author
Barosaurus
The price change of 5,000 to 20,000 yuan is just a touchstone of strength and weakness.
Responsible editor 丨 Shi Jie
Edit 丨 Chic
"We really can't do it, the manufacturer has set the price like this, and what can be done is to increase the price a little later than others."
Almost all of them have the same meaning, which is helplessly expressed to us from the mouths of the heads of several new energy brand stores. Similar scenes, shanghai is so, beijing, Hangzhou is also the same.
On the one hand, 2021 has become the "first year of the new energy vehicle explosion", and the industry's sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 are generally expected to be as high as 5-6 million, on the other hand, the front-line car company employees and channel sales personnel are worried.
Subsidies are declining, raw material prices are rising, chip supply is in short supply, and potential usage costs such as premiums and mileage taxes are rising... Under the attack of many factors, new energy vehicles that have not yet reached the stage of stable profitability have been forced to start passing on pressure to users.
From new Chinese and foreign forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and Tesla, to pure electric vehicles under traditional car companies such as Volkswagen and Chery, terminal prices have generally risen by thousands to tens of thousands of yuan in the near future. There are also brands that choose "insuring", but how long can it hold on is still a question mark.
How much has each brand increased its price? The C dimension first lists the clear data, and then we can understand whether "the tide recedes, and we know who is swimming naked" whether it is really differentiated or an indiscriminate blow to the industry.
01
Four pressures, four price increases
If you're an automaker or an industry watcher, you'll focus on "how much impact the price increases of new energy vehicles will have on our EV business or the market as a whole," and if you're a potential buyer of electric vehicles, you'll be the first to care about how much each one has risen.
C Dimension sorted out a table by referring to the official website to publish prices, platform price data, soochow securities / Tianfeng New and other brokerage analysis, as well as its own offline store survey.
▲Analysis of the price increase of new energy models in 2022
In terms of price increases, as low as Nezha V increased by 2,000 yuan, as high as Tesla Model Y price increased by 21,000 yuan. To sum up, there are four price increase models.
The first is to transfer only the amount of subsidy decline into the price, after all, subsidy decline is the most obvious driving factor for price increases. Most electric vehicle price increases are close to the amount of subsidies, and the FAW-Volkswagen ID. series and Xiaopeng are basically completely copied.
The second is to take into account other factors such as the rise in raw material costs, the price increase is higher than the subsidy shrinkage amount, the most typical is Tesla, model Y's rear-wheel drive model even higher than the previous price of 21,000 yuan, from 280,752 yuan to 301,840 yuan, across the threshold of 300,000 yuan. Surprisingly, the zero-run T03, which takes the low price as the selling point, is actually more than the subsidy decline, which shows the great pressure of upstream costs.
The third is that major optional configurations are also subject to price adjustments. In the price adjustment plan announced on the official website of Extreme Kr, the 001 YOU version was directly increased from 360,000 yuan to 368,000 yuan, and the optional price of the 001 WE version for the high-performance air suspension system package was also increased from 20,000 yuan to 28,000 yuan.
The fourth can almost be regarded as a "disguised fine-tuning close to no price increase", for example, the ideal car has not announced a price increase so far, but from February 1, 2022, the lifetime warranty of Sanden has been changed to 8 years / 120,000 kilometers.
There are also WM, Great Wall, Shangtong Wuling and other car company stores said that they have not yet adjusted the price, while SAIC Volkswagen announced that the company will subsidize the difference of 5,400 yuan for consumers.
Overall, the stronger, sought-after and higher-priced brands and models, the more likely they are to have higher price increases, and of course there are exceptions.
There are also four driving factors for price increases: state subsidies continue to decline this year; the price of a variety of raw materials, including lithium; the shortage of chip supply will be maintained until about 2023; and the rise in potential use costs such as premiums and mileage taxes has not yet played a significant role, but it may be "worse" in the future.
The first to bear the brunt of this is naturally the national replenishment of the slope. According to the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions in April 2020, in principle, new energy subsidies will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively from 2020 to 2022 on the basis of the previous year. Therefore, the 2022 subsidy policy notice of the four ministries and commissions not long ago is just a boot landing, this year's subsidy standard is 30% lower than last year, and the licensed vehicles after the end of the year will no longer be subsidized.
According to the Notice, starting from January 1, 2022, new energy passenger cars in the non-public sector, pure electric passenger cars with a driving range of ≥400km will be subsidized by 12,600 yuan, a decrease of 5,400 yuan over last year; models with a ≥ of 300km and < 400km will be subsidized by 9,100 yuan, a decrease of 3,900 yuan; and plug-and-mixed models with a range of ≥50km (NEDC) or 43km (WLTC) will be subsidized by 4,760 yuan, a decrease of 2,040 yuan. The subsidy for new energy vehicles in the public sector has fallen by 20%.
Secondly, the rising cost of raw materials represented by lithium carbonate required for batteries is also the "pusher" for the price increase of new energy vehicles. Why is Tesla's price increase perhaps reaching 21,000 yuan? The explanation given by the official website, in addition to subsidies, is the cost of raw materials. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has soared from the average price of 50,000 yuan / ton in early 2021 to the recent 290,000 yuan / ton, nearly 5 times. The battery pack occupies 30 to 40% of the cost of pure electric vehicles, and the cost pressure can be imagined. In addition to lithium, the price of raw materials such as coke and iron ore is also on the rise, and it is only a matter of time before it is transmitted to the consumer terminal.
As for the lack of cores, although the current phenomenon of "chip prices soaring" has been curbed, the insufficient operating rate of car companies and the imbalance between supply and demand will also be the inducement for price increases.
02
Can electric vehicles still be hit?
If the discussion of whether the price increase affects the prospects of electric vehicles is spread out and observed, the views of the two sides are fiercely exchanged.
▲Sales ranking of new energy vehicles in 2021
Macro analysts tend to look at the megatrend optimistically. For example, Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that nowadays, consumers are mostly selecting cars according to demand, and subsidies are no longer the focus; even if subsidies decline, enterprises should not increase the price of consumer terminals, unless the product has changed, providing consumers with higher value. Zhang Jianye, president of Mijia Group, pointed out that due to the unchanged trend of automobile electrification, car companies will also have corresponding measures to deal with it, and the new energy market is still promising.
The views of the terminal staff were mixed. Some insist that the flow of passengers has not changed much, and if it were not for the epidemic, the popularity would have been higher. There is also some feedback that the number of orders and passenger flow in stores has declined.
Tesla and Chery are used as representatives of new forces and traditional car companies respectively. In a second-tier city, Tesla store orders and passenger flow fell by 10% to 20%, but the Shanghai store data did not change much. Chery Ant's order volume and passenger flow in a third-tier city fell by as much as 25% to 30%. This reflects that the impact of different competitiveness, different regions, and changes in the price of electric vehicles is also different.
There are also differences in the views of potential car buyers, most of whom say that the price fluctuation of 0.5 to 20,000 yuan is not as good as the anxiety of endurance and energy replenishment, but some people believe that this part of the price may become the "last straw that crushes the camel", especially for low-cost electric vehicles that focus on cost performance.
Macro and micro, long-term and short-term, are different dimensions of observation, and it is possible to draw different conclusions. But "today is as important as tomorrow", the confidence and optimism of the strategic controller, and the pressure of the terminal personnel are all organic components of the entire ecology. Therefore, prudent optimism should always be the tone of the entire industry.
Automakers need to switch their consciousness, abandon the "psychology of crutches", and gradually move towards completely getting rid of their dependence on subsidies. Consumers are also becoming more familiar with the "new species" of smart electric vehicles, and their confidence in local electric vehicles will become more and more firm.
As for if there are new energy vehicle companies that cannot survive under the influence of cost factors, these weak people fade out of the stage and can make room for the remaining strong ones.
The challenges facing the new energy business of China's autonomous car companies have never been unique to the graben. Looking back at the development history of Tesla, it has also experienced the stage of copying Lotus chassis, battery fire and automatic driving caused a car accident, which cannot be said to be completely solved so far; the electric vehicle products of old car companies such as Volkswagen and Jaguar Land Rover have also been recalled after their release in recent years...
Every life and death shuffle is a rectification and conditioning of the market and industry, and the ancient precept of survival of the fittest has never been invalidated. When the pressure of the entire era hits, if companies don't want to die faster, they must run faster and fly higher.
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