Introduction: Although the first week of 2022 is unfavorable, it is fortunate that there is a ray of light in the second week.
【Key Points】
· The parts sector saw the largest average increase of 2.44% and an increase in market value of about 13.6 billion yuan;
· The new energy & intelligent sector rose by an average of 2.34%, and the market value increased by about 140 billion yuan;
· The passenger car and dealer sectors rose by 0.84% and 0.34% respectively, and the total market value increased by nearly 200 billion yuan;
· The commercial vehicle segment was the weakest performer, with shares down 1.91% and a market value loss of 2.3 billion yuan.
In the stock market candlestick chart, the dawn of dawn, is a classic bottoming reversal pattern in the K-line combination pattern, composed of two K-lines with a yin and a yang trend that are completely opposite, generally appearing in the downtrend, which means that the market situation has turned from light to good; if there is a continuous "dawning" K-line combination, it means that the stock may rise.
Recently, for the auto sector, aside from the last week of 2021, the market value increased slightly by 160 billion yuan, and the overall market value scale has shrunk for five consecutive weeks, especially in the first week of 2022, the stock price fell by 3%, and the market value shrank by more than 600 billion yuan, which was unfavorable; however, from the data of the second week of 2022, the situation may reverse.
This week, the performance of the 69 auto-related listed companies registered in the automotive K-line statistics picked up, the stock price rose by an average of 0.9%, and the market value increased by 350.67 billion yuan, of which more than 50% of the stocks rose.
In the broader market, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index continued to close down 1.63% and 1.35%, and the Hang Seng Index extended its gains to 3.79% from 0.41% in the previous week, with the Hong Kong stock market performing stronger.
From the overall list, Fuyao Glass from the parts sector led the way with a 14.9% increase, Enjie Shares, Desay SV, and NavInfo new three new energy & intelligent stocks entered the top five, while the passenger car sector only Guangzhou Automobile Group ranked third with an increase of 11.88%.
In terms of decline, *ST Zotye was at the bottom, down 18.59% in one week; Xiaokang shares and Yaxing Bus fell by more than 14%, and the rest of the stocks fell within 10%. Overall, Week 2 of 2022 has finally picked up, but not much.
Below, the automotive candlestick divides the stocks on the record into five major sectors and analyzes them one by one.
01 Passenger cars: Evergrande & Zotye "fell off the list", ANDC led the rise
In the second week of 2022, the stock prices of 18 listed companies in the (passenger car) vehicle sector rose by an average of 0.84%, and the market value increased by about 190 billion yuan. Among them, 13 stocks rose, 9 stocks fell, and Brilliance China suspended trading.
Specifically, GAC Group's H shares led by an increase of 11.88%, as of the 14th close at HK$8.38 / share, mainly due to the disclosure of profit forecasts on the 12th and a sharp increase of 9%, while GAC Group A shares rose 4.6% on the same day.
GAC Group expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 6.6 billion to 7.6 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 11%-27% year-on-year; and a non-net profit of 5.6 billion to 6.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 16% to 39% year-on-year.
For this performance forecast, many institutions, including UBS, Minsheng Securities and Soochow Securities, gave a "buy" rating.
In 2021, GAC Motor Group sold 2.144 million vehicles, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year; for 2022, the group said it would strive to increase production and sales by 15% year-on-year. In addition to the clichéd "two fields", the autonomous sector of GAC Group, although still small, is worthy of attention.
Last week, Xiaopeng Automobile's U.S. stocks ranked second with a rise of 10.3%, closing at $49.69 per share as of the 14th, with a market value increase of about 25 billion yuan; H shares also achieved a 2.9% increase.
He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, recently said that it is expected that in 2024, 2025 and 2026, the entire intelligent car field will enter the "Warring States period" from the "Spring and Autumn Period", from the qualifiers to the elimination rounds; and to temper themselves on new means of transportation.
In 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile overpowered Weilai Automobile, won the annual new force sales championship, and has already emerged in the field of flying cars.
The relatively focused ideal car, H shares and US stocks also rose by 9.36% and 6.68% last week, closing at HK$122.7 / share and $31.13 / share respectively as of the 14th, with a total market value of about 30 billion yuan.
On the news side, CITIC recently released a research report saying that it is expected that Xiaopeng Automobile-W (HK:09868) and Ideal Automobile-W (02015) will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in February and March this year. Macquarie awarded ideal cars H-shares a "outperform the market" rating with a target price of HK$151, while the institution also awarded Xiaopeng Motors H-shares a "outperform the market" rating with a target price of HK$221.
NIO also achieved a 5.63% increase last week and officially announced that it will establish a strategic partnership with Baosteel Group in areas such as products and supply chains.
In terms of declines, Evergrande Automobile, which dominated the list for three consecutive weeks, fell 3.06% last week, and ST Zotye "fell to the end" and fell three times a week. As of the close of trading on the 14th, *ST Zotye reported 5.65 yuan / share. Compared with the highest point of 9.94 yuan in the past year, it has fallen by 40%, and no important news has been disclosed in recent days.
Looking at Xiaokang shares, the weekly decline reached 14.21%, as of the 14th close of 45.09 yuan / share, the market value loss of 10 billion yuan.
On January 14, Xiaokang said that the "21 Kang 04EB" issued by the controlling shareholder Xiaokang Holdings will enter the share swap period on January 20; during the share swap period, the number of shares held by Xiaokang Holdings may be reduced due to the bondholders choosing to exchange shares, which some netizens question is a disguised reduction.
In 2021, with the huawei concept, second- and third-tier automobile companies such as Xiaokang Shares and Beiqi Blue Valley will be extremely popular in the capital market, and their stock prices and market value will rise.
However, this boom did not last, and now Xiaokang shares have fallen to 45.09 yuan, compared with the highest point of 83.83 yuan in the past year, which is almost waist-cutting. In essence, Huawei-led Q&A M5 can make Xiaokang shares take off again?
Overall, in the passenger car sector, except for the large increase in the performance forecast of THE GAC Group, the rest still lacks growth momentum.
02 Dealers: Autohome continues to lead the rally
In the second week of 2022, the stock price of the auto dealer group segment rose by an average of 0.34%, and the market value increased by about 6 billion yuan, of which 7 stocks rose and 4 stocks fell.
Specifically, Autohome continued to lead the rise, of which U.S. stocks rose 7.75%, H shares rose 3.29%, and the total market value increased by about 3 billion yuan. Yongda Auto rose 2.78% and rebounded after refreshing a 52-week low of HK$8.72 per share on January 10, and is currently mainly engaged in share buybacks. The rest of the "red" dealer groups have risen within 2%.
In terms of declines, Zhengtong Automobile fell by 7.79% and fell significantly; Guanghui Baoxin fell by 4.41%, and refreshed the 52-week low of HK$0.62/share in the 14th intraday; while the huge group and Guanghui Automobile fell by 1.83% and 1.09% respectively.
On the news side, Guanghui Group, the controlling shareholder of Guanghui Automobile, pledged 115 million shares of the company on the 10th, accounting for 1.42% of the total share capital of the company, in order to supplement the working capital; the cumulative pledged shares accounted for 14.08% of the total share capital.
At the industry level, according to the data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in December 2021 was 1.43, down 20.6% year-on-year and 5.9% month-on-month, still under the warning line.
Throughout 2021, dealer inventories have been in a state of structural shortage until the third quarter, when dealer inventories rebound as chip problems gradually ease. The association believes that the darkest hour of the car's lack of cores has passed, and it is expected that in the first half of 2022, dealer inventory levels will continue to rise.
03 New energy & intelligence: "Ningwang" pulled the market value of the plate up more than 140 billion
In the second week of 2022, the 20 individual stocks involved in the 19 new energy-related listed companies fell as a whole. Among them, 11 companies whose stock prices increased and 9 who declined, the average stock price increased by 2.34% in one week, and the cumulative market value increased by 143.038 billion yuan. This may be due to the good performance forecast for 2021.
Specifically, Enjie led the sector with a weekly increase of 13.9%, while ranking second in the overall list of gains; as of the close of trading on January 14, the stock was reported at 257.3 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value increased by 28.021 billion yuan to 229.616 billion yuan in a week.
On January 10, Enjie co., Ltd. released a performance forecast showing that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 was 2.66 billion yuan - 2.76 billion yuan, an increase of 138.44% - 147.4% year-on-year; after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 2.557 billion yuan - 2.657 billion yuan, an increase of 158.15% - 168.25% year-on-year; the basic earnings per share was 2.98 yuan / share - 3.09 yuan / share.
The announcement shows that the reason for the company's performance change is that the company benefited from the continuous improvement of the company's wet lithium battery separator film production capacity during the reporting period, and the company seized the industry development opportunities of the lithium battery isolation film business, continued to open up the domestic and foreign markets, the output and sales volume of the wet lithium battery isolation film continued to grow steadily, and the superimposed company further strengthened internal management, effectively improved the efficiency of operation and management, reduced costs and increased efficiency, and the company's overall profit level was significantly improved.
Or affected by this, the company's stock price has risen for 5 consecutive trading days.
On the evening of January 14, Enjie Co., Ltd. issued an announcement that Shanghai Enjie, a holding subsidiary of the company, signed a contract with a large overseas car company, agreeing that from January 1, 2022, Shanghai Enjie and its subsidiaries would supply lithium battery isolation film products to the cooperative customers and their authorized parties.
From 2022 to 2024, Shanghai Enjie and its subsidiaries will guarantee to the cooperative customers that the supply quantity will not exceed 1.65 billion square meters, and from 2025, Shanghai Enjie and its subsidiaries will guarantee to the cooperative customers that the supply quantity will not exceed 900 million square meters per year.
Desay SV and NavInfo ranked second and third in the sector with weekly gains of 11.67% and 11.51% respectively; at the same time ranked fourth and fifth respectively; as of the close of trading on January 14, the former was quoted at 149.02 yuan / share, with a cumulative market value increase of 8.646 billion yuan to 82.747 billion yuan; the latter was quoted at 16.66 yuan / share, with a cumulative increase in market value of 4.084 billion to 39.56 billion yuan.
On January 10, Desay SV released a performance forecast that it expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 to be 800 million yuan - 850 million yuan, an increase of 54.4% - 64.05% year-on-year; the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is 785 million yuan - 835 million yuan, an increase of 69.88% - 80.7% year-on-year; and the basic earnings per share is 1.45 yuan / share - 1.55 yuan / share.
NavInfo received a total of 53.6798 million yuan in VAT refunds and other government subsidies for independently developed software products; in addition, Zhan Weibiao, a director of the company, applied to resign as a director of the company for personal reasons.
In terms of declines, iFLYTEK led the sector with a weekly decline of 5.8%, and as of the close of trading on January 14, it was 46.81 yuan / share, and its weekly market value shrank by 6.695 billion yuan to 108.823 billion yuan.
The rest of the stocks, except for Yihuatong-U, fell within 3%. Yihuatong-U ranked second in the sector with a weekly decline of 3.24%.
Overall, the performance of the new energy & intelligent sector last week picked up compared with previous weeks, especially driven by the weighted stock Ningde era, the market value of the sector rose by more than 140 billion yuan.
04 Parts: Fuyao Glass H shares led the rise, and the overall performance of the sector was good
The 10 individual stocks involved in the 9 listed parts companies were mainly up in the second week of 2022. Among them, the stock prices of 6 stocks rose, and the remaining 4 stocks declined to varying degrees, with an average stock price growth of 2.44% in one week and a cumulative increase in market value of 13.56 billion yuan.
Specifically, Fuyao Glass H shares led the sector and the total list with a weekly increase of 14.9%, closing at HK$45.1 per share as of the close of trading on January 14, with a cumulative market value increase of HK$15.267 billion to HK$117.699 billion in a week. Its A-shares ranked fourth in the sector with a weekly gain of 2.26%.
Ningbo Huaxiang and Jingforging Technology ranked second and third in the sector with weekly gains of 9.36% and 4.82% respectively; as of the close of trading on January 14, the former was quoted at 22.9 yuan / share, with a cumulative increase in market value of 1.228 billion to 14.341 billion yuan; the latter was quoted at 15.45 yuan / share, and the market value increased to 7.443 billion yuan.
In terms of declines, Linglong Tire once again led the sector with a weekly decline of 3.43%, closing at 32.33 yuan / share as of January 14, and the weekly market value shrank by 1.578 billion to 44.361 billion yuan.
On the evening of January 12, Linglong Tire announced that 5.9324 million restricted shares will be lifted on January 19, 2022. In addition, Sanhua Intelligent Holdings and Dongan Power ranked second and third in the sector with weekly declines of 3.21% and 2.14% respectively.
Overall, the overall performance of the parts sector turned better last week.
05 Commercial vehicles: mainly falling, the overall stock price and market value have shrunk
Last week, the 13 stocks in the commercial vehicle sector as a whole were mainly down, only 4 stocks rose in stocks, 9 stocks fell, the average stock price fell by 1.91% in a week, and the cumulative market value of the week shrank by 2.33 billion yuan.
Specifically, Jiangling Motors led the sector with a weekly increase of 5.44%, as of the close of trading on January 14, closing at 17.07 yuan / share, and the market value increased to 14.735 billion yuan.
In addition, Hanma Technology rose by 1.29%, and the rest of the stocks that achieved growth did not rise by more than 1%.
In terms of decline, Yaxing Bus led the sector with a weekly decline of 14.1%, and ranked third in the overall list, as of the close of January 14, it closed at 8.65 yuan / share, and the market value shrank to 1.903 billion yuan.
In addition, Sinotruk A-shares and Zhongtong Bus ranked second and third in the sector with weekly declines of 6.91% and 4.91% respectively. The remaining 6 individual stocks fell within 2%.
Overall, commercial vehicles performed the worst of the five sectors, and were the only sectors in the five sectors to achieve negative growth in stock prices and market capitalization.
Views of Autoskline：
Although the performance of Chinese auto stocks in the first week of 2022 is not friendly, but fortunately only temporarily, in the second week of this year, the overall performance of Chinese auto stocks turned from falling to rising, and the cumulative market value of one week rose by more than 350 billion yuan, changing the performance of the previous overall plunge. According to industry experts, China's passenger car sales may increase by 5% in 2022, and it is still good.