The Tesla Semi electric truck, which has been delayed in delivery, is about to start delivery. A few days ago, overseas media reported that Tesla may deliver the first batch of 15 Semi semi-trailer trucks to Pepsi At the end of this month.
As Tesla's blockbuster product in the commercial market, Tesla Semi electric trucks have been released as early as 2017. The pure electric truck, which starts at $150,000 (about 968,000 yuan), has received many orders since its debut, with Pride Group Enterprise (PGE) ordering 150 units, United Parcel Service ordering 125 units, and PepsiCo ordering 100 units. If nothing else, the first 15 Semi trucks delivered this time should have been an order placed by PepsiCo at the time.
As for why the Tesla Semi electric truck, which has been delayed, chose to start small batch deliveries shortly after the start of 2022, I think the most important reason is that the market is changing and Tesla is ready to deliver Semi trucks on a large scale.
Semi who has been skipping tickets
Before analyzing why Semi is making small deliveries at this time, let's take a look at the basics of Semi. On November 14, 2017, Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled tesla semi in Hawthorne, California. Unlike the previous Model S, Model X and Model 3, which still belong to the passenger car category, Semi is Tesla's first product to enter the commercial vehicle market.
Perhaps in Musk's eyes, in addition to the rocket can not be electric, the rest of the means of transport can be electrified transformation, since the electric vehicle has been done, it is also natural to do electric trucks. According to Tesla, the semi's battery structure is similar to the battery structure of Tesla's energy products, supporting repeated charging, and its motor is developed from the motor equipped with the Model 3, which means that it can share parts with the Model 3.
In addition, although it is an electric truck, Semi's performance is not weak, in the no-load state, its acceleration can reach 5 seconds and 100 kilometers; in the case of 36 tons, the acceleration of 100 kilometers can reach 20 seconds. It should be known that in the case of a traditional semi-trailer truck with a load of 36 tons, the acceleration is generally more than 45 seconds, which shows that Semi has a strong performance.
It is worth mentioning that in addition to the Semi's extremely sci-fi exterior styling, Tesla's assisted driving system Autopilot also appeared on the Semi. Unlike the Model 3 version, the Semi in-vehicle sensor not only detects the body condition, but also transmits positive or negative torque to each wheel and controls all the brakes individually, avoiding bending of the vehicle while braking. In addition, Semi's body surrounds cameras to assist in object detection, minimize visual blind spots, and automatically alert the driver to hazards or obstacles. Autopilot features automatic emergency braking, automatic lane keeping, and lane departure warning.
In terms of endurance, Tesla equipped Semi with a power battery with a capacity of up to 500kWh, with a maximum range of 500 miles (more than 800 kilometers), not only that, Tesla also developed a Megacharger for Tesla Semi that is more efficient than the charging rate of the supercharger station, charging for 30 minutes and driving 400 miles (about 650 kilometers).
As for the cost concerns of consumers, according to Musk, semi will save businesses 25 cents per mile compared to traditional diesel vehicles. If trucks travel 100,000 miles a year, each Semi would save the company $25,000, or about 20 percent of the cost of a van. It is precisely because of Semi's many advantages that it will gain the favor of many merchants soon after its debut. It is understood that companies such as Walmart, Meijer and trucking company JBHunt have placed orders for Semi to Tesla.
At the press conference, Musk has always sworn that Semi will carry out mass production delivery in 2019, but the mass production time in Musk's mouth has always been Schrödinger's time, which is very unbelievable, so Semi and Tesla's other car companies began its delayed delivery career, has been skipping tickets, and has not begun to deliver until now.
For Semi's previous delay in delivery, I think in addition to the lack of core in Musk's mouth, the supply chain has been affected, there are no more than three points, the first point is that the market at that time was not mature. Although Semi has many advantages, in 2017, the market prospects for electric trucks are not clear, limited by the policies, battery technology and supporting facilities at that time, if Tesla focuses on Semi's mass production, whether Tesla can survive until now will be a question mark. Secondly, Tesla was facing a financial crisis at that time, and Musk's focus was mainly on the large-scale mass production of the Model 3, and it was reasonable to ignore the immature Semi.
The last point is that I have always believed that the most fundamental reason for hindering semi mass production is that Tesla's Megacharger charging station for Semi has not made much progress. Unlike passenger cars, Semi, as a commercial vehicle, places higher demands on supporting facilities. Because of the high-intensity state of use of commercial vehicles, special attention is paid to the efficiency of energy replenishment. Although in Musk's introduction, Tesla's Megacharger charging station charging power can reach 1.6MW, which can add 400 miles (about 643km) of cruising range for Semi trucks in 30 minutes, but because this charging technology was too advanced at the time, Tesla's Megacharger charging station project has been in a stagnant state in the past few years, and in the past two years, with the gradual maturity of Tesla's third-generation supercharger pile, that is, up to 250kW charging pile, Tesla, which has mastered the experience of ultra-high voltage charging pile operation, restarted the Megacharger charging station project 。 The reason why Tesla Semi can smoothly open small-scale delivery, I think the big probability is that Tesla believes that megacharger charging station technology has matured and can be tested has a great relationship.
Semi is not waiting for mass production
The biggest reason why Tesla chose to deliver Semi in small batches shortly after the beginning of 2022 is that the time is running out, the market is changing dramatically, and the current commercial market is more friendly to electric trucks than the market environment released by Semi in 2017. Taking the domestic market as an example, according to the "Monthly Database of New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain" previously released by the Institute of High Industry Industry (GGII), the sales volume of new energy heavy trucks in China from January to November 2021 was 7426 vehicles, an increase of 223% year-on-year. The Institute of High Industry also believes that in view of the current situation, heavy industrial enterprises such as steel and coal prefer zero-emission or lower-carbon emission models for the product types of future transport vehicles. There is no doubt that under the dual carbon target, new energy heavy trucks will usher in a new development opportunity. Not only that, it is expected that driven by long-term policies, by 2025, China's electric heavy trucks will show a spurt of development, the market capacity will reach 140,000, of which short-distance heavy trucks will reach 50,000, and urban logistics vehicles and urban light trucks are expected to exceed 90,000. All indications are that the market for electric trucks is on the eve of an outbreak, and the significance of Tesla's small batch delivery of Semi is self-evident, that is, to seize the opportunity of the market.
In addition, the increase in competitors is also an important reason why Tesla chose to deliver Semi in small batches at this time. Unlike when Semi first appeared, the electric heavy-duty truck market at that time was basically equivalent to a blank, so Semi attracted great attention just after its release. With Semi's repeated ticket hopping, more and more car companies have begun to focus on the market segment of electric trucks, which was ignored in the past. Today's electric truck market has welcomed many strong players, such as Volvo, which has a large market share in the commercial heavy-duty truck market, began to drive electric vehicles shortly after the launch of Semi. Since 2018, Volvo has launched a total of three pure electric trucks, namely FL Electric, FE series electric trucks and Vera self-driving electric trucks, of which Vera self-driving electric trucks are used in ports and large logistics centers. In addition to Walmart, Daimler, the world's highest sales volume of heavy-duty trucks, has also been involved in the pure electric truck business for a long time. Shortly after Tesla released Semi, daimler group launched two brands of electric trucks, one is the Mercedes-Benz brand concept car Urban eTruck, and the other is the Canter E-Cell launched by Daimler's subsidiary Mitsubishi Fuso.
In the U.S. market, Nikola Motor Co., once known as the "Tesla Killer", also released its own new energy heavy-duty truck Nikola One shortly after Tesla released Semi. Unlike semi, which is driven by pure electric power, the Nikola One is powered by hydrogen fuel, which can travel 800 to 1,200 miles with a single full load, and can also travel 15 to 20 miles per gallon when also fully loaded. According to information previously disclosed by Nikolai, nearly $3 billion in bookings were received within 30 days of the launch of Nikola One. Although Nikola Motor Co. is now under investigation for its involvement in counterfeiting, and there is not much threat to Tesla, its launch of Nikola One, which does not have such high requirements for supporting facilities, is obviously more user-friendly and user-friendly than Semi.
With Semi's repeated ticket jumps, many car companies have also begun to focus on multi-mode power switching new energy heavy trucks, taking Geely's Launch in early November 2021 as an example. Like Semi, Geely H also emphasizes smart driving. According to the information disclosed by Geely, Geely Xinghan H will rely on the technology accumulation of Geely Holding Group in the advantages of earth orbit satellites, chips and algorithms, and through the continuous evolution and upgrading capabilities of OTAs, realize L3-level highway automatic driving and L4-level limited scene automatic driving in 2023, realize L4-level trunk logistics autonomous driving in 2026, and achieve L5-level fully autonomous driving in 2030. However, unlike Semi, Geely's definition of remote Xinghan H is a new energy heavy truck, so Geely matches it with a variety of new energy power modes such as pure electric power exchange, extended range power exchange, methanol P2 hybrid, etc., which can be switched according to different environments and operating scenarios.
In addition to the expansion of the market scale and the increasing number of competitors, the gradual improvement of Semi's supporting construction is also an important factor. As early as October 2021, there were foreign media reports that Tesla was signing its first Megacharger charging station at the Nevada factory, which was much higher than Tesla's existing Supercharger supercharger station, which could charge Tesla Semi electric trucks with large battery capacity. The Tesla Semi opened a small batch of mass production, which means that Tesla is ready to face the large-scale mass production of Semi in terms of supporting construction.
Not only that, the significance of the small batch delivery of Semi is more, first of all, to give the market an explanation, as a product released in 2017, Semi has been jumping tickets, it is easy for the outside world to mistakenly think that Tesla has abandoned the research and development of the project, and instead focused on cyberruck, which is loved by American consumers. Tesla opened semi small batch deliveries in early 2022, no doubt to tell the market that it did not ignore the mass production of this car. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the mass production of Tesla Semi is a very test of whether its charging equipment meets the requirements, with the completion of megacharger charging stations and the delivery of Semi's small batches, the next test came to megacharger charging stations. If, in the early stages of operation, the efficiency of the Megacharger charging station can achieve the effect of Tesla's design, then Semi's large-scale delivery will quickly be on Tesla's work agenda. After all, as a Tess who has successfully operated a supercharger pile, replicating a similar model is only a trivial matter.
Summary: With Tesla's sales performance in 2021, Tesla has become a veritable hegemon of the new energy market, but there is still a long way to go from becoming the "king of trams". Given the huge advantages currently established, as the chip shortage gradually weakens, after surviving the most difficult mass production crisis, Tesla can finally free up its hands to solve the problem of jumping tickets for electric truck Semi and Cyberteruck. This time Semi's small batch delivery means that Tesla is one step closer to the "king of the tram", if in time, once the problem of Cyberruck's delayed delivery is solved, then Tesla will officially ascend the throne after improving the product line.