As the first international auto show in the global automotive industry at the beginning of 2022, the 2022 (fourth) Haikou International New Energy and Intelligent Connected Automobile Exhibition was grandly opened at the Hainan International Convention and Exhibition Center.
The new stage presents three new trends
Looking back at 2021, the continuous epidemic and raw material price increases, chip shortages, etc. have made the global automotive industry difficult, but it is a historic year for new energy and smart vehicles. In the field of new energy, the world's new energy head car companies broke through the market value of trillions of US dollars for the first time, the head battery companies broke through the market value of trillions of yuan, the sales of new energy vehicles in a single car company approached the scale of one million vehicles, china's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 3 million for the first time, an increase of up to 170%, private users accounted for more than 80%, and the market penetration rate exceeded 10% for the first time. In terms of intelligent networking, the market penetration rate of L2 passenger cars in China has reached 20%, more than 5 million vehicles equipped with 5G and LTE-V2X and other networked terminals, more than 5,000 kilometers of open road test mileage in the country, and more than 10 million kilometers of safe road testing. At the opening ceremony, Wang Xia, president of the Automotive Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and president of the China Chamber of International Commerce in the Automotive Industry, said that since the key technologies of electric vehicles were included in the national "Eighth Five-Year Plan", the development of new energy vehicles in China has gone through 30 years. China's new energy and intelligent networked vehicles have gone through the initial stage of development, and are fully entering a new stage of development of higher quality, and showing a new development trend.
First, policy will go the other way. The new stage of development is marked by a complete shift from policy-driven to market-driven. The biggest difference between this high growth and the last one is the result of market promotion. In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be reduced by another 30%, with a minimum subsidy of less than 5,000 yuan per vehicle and a maximum of more than 12,000 yuan, and there will be no subsidies from next year. Of course, the policy will not be absent from here, but will shift from an encouraging policy to a management policy, and the decomposition and landing of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals will have a profound impact on the next development of new energy vehicles. Secondly, the real competition has just begun, and it will be more and more difficult to lead. Traditional car giants have begun to invest huge amounts of money in new energy vehicles, larger Internet and technology company giants have begun to enter the car, policy subsidies are about to disappear, and the next competition will only become more intense. Brands that have grown up on subsidies and are less competitive will accelerate their exit. If you want to continue to lead the market, you can only innovate in technology and work the underlying technology and original innovation. 1000 km endurance, skateboard chassis, fuel cells, etc., more technical problems are waiting for everyone to overcome. Finally, the track is long enough and there's the next tipping point. In the initial stage, some business models have gone through the conceptual and exploration stages and begun to land from the air, such as the integrated mode of optical storage and charging, the power exchange mode, and the battery bank. Once these new models are transferred to stable commercial operations, they will definitely produce a new round of strong impetus for new energy vehicles. When innovative technology makes new energy vehicles absolutely better than fuel vehicles in terms of performance and cost, it is the arrival of the next critical point, which will surely usher in a larger-scale and more lasting exhibition of new energy vehicles. Scientific and technological innovation will always be the core of new energy intelligent vehicles, and only scientific and technological innovation is the eternal outlet.
Where are the changes in the future new energy vehicle industry chain
In the afternoon of the opening ceremony, the author participated in the forum on the automotive supply chain, and Mr. Huang Yonghe, senior chief expert of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, shared his unique insights on the new energy vehicle industry chain.
In September 2020, the State Council announced the "2035 New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan", which carried out top-level planning and design for the development of the next 15 years, mainly including: overall deployment, five major measures, five columns, and five major safeguard measures. In Huang Yonghe's view, improving innovation capabilities is still the primary task of the development of the parts industry, and the very important scientific and technological innovation in the 2035 plan still refers to the key components of new energy vehicles, while integrating smart cars, or intelligent networked vehicles. The proportion of key components is very high, mainly involving the improvement of the basic technical capabilities of the relevant industries, as well as the construction of key common technological innovation platforms, especially the specific requirements of power battery breakthrough actions. New energy vehicles are still in a period of rapid growth, and the outside world defines last year as the first year of the development of new energy vehicles. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 10%, and the passenger car field has exceeded 15%. From the perspective of the body, intelligent, networked and humanized functional design will become the key to the differentiated competition of new energy vehicle products. Electrification, the main point of competition in the next step is intelligence and networking, including a variety of differentiated products suitable for consumer consumption. Considering the development of the industry, especially the changes in the consumption structure, in 2025, 2030, the market size of new energy vehicles we predict that it is possible to reach 7 million and 14 million, the market share will reach 26% and 47%, which is a relatively basic scenario of the forecast, the other is relatively optimistic, the main reason is that in the case of carbon peak, carbon neutrality This "double carbon" goal, the development of new energy vehicles will further accelerate.
Power battery industry chain, power batteries are currently mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta, jiangsu and Zhejiang as the representative of the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Lu as the representative of the Bohai Rim region, some central cities in recent years the industrial growth is relatively fast, especially in the case of carbon neutrality target, batteries in the production process of carbon dioxide emissions the highest, power sources such as the southwest region a lot of hydropower, belongs to green energy, in this area layout will also become the next step of the basic direction of the layout of power battery enterprises. Ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are still the mainstream technology routes, and solid-state batteries are likely to achieve large-scale commercial applications between 2025 and 2030. Electric drive system, at present, the motor, electronic control has formed the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta industrial layout. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, there are Jingjin Motor, BAIC New Energy, and United Electronics; in the Yangtze River Delta region, there are Shanghai Pneumatic, Huayu Electric, Magna, Suzhou Green Control; and the Pearl River Delta has BYD, Huichuan Technology, Dayang Electric, etc., and this layout is also consistent with the 2035 new energy plan. From the perspective of the market share of motors and electronic controls, Tesla, BYD and Founder Motors account for 40%, and the market concentration is getting higher and higher. There is a feature, Hongguang MINI hot sales situation, successfully driven the number of Lishuangling Motors, including Sunshine Electric Power, Yingboer and other domestic independent motor enterprises to increase the production capacity. From the perspective of the development trend of the motor, high voltage, high integration, high reliability, high power density, high sound quality, and high cost performance will become the main direction in the future.