With the ringing of the bell at the end of 2021, the production and sales of China's automobiles have once again been fixed in the historical record with the world's first achievements. At the same time, China Quality Newspaper and Periodicals China Quality News Network released the "China Mainstream Automobile Market Automobile Reliability Index" (hereinafter referred to as the index) for the first time. Among them, the average score of each brand in the joint venture camp is 66.1, the average score of each brand in the independent camp is 47.9, and the average score of each brand in the luxury camp is 37.6; Lexus, Beijing Hyundai and Great Wall Haval rank first in the reliability index of the luxury, joint venture and independent camps respectively.
The index shows that: in terms of reliability, the main camp of China's automobiles is still a joint venture, while luxury cars due to manufacturing materials, high process requirements, rapid technological updates and many other factors, reliability to achieve satisfactory results, the need for China's automobile-related industries the overall level of improvement. What is gratifying is that the index tells us that after twenty years of hard work, the automobile production enterprises in China's independent camp have done the basic homework of industrial production of household cars.
Luxury Brands:
(Above the average are five brands: Lexus, Cadillac, Audi, Volvo and BMW))
Joint Venture Brands:
(Above the average line, there are seven brands of Beijing Hyundai, Dongfeng Nissan, FAW Toyota, SAIC-GM Chevrolet, Dongfeng Honda, GAC Honda and GAC Toyota)
Independent brands:
(On the average line, there are six brands of Great Wall Haval, Great Wall Wei, Chery, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Changan Automobile and SAIC Roewe brand)
Reliability experts take the lead, tens of millions of pieces of data as the basis
Liu Jia, vice president of China Quality Newspaper, introduced the original intention of the launch of the "index": "Although we are already the world's largest automobile production and sales country, so far we have not seen an objective, scientific and authoritative automobile reliability evaluation index to give users consumer guidance, and the user's understanding of automobile quality is still dominated by corporate publicity." To this end, China Quality News Agency China Quality News Network invited China's reliability experts, Professor Kang Rui of the School of Reliability and Systems Engineering of Beihang University to take the lead, and jointly provided data support with Shanghai Happy Intelligent Technology Development Co., Ltd., and built a 'China Mainstream Automobile Market Reliability Evaluation Index Platform'. Our actions are supported by BMW Brilliance, Audi, FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Volvo, GAC Toyota, GAC Honda, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors and many other automotive companies. ”
Liu Jia, vice president of China Quality Newspaper
Regarding the data basis of the index released this time, Liu Jia said that this is the first time that China has used big data to clean out more than 400,000 effective car maintenance records in more than 10 million car maintenance data, and combined with the user complaint data received, verified and verified by automotive experts through the automotive experts, and the recall data of China's automobile defective products in the past four years, a total of nearly 500,000 valid data. The data sample covers most of China's region, and it is finally determined that 35 mainstream car brands for sale in China can be counted, that is to say: the average effective statistical sample of each brand exceeds 10,000.
Regarding the index calculation method, Liu Jia said that such a thick data base is the first time in China's automobile reliability research, and the expert team led by Professor Kang Rui conducts reliability research on the data in seven dimensions: engine assembly, chassis transmission system, chassis steering system, chassis brake system, chassis suspension system, body and electronic system.
The index is based on the invited experts of China's mainstream automobile enterprises to provide the calculation coefficients of each assembly fault weight, and the automotive product expert Wan Chunlei finally integrates into the fault weight calculation coefficient model, Professor Kang Rui of the School of Reliability and Systems Engineering of Beihang University is responsible for designing the calculation model, and Shanghai Happy Xing Intelligent Technology Development Co., Ltd. provides algorithm development and technical support to calculate more than 500,000 effective statistical data and obtain the above results.
According to the publisher of the index, affected by data support, the index does not include new energy vehicles, only fuel vehicles.
Professor Kang Rui, School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University
Regarding the scientific nature of the index, Professor Kang Rui said: "The index results are in line with both the scientific principle of reliability and the principle of reliability engineering. ”
The index prompts auto companies: to improve reliability, it is necessary to quickly add another whip
In response to the index reflecting the current situation of the reliability of China's automotive products, Professor Kang Rui pointed out: "The research index we see: reliability score of 100 points, the average score of 35 mainstream brands of cars on sale in China is only 53 points, not reaching the passing line; especially the failure rate of core components such as luxury and joint venture brand car engines is high; and the reliability of the same brand and the same type of vehicle is far worse than the performance of the European and American markets." These three characteristics show that although China has become the world's largest automobile producer and consumer, from a big automobile production and sales country to an automobile manufacturing power, our auto industry stakeholders still need to continue to refuel. ”
The index presents that can represent the reliability level of China's automobiles is the joint venture camp, the average of the reliability index crosses the passing line, while the average line of the luxury camp and the autonomous camp is below the passing line, and the difference between the first and last places of the reliability index of the autonomous camp is several tens! This shows that the overall quality of the cars produced by China's joint ventures is stable, while the luxury and independent camp cars have their own obvious shortcomings in terms of product reliability that need to be made up urgently.
The failure rate mentioned in this report refers to the proportion of the corresponding assembly failure number per 10,000 maintenance records of a brand in the sample space in the total number of failures of the brand.
The data shows that among the luxury camps included in the statistics, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, that is, the "BBA" engine failure rate is often said to be more than 10%, that is, the "BBA" car accounts for 10% of the total number of product failures; in the luxury camp, except for Lexus, the localized products produced by the joint venture account for more than 70% of the brand sample on average.
Automotive product expert Wan Chunlei (middle)
What causes luxury brand engine failures to occur frequently? Wan Chunlei, an expert in automotive products, pointed out: "Since 2012, the state has introduced a series of rigid policies for fuel vehicles to reduce fuel consumption, and luxury brands that used to rely on large displacement to survive have made positive changes according to policy guidance, that is, replacing small displacement engines and equipped with 48V light mixing systems and other energy-saving and emission-reduction methods have become the mainstream." In the process of research and development and exploration of a new generation of powertrains, engine assembly failures are frequent, and the data shows that the average failure rate of some brands of engines is even close to 20%. ”
The index prompts automotive R&D: grasp the balance between product reliability and technological progress
Although the performance of the independent brand market has risen rapidly in recent years, today's Chinese auto market is still dominated by joint venture cars, and people are accustomed to dividing joint venture cars into German, Japanese and American brands according to their joint venture brand background. German cars are "high quality", Japanese cars are "affordable", American cars are "fashionable and cool"... The joint venture has been deeply rooted in China for three decades, and the above labels have been solidified in the user's consumer association. Is this really the case?
At the end of 2020, the 2019 Passat refreshed the record low score of 25% bias collision in the crash evaluation of the C-IASI of China Insurance Research Institute, the A-pillar bending firewall invaded the cab, the steering wheel also carried airbags "misaligned", and the test dummy was seriously injured... For the first time, the image of "High Quality German Cars" was pulled off the altar.
In 2019, the Volkswagen Passat performed poorly in the mid-security research crash test
If it is a shocking and accidental event, the index joint venture camp "Volkswagen" system "built" the bottom, once again confirming the fact that the quality of the "Volkswagen" series has entered a rapid decline channel.
Based on the above tens of millions of car maintenance records, more than 500,000 effective statistical data analysis results show that the overall performance of German cars that have always been proud of the rigor and high quality of German products is poor, and the top three reliability of the joint venture camp are covered by the "Volkswagen" system of Chinese three musketeers, and the "Volkswagen" system can be described as "completely destroyed" in this reliability index.
The reliability index of Japanese and Korean products performed well, for example, Beijing Hyundai, which did not have eye-catching market performance, occupied the first place in the reliability evaluation index of the joint venture camp. Japanese cars, such as Dongfeng Nissan, Guangqi Honda, and "North-South Toyota", have all crossed the average reliability line.
The Lexus brand did not unexpectedly win the first place in the luxury camp reliability evaluation index, and the American brand Cadillac became the second in the luxury camp, and actually ranked first in the local luxury reliability evaluation index.
Is there something wrong with data analysis? Or is our past perception inherently a beautiful lie? Zhang Ji, general manager of Shanghai Happy Xing Intelligent Technology Development Co., Ltd., said: "The index only presents the performance of a certain automobile brand product from the perspective of reliability, and the sample of this survey is calculated by the number of kilometers, most of which are cars sold between 2016 and 2018, although the automobile technology is in the transition period, most of the traditional fuel vehicles are still using mature technologies that have been used for many years." Especially in the Japanese and Korean car companies are more common, so the data shows that japanese and Korean car companies perform better, such as engines, transmissions, steering, etc.
"For example, Beijing Hyundai was able to rank first in the composite index of joint venture brands, mainly due to its technical stability. In this survey sample, more than 50% of the sample of Beijing Hyundai is the Irant model. Based on the kilometers, most of the models in the sample are the fourth, fifth and sixth generation Elantra, of which the fourth generation Elantra was sold from 2006 to 2016, the fifth generation was from 2010 to 2016, and the sixth generation was from 2016 to 2020. The common features of the three generations are that they all provide 1.6L G4ED models. In other words, the engine has been in service for three generations for 15 years without major changes. Its design and manufacturing technology is relatively mature, and its reliability is high.
"In contrast, most of the current 'Volkswagen' brand fuel vehicles use almost EA211 and EA888 two engine products, both belong to the new engine products launched in the past decade, which requires a more precise process and more complex technology, and the data shows that the engine reliability of the 'Volkswagen' series of products is relatively low."
"In addition, the reliability performance of several core key assemblies such as the 'Volkswagen' system in the transmission system, braking system, and electronic control system is lower than the average line of the joint venture camp."
"For products with low technical generation difference and mature mechanical technology, they have undergone accumulated reliability tests, and have also experienced a large number of multi-working conditions in the market, which has a natural advantage for automobile companies in collecting core component failure data." This advantage is more conducive to the performance of parts reliability, which is the product of continuous trial and error and upgrading of automobile companies. Therefore, the reliability of this type of product is relatively good. ”
In response to our questions, Professor Kang Rui testified: "For products with rapid technological progress, due to the short technology launch time, it is still in the stage of trial and error and technology upgrading, and its performance in reliability is relatively poor, which is also in line with the basic laws of reliability science." ”
The index reminds consumers: do not be too eager to pursue the new, strange and special functions of the car
Since the beginning of this year, the "core" famine of the automobile industry has not only exposed the problem of the development of the automobile industry chain, but also shows that the focus of the reliability problem of the vehicles currently on sale in China is the electrical system.
The data shows that with the rapid transformation of China's automobile industry to electrification and intelligence, the failure rate of the electrical system has peaked, and the number of total faults in the luxury camp, the joint venture camp and the autonomous camp in their maintenance records is 58.28%, 38.90% and 61.95%, respectively. In particular, the leading brands of the independent camp: WEY, Lynk & Co, BYD and Hongqi have exceeded 70% of the electronic control system failure rate; among them, the Hongqi brand ranks first with a failure rate of 77.08%.
Hongqi brand ranks first in the list of electronic control system failure rates with a proportion of 77.08%.
The electrical system contains the assembly of all the electricity used by the vehicle, and the recall information in the past four years shows that whether it is luxury, joint venture or independent brand, the probability of problems in the electronic control system is relatively large, and the Takata air bag is an example. The probability of problems with the brand electrical system of these three camps basically depends on the degree of electrification of the product.
Judging from the user complaint data received by China Quality News Network in the past two years, 90% of them are the quality problems of the automotive electrical system, which also proves that the reliability of the automotive electrical system is unstable and has become a new bottleneck in China's automotive quality assurance. On the other hand, due to the user's pursuit of intelligent and new functions of the car, the automobile companies in order to seize the market to meet the user's demands, have been running all the way on the road of electrification and intelligence, and even some companies have not yet completed the product function support, they will show the new function to the user at the new product listing conference. After the misguided users bought the product, they found that the function they went straight to was still stuck in the PPT advertised when the company was listed.
Experts pointed out that the development cycle of a model is about 3-5 years, and the research and development cycle of a core technology may take longer. In recent years, whether from the perspective of policy or technological development, the speed of electrification has accelerated, resulting in a shorter research and development cycle of technologies related to electrification, such as 48V light mixing, vehicle systems, assisted driving and other technologies that meet the needs of electrification development cannot be fully matured and introduced to the market, resulting in insufficient reliability.
At this point, from the perspective of automobile reliability analysis, we remind the majority of automobile consumers: do not be too enthusiastic about pursuing new, strange and special functions, this surge promotes technological progress, and finally tastes the bitter fruit of immature technology.
Courtesy of China Quality News Network