I have some superficial and different views on this.
In my opinion, subject to the constraints of the Shu Han's small territory and sparse population, even if Zhuge Liang did his best to develop the national strength of the Shu Han, the achievements he could achieve were limited.
Therefore, whether compared with Cao Wei, which occupied the entire north, or compared with the Wu state that occupied the four prefectures of Jing, Yang, Jiao, and Guang, the strength of Shu Han must be the weakest!
Moreover, even if Zhuge Liang did his best to increase the strength of the Shu state, wouldn't Cao Wei's strength increase?
It's like comparing wealth between a middle class and a millionaire. Even if the middle class earns some wealth through desperate efforts and lives a leisurely life of financial freedom, it is still not comparable to the multi-millionaire.
The Shu Han of the Three Kingdoms era was like that middle class, and Cao Wei was like the multi-millionaire.
Cao Wei occupies the north with the most developed economy, the richest material, the most mature production, and the largest population!
The Shu Han Dynasty, on the other hand, had a population of more than one million at most.
In that special era when the size of the population determines everything, the size of the population determines not only the level of a country's productive capacity, but also determines whether a country's war capability is strong or not.
After all, people are needed to develop production, and people are also needed to form an army to fight wars, and no one can play around!
Don't you see, the "population wars" recorded in the Zizhi Tongjian that occurred many times in the Three Kingdoms era? Cao Wei robbed the population of the State of Wu, and the State of Wu also robbed the population of Cao Wei.
In order to make up for the lack of population, Sun Quan even sent Wei Wen to lead troops to today's southeast treasure island to collect the natives there?
He also encircled and suppressed the "Mountain Yi" many times, forcing those people to go down the mountain to produce or become soldiers! Zhuge Ke did just that.
In a word: population is everything!
Of course, we cannot deny mr. Zhuge Liang's wisdom and ability, if not dragged down by the Northern Expedition, Mr. Old Man will certainly be able to rely on the favorable conditions of Yizhou, which is free of water and drought, to build Shu Han into a "country of heaven" where the people are rich and the country is prosperous.
But what about later?
As the saying goes, a country has no external troubles, but will have internal troubles.
Don't forget, Liu Bei Group is a foreigner from Jingzhou! If it were not for the Northern Expedition to the Central Plains and the restoration of the Han Dynasty as the banner, and the fact that the Eastern Han Dynasty would have been the natural heir, how could the Yizhou native group obediently obey orders and provide for them?
Moreover, the continuation of the peace will inevitably lead to the ruling class being indulged in pleasure, content with a corner of peace without knowing how to forge ahead, and it is easy to lose its vigilance.
Let's see, which of the regimes in history that have been divided into Shu lands can last a long time?
After the collapse of the New Mang Dynasty, Gongsun Shu was also arrogant on the basis of Shu, but in the end he was destroyed by the Guangwu Emperor Liu Xiu.
Therefore, Mr. Zhuge Liang still looks at it accurately! Just one sentence, "Don't cut down the thief and die", it tells the embarrassing situation of the dilemma faced by Shu Han!
In short: since the strength of shu Han was not enough to compete with Cao Wei, it was difficult to avoid the fate of being swallowed up by a strong enemy, whether the Northern Expedition or not!
If you don't go north, perhaps because your national strength is slightly stronger, you will be swallowed up by strong enemies later. The Northern Expedition will be swallowed up by a strong enemy sooner because of the overdraft of national strength!