Per reporter: Sun Lei Per editor: Pei Jianru
Flying cars, which often appear in science fiction movies, are gradually entering reality.
Recently, the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the Outline of the Medium- and Long-term Development Plan for Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Field of Transportation (2021-2035) (hereinafter referred to as the Outline), which clarifies the guiding ideology, basic principles, development goals and main tasks of the mainland's transportation science and technology innovation work in the next fifteen years. Among them, the flying car will be clearly written into the planning outline, and the research and development of the flying car will be deployed, breaking through the integration of the aircraft and the car, and the free switching between flight and ground driving.
An employee of a flying car company told the "Daily Economic News" reporter: "Flying cars are a relatively emerging field, and there is no ready-made experience in core technology, supply chain, application scenarios, airworthiness regulations and other aspects to refer to." The strategic deployment of flying cars in the "Outline" is very good news, on the one hand, it points out the development direction of flying cars, on the other hand, the support of policies will also help flying cars to achieve industrialization. ”
The trillion-dollar market has led companies to scramble for layout
In fact, flying cars have previously become the "new favorite" competed by related enterprises and capital markets, and it is the huge commercial value of flying cars that are aimed at behind the competition.
"By 2030, the flying automotive industry will create a market size of $300 billion, initially transforming some of the market share of ground transportation, aircraft and public transportation, while technological developments will eventually open up a number of new business areas, which can grow to a $1.5 trillion market by 2040." Morgan Stanley said in a related research report.
On the other hand, the consumer side is also full of yearning for flying cars as a new way of travel. According to the results of the "2021 Urban Transportation Questionnaire Survey" jointly launched by The Daily Economic News and Tencent Automobile, 35.8% of the respondents expect that amphibious flying cars can join the field of shared travel.
In the view of Xu Hong, a senior analyst at Wilson, the increasingly congested urban roads and chaotic traffic conditions have greatly reduced the efficiency of cars. "In this case, the extension of ground traffic from the road surface up and down will become a development trend, down is the subway, up is the flying car." Xu Hong said.
Image source: Per reporter Huang Xinxu photographed (data map)
It is understood that at present, both technology companies and automobile companies are competing for layout in the field of flying cars. Up to now, the technology companies in the field of flying cars include Google, Uber, Intel, etc., and the auto companies that have entered the game include Xiaopeng Motors, Honda, Daimler, Toyota, Hyundai, General Motors, Geely, Suzuki, Stellantis Group, etc.
It is worth mentioning that many companies will use electric vehicle technology in the process of building flying cars. The relevant person in charge of Xiaopeng Automobile once told reporters that the products of Xiaopeng Huitian introduced the relevant technologies of Xiaopeng Automobile in high-level intelligent driving and other aspects, and when the 6th generation of Xiaopeng Huitian flying cars took off, landed and flew, the automatic driving system and flight control system will assist the driver to take off and land safely and avoid obstacles in the air according to the assessment of driving intention and environmental surrounding environment.
"Electric flying cars with vertical take-off and landing functions that highlight the advantages of flight mode have become the mainstream of flying car research and development at home and abroad. The development of electric vehicles has laid a better technical and industrial foundation for electric aviation. Zhang Yangjun, professor at tsinghua university's School of Vehicles and Vehicles and executive deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy Conservation, said.
Logistics or the best scenario for the current demonstration application
It is worth noting that although the policy has given the flying car a "green light", the development of the flying automobile industry itself is still facing the test of battery technology, commercialization and other levels, and there is still a long way to go from the goal of the "air traffic era".
First of all, the current battery technology may still be the biggest obstacle to the commercial operation of flying cars. Some analysts believe that because flying cars are driven by electricity, and the power battery is large in weight, the energy it can provide per unit of mass is limited. On the other hand, the batteries required by the aviation industry need to have more efficient charging efficiency and better low temperature performance.
"The batteries of flying cars require a very high energy density in order to be able to stay in the air. And they also require very high power when taking off and landing, requiring a lot of power to rise and fall vertically. Wang Chaoyang, a mechanical engineer at Penn State University, once said.
Image source: Daily Economic News Infographic
At the commercial level, flying cars also face challenges. The 2020 financial report released by EHang Intelligence (EH.US), the "first stock of flying cars", shows that its total revenue for the whole year is 180 million yuan, but the accounts receivable are as high as 179 million yuan. Behind the data, its products are not hot, and can only exchange the dilemma of income growth with a super long credit account period.
In this context, EHang Intelligent has announced a second transformation, from a flying car "manufacturer" to an "operation service provider" and repositioned as an "aerial Uber". However, some analysts believe that as the main model for the commercialization of flying cars, the operation of "air taxis" also faces many problems.
It is understood that the application for airworthiness permits by private aircraft on the mainland is normally promoted in the order of "no-load-carry-carry-man". In the manned stage, it is necessary to obtain an airworthiness certificate to obtain an operating license, and subsequent commercialization also needs to obtain a business license. However, as far as the current stage of flying automobile products is concerned, it is still unknown whether they can be certified under the domestic airworthiness management regulations.
"Overall, the development of flying cars is still in the early stages of moving from research and exploration to commercial application." Zhang Yangjun believes that logistics is the best scenario for the current demonstration application of flying cars, which can achieve large-scale applications while the requirements for safety are relatively low. In the case of many bottlenecks such as rules, the application of flying cars should carry objects first and then people.
Daily economic news