Abstract: The relaxation of airworthiness certification by the civil aviation department and the blessing of the capital market are expected to make flying cars the next outlet, but how to land the business model is still a major problem facing the flying automobile industry
Wen | Guo Huaiyi
Editor| Zhao Cheng
On February 15, at the annual CCTV Lantern Party, the host's footage of the lanterns in a flying car in the night sky caused another public concern about flying cars. It is reported that the flying car that appeared at the CCTV Lantern Party is the fourth-generation flight product traveler X1 of Xiaopeng Huitian.
"Xiaopeng Huitian has actually started the exploration of manned flight since 2013, which means that we have been deeply involved in the field of flight for more than 8 years." Xiaopeng Huitian told Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche): "The flying car we planned is a product that can both fly and run, and truly realize the coupling of automobile and aviation. ”
In addition to Xiaopeng Huitian, a number of Chinese companies have also entered the field of flying cars. The "loosening" of the civil aviation sector in policy has also opened up space for the further development of the industry.
▲ Source: Xiaopeng Huitian
Airworthiness certification is loosened, and EHang takes the lead in "taking off"
Unlike the popular name of the flying car outside, the industry regards it as an electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle (hereinafter referred to as eVTOL). Therefore, the flying car is not actually a car, but an aircraft.
Before it can be formally commercialized, eVTOL needs to pass a rigorous review by the civil aviation authorities to ensure its safety during flight, which is known within the aviation industry as airworthiness certification. Therefore, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has been cautious for many years.
However, in December 2021, the Civil Aviation Administration of China suddenly "broke the ice" and issued the Notice on Soliciting Opinions on the Special Conditions for the Qualification Verification Project of the EH216-S Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Piloted Aircraft System Model of EHang, requiring the Civil Aviation Regional Administration, the Civil Aviation University, the Civil Aviation Cadre Academy, the Academy of Aviation Sciences, the Second Institute of Civil Aviation, the Airworthiness Certification Center and other institutions to submit feedback according to the "EH216-S Unmanned Aerial Vehicle System Special Conditions Draft" before December 20.
The release of the opinion also means that the world's first fully autonomous vehicle airworthiness certification will be born in China. Why is the civil aviation authorities giving the green light to EHang (NASDAQ:EH)? The outside world generally believes that from the official expression, this is not unrelated to external pressure.
▲ Image source network
In 2016, Uber took the lead in releasing the "Urban Air Mobility White Paper", proposing eVTOL and Urban Air Mobility (UAM).
In 2018, Morgan Stanley noted in its Air Traffic Industry Research Report that by 2040, the market size of air transportation is expected to reach $1.5 trillion.
In June and July 2020, the governments of South Korea and Japan issued their own air transport industry development plans.
In view of this, in November 2020, the Inspection Office of the General Office of the State Council clearly stated in the circular: "The United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries have raised the urban air transportation industry with huge future development space to the national strategic level, but the relevant strategic research on the mainland is lagging behind, policies, regulations and industry standards are still in a blank state, and enterprises are facing problems such as flight approval, flight permits, and market launches." It is recommended that the development of urban air traffic be included in the national strategy, relevant policy documents will be issued, relevant standards will be formulated, and the healthy development of the industry will be promoted. ”
In 2022, Tao Juan, a researcher at the Airworthiness Verification Department of the Central and South Administration of the Civil Aviation Administration, said at a forum: "Internationally, this field (referring to air traffic) is developing very fast, and we do not want the efficiency of the government to affect the development of the industry." ”
▲ EHang official website
In addition to EHang, which is applying for airworthiness certification, the relevant person in charge of Xiaopeng Huitian told Caijingqiche that the company is also actively applying for airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Administration: "At present, we are also discussing with the Civil Aviation Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other relevant departments to promote airworthiness according to the final configuration and application scenarios of each product iteration, and the approval of the two-headed competent department will be obtained before the mass production of flying vehicles." ”
In addition, Geely Technology's low-altitude travel business enterprise Wofei Long Sky has obtained the FAA airworthiness certification in January 2021. As for whether it is striving for the airworthiness certification of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, Wofei Changkong told Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche): "The domestic eVTOL-related airworthiness certification standards are still being formulated, and the Civil Aviation Administration and relevant departments have tried to do some pilots in Hainan, Sichuan and other places. But for businesses, it still takes time from product manufacturing to allowing operations. ”
The capital market is favored, and the business model has yet to be landed
Although not many companies apply for or even obtain airworthiness certification, capital has already poured into the flying automotive industry.
In 2019, EHang (NASDAQ:EH) was the first to list on NASDAQ, becoming the world's first UAM company to go public.
In 2021, the American flying car companies Archer and Joy, the German flying car company Lilium and the British flying car company Vertical have completed the listing.
In October 2021, Xiaopeng Huitian completed a Series A financing of US$500 million, which is also the largest single financing in the flying automotive industry. In addition, Fengfei Airlines, Shi Technology, Volante Aviation and Weihang Technology have also been financed.
But with the rapid influx of capital, the business model that flying cars will use to make a profit has become another difficult problem. Taking EHang as an example, in April 2021, EHang announced that it would shift from a single device manufacturer model to a "manufacturer + operator" dual-drive model: not only to do "Tesla in the air", but also to do "Uber in the air".
However, judging from the third quarterly report of 2021, EHang's exploration is difficult to say successful. According to the financial report data, in the third quarter of 2021, EHang's revenue was 48.1 million yuan, down 61% year-on-year; net profit loss exceeded 200 million yuan, down as much as 443% year-on-year. EHang frankly believes that strategic transformation is the main reason for the sharp decline in the company's product sales and revenue.
Regarding the "manufacturer + operator" model adopted by EHang, the relevant person in charge of Xiaopeng Huitian told Caijing Automobile (ID: caijingqiche): "We do not reject this business model, but we will give priority to direct consumers, because xiaopeng Huitian's product development is To C (consumer-oriented). Wofei Long Sky said it was open to the operating model.
▲ Xiaopeng Huitian
It is worth noting that on the same day that Xiaopeng Huitian Flying Car landed on the CCTV Lantern Party, All Nippon Airways, the parent company of Japan's All Nippon Airways, announced that in order to get involved in the field of air flying vehicles, it will carry out "flying taxi" business cooperation with the American company Joby Aviation, and the two sides will cooperate in shipping systems, take-off and landing site construction, pilot training, aviation control and other fields.
With the inability to achieve profitability, and even the business model has not yet been clarified, why are all kinds of forces still rushing in?
"Changing the way humans travel is a very big thing, just the transition from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles has created such a sensational effect, if even the way of travel is changed, how much room is there for imagination?" A Shanghai UAM business person explained the popularity of the flying auto industry in a previous interview with Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche).