and I believe we'll reach a tipping point within the next decade," Gates wrote. "If you drive to and from work like I do, think about how much time you're wasting on driving. Instead, you can catch up on an email, or read a good book, or watch your favorite TV series — all of which are possible in a fully autonomous car. ”

If self-driving car technology is successfully rolled out in the future, the billionaire also has high hopes for what the technology will mean in reducing social inequality. Gates believes that over time, self-driving cars will become cheaper and improve accessibility for the elderly and disabled. Since most of the self-driving cars being developed are also electric, he said electric vehicles could also help combat the climate crisis.

However, Gates also acknowledged in the blog post that self-driving cars still have a long way to go — maybe decades — before they become mainstream. But he believes that even after that, passenger cars will remain the last category to take the autonomous vehicle route. Gates predicts that trucks will be the first category.

A future full of self-driving cars means that all the infrastructure that supports them will no longer be necessary. But Gates said the shift could take "decades" to happen.

In recent years, as more and more self-driving cars have been deployed on the streets, other questions surrounding this new technology have popped up. Earlier this year, Tesla's electric vehicles equipped with experimental "Fully Self-Driving" software were recalled because they are prone to crashing. Tesla's Autopilot and Fully Self-Driving are under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for past crashes. There are also concerns that self-driving car companies no longer require safety drivers to help guide cars through tricky situations on the streets, and that these problems in some cases lead to chaos.

"Even if the technology is perfected, people may not be comfortable with a car without a steering wheel at first. But I believe the benefits will convince them," Gates wrote in a blog post.

Gates has always been a big believer in AI and its associated future technologies, and recently announced that "the era of AI has arrived." He said he thinks OpenAI's much-publicized chatbot tool, ChatGPT, released last year as revolutionary and has the potential to have a profound impact on healthcare and education. The entire industry will reposition around it. Businesses will use it to distinguish between good and bad," Gates wrote in a blog post earlier this month.

The following is the full text of the Gates blog post:

"The Rules of the Road Are About to Change" – I believe we will reach the tipping point for autonomous vehicles within the next decade.

I've always been a car fan. When I was younger, I liked to drive fast (sometimes too fast). Now, I'm looking forward to going to work every day. Driving is both fun and thought-provoking.

Still, I'm excited to one day give control of the car to the machine.

Sooner or later, that day will come. We've made tremendous progress in autonomous vehicles in recent years, and I believe we'll reach an inflection point in the next decade. By then, self-driving cars will dramatically change transportation in the same way that personal computers have transformed office work. Much of this development is due to broader advances in the field of artificial intelligence. (I recently shared my thoughts on AI on my blog.) )

The following background knowledge is for those who may not know much about self-driving cars: The best way to understand where we are right now is to look at the classification system of the Society of American Engineers (SAE). This is widely used to describe how autonomous a vehicle is.

At levels 0-2, the human driver has full control of the car, but the vehicle can provide assisted driving through cruise control and lane centering functions. The third level is when technology begins to shift from driver control to vehicle control. When you reach the highest level, the car can be fully autonomous at any time and in any condition – future Level 5 vehicles may not have a steering wheel at all.

Today, we are approaching the tipping point between the second and third levels, where the car becomes able to let the driver take his hands off the wheel and let the system drive in certain situations. The first Level III car was recently approved for use in the United States, but only under very special conditions: Self-driving is allowed if you're driving below 40 mph (64 km/h) on a Nevada highway on a sunny day.

Over the next decade, we'll start to see more vehicles crossing that threshold. Self-driving cars are rapidly evolving, and almost all of the required technologies have been invented. Now, the focus is on improving algorithms and perfecting engineering. Huge advances have been made in recent years – especially when it comes to sensors. Sensors scan the surroundings and tell the vehicle what it needs to react to, such as a pedestrian crossing the street or another driver suddenly swerving into your lane.

There are many different ways to develop self-driving cars. Many automakers — such as General Motors, Honda, and Tesla — are developing models that look like regular cars but have autonomous features. Still others are focused entirely on self-driving technology, and some of their products are pushing the boundaries of vehicles – like perfectly symmetrical robo-taxis or public transport pods. Many other companies are developing components that can be installed to give existing vehicles autonomous driving capabilities.

I recently had the pleasure of test-driving – I think – a fairly novel car made by British company Wayve. While many self-driving cars can only navigate streets that are already loaded into their systems, Wayve vehicles operate more like a person. It can drive anywhere humans can.

When you drive, you rely on the knowledge you have accumulated from driving. That's why you know what to do before a stop sign, even if you've never seen that particular sign on a particular road before. Wayve uses deep learning techniques to do the same. Algorithms learn by example. It applies experience gained from a large number of real-world driving and simulations to interpret the surroundings and react in real time.

The result was an unforgettable experience. The car drove us through central London, one of the most challenging driving environments imaginable, and sitting in the car dodging all the vehicles was a bit surreal. (Since the car was still in development, we had a safety driver in the car just in case, and she took control several times.) )

It's unclear which approach will be the most successful, as we're only just beginning to reach the threshold where cars can truly drive themselves. But once we're there, what will the transition to self-driving cars actually look like?

First, passenger cars may be the last widely adopted type of car. Long-distance trucking is probably the first area, followed by express delivery. When you finally walk into a self-driving car, it's likely to be a taxi or a rented car. (Car rental companies lose a lot of money each year to driver-induced accidents, so they're eager to transition to a fleet of autonomous vehicles with a lower accident rate — at least in theory.) )

As self-driving cars become more common, we will have to rethink many of the driving-enabled systems we've created. Car insurance is a good example. Who is responsible when a self-driving car is involved in an accident, the person in the car or the company that writes the software? The government will have to enact new laws and regulations. The path may even have to change. Many highways have high-occupancy lanes to encourage ride-sharing – will we one day have "self-driving car only" lanes? Will self-driving cars eventually become so popular that if you want to drive, you have to use a "human driver-only" lane?

If this shift does happen, it could be decades away. Even if the technology is perfected, people may not feel comfortable with a car without a steering wheel at first. But I believe the benefits will convince them. Self-driving cars will eventually be cheaper than regular vehicles. If you're driving to and from work like I do, think about how much time you're wasting on driving. Instead, you can catch up on an email, or read a good book, or watch your favorite TV series — all of which are possible in a fully autonomous car. What's more, self-driving cars will also provide more transportation options for the elderly and disabled, creating more equity for them. They will even help us avoid climate catastrophe, as most of the ones being developed are also electric vehicles.

Humans have previously adapted to new modes of transportation. I'm sure we'll do it again. For most of our existence, we relied on natural ways to travel: we walked, or rode horses, or traveled by boat. In the 18th century, we entered the mobile era powered by steam engines and internal combustion engines. Today, we find ourselves in the early days of autonomous driving. It's an exciting time and I can't wait to see what new possibilities it opens. (Mowgli)