General Aviation Flying Cars Status quo and future
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This article was first published in "Civil Aviation TODAY" magazine and transferred from the IFLY WeChat public account of Civil Aviation Today
The current state and future of the flying automotive industry
Written by Xue Fulong zhao Lijin
Xue Fulong: School of Vehicle and Vehicle Transportation, Tsinghua University
Zhao Lijin: Strategic Institute of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China
Aviation new energy power is a strategic highland for a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change, and the new energy power of flying vehicles is the main grasp and breakthrough in the development of aviation new energy power.
In August 2021, SAE International invited Professor Zhang Yangjun, china's first Wright Brothers Medal winner and director of the General Aviation Technology Research Center of Tsinghua University, to lead the organization and write a cutting-edge cross-cutting technology research report "Unsettled Topics Concerning Flying Cars for Urban Air Mobility" (Editor's Note: "The Unsettled Flying Car To Be Solved" Officially released globally, unlike the commercial report, this technical research report on flying cars and urban air traffic does not blindly "sing more", but objectively analyzes the key technologies of flying cars and points out their development bottlenecks. Based on the SAEEDGE research report (EPR2021011), this paper analyzes the bottlenecks in the development of flying vehicles and puts forward development suggestions based on the current situation of the industry.
#01
The industry is popular, but the development dilemma is difficult to break
In recent years, the number of companies involved in the research and development of flying cars has increased sharply, and capital has poured in. In 2016, there were only six or seven flying cars in the world, and only two years later, in 2018, more than 70 companies participated in the research and development of flying cars, and as of the first half of 2021, more than 200 companies or institutions were researching about 420 models of related products. The enterprises that lay out the flight automotive industry include aviation industry giants such as Boeing and Airbus, as well as traditional automobile manufacturers such as Toyota and Geely, as well as emerging technology companies such as EHang and Xiaopeng, and Tesla's latest trend has become a bellwether for the flying automotive industry. The influx of capital is an important manifestation of the industry's popularity, such as Boeing's acquisition of aviation technology company Aurora Flight Sciences and will work with Porsche to develop an electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle (eVTOL); Toyota has invested in Joby Aviation and Sky Drive; Geely Automobile has acquired Terrafugia in the United States and invested in Volocopoter in Germany. China's network technology giant Tencent has also led Lilium twice.
However, the development of flying cars still faces many dilemmas such as rules, technology and markets.
In terms of rules, there are no clear standards and rules for the airworthiness certification of flying cars, and the standards of general aviation vehicles and ground vehicles cannot fully reflect the characteristics of flying cars, although low-altitude flight and ground driving have their own regulations, but the mechanism for effectively connecting and managing the operation of flying vehicles has not been formed;
In terms of technology, the endurance and safety performance of the current flying car are difficult to meet the requirements of urban air traffic for the means of delivery, and the performance limitations of the existing power battery make the low load and short range the main bottleneck of the current flying car application; the environmental perception, decision-making and control technology of low-altitude intelligent driving is not mature, resulting in safety under weather and terrain changes.
In terms of the market, the hardware and software facilities required for the operation of flying cars are very lacking, the number of helipads on the roof is too small and does not match the needs of flying cars in terms of charging maintenance and command and control; the qualifications of operators and their profit models, customer acceptance and community environmental impact are not yet mature, and at present, all countries in the world have not yet realized the normal operation of flying cars; in addition, how to demarcate "routes", how to formulate flight procedures, how to avoid and define accident liability, Research on a range of specific issues, including how air safety regulation and enforcement means are implemented, is just beginning.
#02
The prospects are supportive, but key technologies need to be innovated
The development prospect of flying cars is supported by objective demand traction and technology.
On the demand side, urban traffic congestion is the most common problem in today's major cities, traditional measures such as viaducts and underground tunnels have been difficult to effectively solve the problem of traffic flow network effect of urban congestion, helicopters are limited in application scenarios due to loud noise and limited safety; urban transportation urgently needs to develop and utilize the low-altitude three-dimensional space of the city through flying cars, so as to achieve three-dimensional intelligent transportation.
In terms of technology, the rapid progress of electric vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles has made technical and industrial reserves for the development of electric flying vehicles; the emergence of electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), that is, electric flying vehicles, has made high-safety and low-noise urban air traffic possible; the development of vehicle electrification and intelligence will establish "land-air integration", and the development of aviation electrification and intelligence will establish "air-ground integration", and the development of these two technologies will provide support for the future three-dimensional intelligent transportation.
However, to promote the application of flying cars, it is necessary to continue to innovate in key technologies such as platform configuration, flight control driving and power propulsion.
In terms of platform configuration, today's mainstream vertical take-off and landing flying car platform configuration has a small lift-to-drag ratio and a large aerodynamic resistance, resulting in a small load and poor economy; in the future, the high-lift-to-drag ratio lightweight structural platform such as comprehensive aerodynamic layout, structural lightweight and all-configuration lift body design is an important direction for the overall design of flying vehicles. In terms of flight control driving, from the perspective of urban air traffic management and the demand for large-scale application of driving skills for flying cars, it is required that flying cars should be intelligent and unmanned; the obstacle environment faced by flying cars at low altitude is not as complex as the ground, but the meteorological environment seriously affects the safety of low-altitude flight.
In terms of power propulsion, the power of existing flying cars is mainly power batteries, and there are relatively few research and innovations for new energy power, mainly for the selection, system integration and application of existing technologies and products; the current power system has a low power-to-weight ratio, poor safety and poor economy, which is the main bottleneck of flying vehicle power promotion. Trial operation and experience based on the state of existing technology has certain risks, and once an accident occurs, it will adversely affect the healthy development of the entire industry.
#03
Carbon reduction is the bright spot, but the indirect impact is more far-reaching
Under the background of China's active promotion of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", transportation and other industries, including flying cars, are paying more and more attention to emission reduction and decarbonization. The current mainstream form of flying cars is the electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle (eVTOL), so the media and the public have more publicity about the "green environmental protection" of flying cars, but the main effect of carbon reduction of flying cars is not only reflected in the electrification of their own operations. In recent years, carbon emissions in the transportation sector account for about 10% to 15% of China's terminal carbon emissions, while the carbon emissions caused by traffic congestion in a medium-sized city account for about 30% of the carbon emissions of ground transportation, and the proportion of large cities is higher. Flying car direct operation is limited in the foreseeable future, but the carbon reduction effect of ground transportation brought by flying cars will significantly reduce carbon emissions across the transportation industry.
The "decentralization" effect of flying cars on cities will have a long-term impact on the development of urban and rural areas and the layout of social public resources. In the future, the transportation convenience brought by flying cars will make it easier to promote the reconstruction of central urban areas to achieve urban renewal; urban population and industrial relief will also promote infrastructure construction and consumption development in suburbs and even rural areas; rural residents can enjoy urban services more quickly, and urban residents can also be more convenient to get close to nature, thereby accelerating the integration of urban and rural areas and affecting the development of cities and villages. Flying cars make full use of the three-dimensional space of the city, the roof and the low altitude of the city are turned into available transportation resources, the top form of the existing urban buildings need to change greatly; urban relief will make the layout of public resources such as education, medical care and other public resources need to be re-planned due to population structure and distribution; the future batch operation of flying cars will make the flow of people, logistics, capital and information in the city surge, and the information equipment system such as smart transportation and smart city will become an essential urban infrastructure. In addition, the decongestion of the population in the city center will enable the city to have more public greenery, less domestic garbage and a more spacious and clean cityscape; it will enable citizens to jump out of the "building forest" and "matchbox" residences and have a wider working and living space; it will also promote people's communication from the Internet to the reality of face-to-face, greatly improving people's sense of gain, happiness and security in life. While this is a positive expectation, it will also pose new challenges to urban planning and public administration.
#04
Promote the flight of the automotive industry in our country
Recommendations for innovative development
For the flight automotive industry, to remove the clouds of enterprises entering the market and the capital rushing in, in the face of objective development dilemmas and technical bottlenecks, we recommend actively carrying out industrial layout and scientifically promoting technological development:
First, strengthen the top-level design.
It is recommended that relevant departments specially study and formulate the strategic development plan of China's flying automobiles, systematically lay out the development of China's flying automobile-related industries and supporting infrastructure, introduce or improve relevant industrial policies, and provide support for innovation, talents, applications, norms, and standards in the flight automobile industry. Organize industry organizations and university professional research teams in the two major fields of aviation and automobiles to jointly study and formulate the technology roadmap for the development of flying vehicles in China; learn from the experience of formulating relevant laws and regulations in the fields of autonomous vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles in China, and study and formulate relevant standards such as airworthiness certification of flying vehicles in China, so as to promote the healthy development of the industry.
The second is to increase technology research and development.
It is recommended to integrate the advantages of the two major fields of automobile and aviation, and build a flying vehicle technology innovation system with cross-border integration of automobile and aviation. Relying on electric vehicle technology and industrial foundation, increase the research and development of key technologies of flying vehicles such as platform configuration, intelligent driving and power propulsion, carry out research on common advanced technologies such as new energy aviation, new energy power generation and new energy ground transportation; carry out joint research on flying vehicle technology in a targeted manner, focus on breaking through key technologies of flying vehicles such as high-power electric propulsion, high-lift-to-drag ratio lightweight body, and low-altitude flying intelligent driving, and promote the rapid development of component technology and the independent control of core technologies; actively explore the intersection of cutting-edge technologies. Collaborative innovation and development model of cross-border integration of industry.
The third is to cultivate a market environment.
It is recommended to select hot spots with a good foundation in the domestic flying automobile industry, such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Collaborative Region, the Yangtze River Delta Metropolitan Agglomeration, the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, to promote the capacity building of flying vehicle technology testing and safe operation testing and evaluation institutions; to select areas with precise needs and urgent application scenarios, such as traffic congestion cities, inconvenient mountainous areas and fire, emergency, logistics and other departments, to carry out flying vehicle demonstration applications in an orderly manner after loading materials, and to combine with the construction of new energy infrastructure such as national hydrogen energy. Actively layout the construction or reserve the software and hardware conditions required for the operation of flying vehicles, actively carry out scientific education for flying cars and urban air traffic to the public, and gradually cultivate and improve the market environment suitable for the development of flying vehicles.
According to the comprehensive view of the SAEEDGE report, the development of flying cars still has a long way to go. Professor Zhang Yangjun, the chief author of the report, believes that "aviation new energy power is a strategic highland for a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change, and flying vehicle new energy power is the main starting point and breakthrough for the development of aviation new energy power." "China's flying car as the traction will effectively enhance the independent innovation ability of new energy vehicles and new energy aviation, and promote the integration and innovation of the industry." The dream era of flying cars will accelerate because we face up to and actively solve the problems in development!
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