The global crisis of missing cores intensified in 2021, and has not improved from last year to this year. Deloitte recently released a report saying that it is estimated that the chip shortage will continue in 2022, and the chip delivery period will be delayed by about 10 to 20 weeks, and the situation will be alleviated by early 2023. Referring to 2019, the normal cycle of chip delivery is 6 to 9 weeks.
Last year, the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the production capacity of the United States, Southeast Asia, South Korea and Japan, where the chip manufacturing industry is concentrated. The cold wave in Texas, the United States, and the fire in the Ibaraki chip factory in Japan have made the chip industry worse.
At the beginning of 2022, ASML Holding, an Asma holding company that provides key technologies for computer chips, reported that a fire at its manufacturing plant in Germany could further exacerbate the problem of global "lack of cores".
Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland said:
"The rate of delivery extension has been erratic, but picked up again in December. Lead times are at record highs in almost all product categories, with power management and MCUs (microcontrollers) being particularly critical. ”
Historical experience shows that the extension of delivery times is accompanied by a painful period of oversupply. Customers may try to buy more chips than they need right now to secure access to the chips, and then cancel the list, known in the industry as a double order.
Chip shortages have rippled across industries, including electronics, automotive, heavy equipment, appliances and other consumer durables that rely on automation applications.
The electronics industry is severely affected by the lack of cores. Wall Street Insights analyzed earlier articles, even if Apple's Mac computer abandons the Intel Intel processor to use self-developed chips, its 2021 iPhone 13 Pro series mobile phones and Macbook Pro notebook shipping cycles are 2 to 4 weeks longer than before.
The long-term shortage of various types of chips, in addition to the epidemic restrictions on manufacturers' production capacity and logistics and transportation, has also been affected by the rapid promotion of digital transformation from enterprises and the surge in demand for consumer electronic devices. Deloitte pointed out in the report that since the middle of 2021, a variety of semiconductors have faced short supply, especially the shortage of high-end 3nm, 5nm and 7nm process chips, which has caused more than $500 billion in economic losses.
Under the pressure of capacity shortages and strong demand imbalances between supply and demand, chipmaker giants are scrambling to expand production. According to the latest research report from ICINSIGHTS, it is estimated that global semiconductor capital expenditure will reach a record $152 billion in 2021, of which about one-third will come from semiconductor enterprise capital expenditure.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has risen more than 200 percent since the lows of the pandemic in early 2020.
