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Whether the 30% decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles + premium growth can affect the sales trend

Whether the 30% decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles + premium growth can affect the sales trend

For friends who want to buy new energy vehicles, 2022 is the last opportunity to enjoy the policy dividends and finally "get on the car". Because from January 1, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, that is, the subsidy for pure electric passenger cars with a cruising range of 300-400km (including 300km) will be reduced to 9100 yuan, and the subsidy will be reduced by 3900 yuan; the subsidy for pure electric passenger cars above 400km (including 400km) will be reduced to 12,600 yuan, and the subsidy will be reduced by 5400 yuan; the subsidy for plug-in hybrid models will be reduced to 4800 yuan, and the subsidy will be reduced by 2040 yuan. Starting in 2023, these subsidies will be completely eliminated.

Take the official guidance price of 84,800 yuan Ofla Black Cat as an example, the car NEDC comprehensive mileage of 405km, corresponding to the previous year's subsidy is reduced by 5400 yuan, just the subsidy this item, the cost of buying a car increased by 6.4%.

Coincidentally, on December 27, 2021, the Shanghai Insurance Exchange officially launched the new energy vehicle insurance trading platform, and the first batch of new energy vehicle exclusive insurance products of 12 property insurance companies, such as PICC Property & Casualty, Ping An Property & Casualty, and CPIC Property & Casualty, provided support for the landing of new energy vehicle captive insurance products.

After the launch of the new energy vehicle exclusive insurance product, some netizens immediately reflected: the premium has risen!

Looking carefully, the new energy exclusive car insurance on the line this time contains 3 main insurances and 13 additional insurances, of which the main insurance includes new energy vehicle loss insurance, new energy vehicle third-party liability insurance, and new energy vehicle personnel liability insurance.

In addition to clarifying the insurance liability of the three-electric system (battery, motor, and electronic control) belonging to the vehicle damage insurance, the exclusive insurance also covers the scenarios of driving, parking, charging and operation at the use level; secondly, for the unique risks of new energy vehicles, additional insurance such as loss of self-use charging piles and loss of external power grid failures is added.

In other words, the coverage of car damage insurance is greater, and there are more types of insurance. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand the increase in car damage insurance premiums.

Similarly, taking the Tesla Model Y feedback from netizens as an example, the insurance plan launched by an insurance company was 8278 yuan on the 23rd, and after the new deal on the 27th, the insurance fee directly rose to nearly 15,000 yuan, an increase of up to 80%. The netizen also said that the oil money saved has changed to the premium.

Of course, the increase is only in a few cases. All in all, after the introduction of new energy vehicle exclusive insurance products, the premium has indeed risen.

Under the influence of subsidy decline and premium price increase, will consumers' purchase demand for new energy vehicles be reduced?

Since the implementation of the New Deal is not long, it is too early to answer this question, and it will take time and data to test.

Whether the 30% decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles + premium growth can affect the sales trend

However, in the view of industry experts, these two factors have little impact on the sales of new energy vehicles.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Passenger Transport Association, believes that the original expectation of new energy passenger car sales of 4.8 million in 2022 should be adjusted to 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25%. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, also believes that the penetration rate of the domestic new energy vehicle market will exceed 20% in 2022, and the annual sales volume will reach about 5 million.

In addition, Weilai Li Bin also said that in 2021, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate reached more than 20%, and it was only 5% at the end of 2020, indicating that more and more consumers recognize the benefits of new energy vehicles and electric vehicles, and there are more and more reasons to buy electric vehicles.

According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, in the first 11 months of 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles will be 2.514 million units, and it is expected that the annual sales will not exceed 3 million units. This data is still some distance from the sales data estimated by industry experts in 2022, but what can be seen is that the industry does not believe that subsidies and premium growth have a greater impact on the sales of new energy vehicles.

It is worth mentioning that in the face of policy adjustments in the new energy vehicle industry, automobile OEMs and terminal dealers are also taking corresponding measures to deal with it.

It is understood that Xiaopeng Motors, BAIC Jihu and SAIC Volkswagen have chosen to pay out of their own pockets and set a transition period for this year's subsidy decline; Changan Ford, BYD, Great Wall Euler, Chery New Energy, SAIC-GM-Wuling and other car companies have not increased prices at present; while some models of Weilai Automobile, Tesla, FAW-Volkswagen, GAC Ae-An and other car companies have already increased prices.

A salesman of Xiaopeng Motors in Beijing said, "If you pay the deposit before January 10, you can also enjoy the rights and interests of the national subsidy in 2021." After this point in time, many of Xiaopeng's models on sale will rise by about five or six thousand yuan. In addition, a SAIC Volkswagen sales staff also said, "Our store is now subsidizing the cost of national subsidies, and the time is not clear." If it is not subsidized, the price of the car will be much more expensive than it was a few years ago. ”

The most typical thing to do in this regard is Tesla, as early as the end of November, Tesla has officially announced that the Model 3/Model Y price increased by 4752 yuan. However, before New Year's Day, Tesla continued to officially announce the model 3/Model Y price increase, and it was still a big rise, the Model 3 rear wheel drive version rose by 10,000 yuan, the price was 265652 yuan. Model Y rear wheel drive version rose by 21,088 yuan to 301,840 yuan, the whole series exceeded the subsidy price line, can not enjoy the national subsidy policy (the price is more than 300,000 yuan, non-replacement models are not subsidized).

Of course, there are also some brands that have not increased their prices and are not sure whether they will increase their prices in the future, such as Ford, BYD, etc.

In fact, the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" previously issued by the State Council mentioned that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 20% of the total sales of new automobiles. That is to say, the government estimates that by 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 20%.

In November this year, the sales volume of new energy narrow passenger cars was 378,000 units, and the sales volume of the domestic passenger car market reached 1.816 million units, and in the single month of November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 20.81%, reaching the expected penetration rate of 2025 ahead of schedule, but the cumulative sales accounted for only 14%. It is not difficult to see that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still some distance from the target value of 2025.

Written in the end: the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles has actually begun to decline sharply from 2019, and the actual sales in recent years have not decreased but increased, which is largely attributed to the gradual improvement of the product strength of new energy models and the enhancement of competitiveness, especially in high-end models, consumers are not sensitive to prices.

In addition, in order to promote the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in rural areas, relevant departments have also cooperated with some automobile brands to carry out a series of new energy vehicle activities to the countryside. These aspects are helping to accelerate the popularization of new energy vehicles, so as to gradually reach or even exceed the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.

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