Today's power battery market is facing more choices.
The full text is 6210 words, and it takes about 12 minutes to read
Wen | Yuan Jingming
Edited | Lin Zeling
Chen Junyi Chang Liang
Caption | 123RF
On December 23, 2021, the Nikkei Chinese network reported that the price of battery metals used in pure electric vehicle (EV) batteries is high. In addition to the record price of lithium, cobalt is also at a 3-year high. Under the decarbonization trend, the demand for pure electric vehicles has soared, but the supply has not been able to keep up. It is predicted that the supply will not increase until after the autumn of 2022, and the high price state is expected to continue for some time.
Cobalt is one of the main raw materials for ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 90% of the raw material cost of ternary lithium batteries. As a rare mineral, cobalt mining conditions are extremely unstable and expensive, resulting in fragile supply chains and easy impact on downstream industries. To a large extent, this has caused the high cost of raw materials for ternary lithium batteries, and has also brought great cost pressure to ternary lithium battery manufacturers.
The high price of cobalt directly leads to the decline in the installed capacity and market share of ternary lithium batteries. Relevant statistics show that in 2020, the cumulative sales of domestic power batteries reached 65.9GWh, of which ternary lithium batteries were installed in a total of 38.9GWh, accounting for 61.1%, a cumulative decrease of 4.1%; lithium iron phosphate batteries were installed 24.4GWh, accounting for 38.3%, a cumulative increase of 20.6%, and it is also the only power battery type that has achieved year-on-year sales growth.
It is worth noting that in the past year, the installed capacity and market share of ternary lithium batteries have continued to be unsatisfactory, and the signs of further widening of the gap have become more and more obvious.
According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the first 11 months of 2021, the output and installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries. From January to November 2021, the domestic ternary lithium battery load volume accumulated 63.3GWh, accounting for 49.3% of the total installed volume, and the cumulative load of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 64.8GWh, accounting for 50.5% of the total installed vehicle volume.
For a long time, in the power battery market, the competition between ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries has never stopped. So far, the only thing that can be determined is that the current power battery market, ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are still indispensable, but in the end who will fall behind, is a trend that can be judged.
When the price of cobalt in ternary lithium batteries continues to rise, its production cost remains high for a long time, and the gradual decline in the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries will be difficult to avoid. We can think that in the power battery market, ternary lithium batteries are facing the crisis of being gradually replaced.
Why do I need a ternary lithium battery?
With the development of new energy vehicles in China's capital market, from 2009 to 2015, lithium iron phosphate batteries have attracted many automobile manufacturers and power battery manufacturers to "bet" with low cost, high cycle life and high safety. Relevant data show that during the peak period, the highest market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 70% (limited by energy density, pure electric passenger car owners at that time were mainly small and micro).
The first "suspension" of the "good day" of lithium iron phosphate batteries occurred in 2017, when policy subsidies began to change towards encouraging the pursuit of high energy density, and ternary lithium batteries relied on high energy density characteristics to be anti-customer-oriented, increasing market share to 67% in a short period of time, rewriting the "myth" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
At the end of 2016, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a new policy for subsidies for new energy vehicles: since 2017, new energy vehicles have been subsidized according to energy density, and energy densities higher than 120Wh/kg have been subsidized by 1.1 times.
In March 2017, the four central ministries and commissions issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Development of the Automotive Power Battery Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), which clearly pointed out that "improving the battery specific energy will be one of the key development goals in the future".
The key indicators and time nodes mentioned in the "Plan" include: by 2020, the specific energy of lithium-ion power batteries will be >300Wh/kg; the specific energy of the system will strive to reach 260Wh/kg; the cost will be <1 yuan /watt-hour; the use environment will reach -30 °C to 55 °C; the charging capacity will be 3C; by 2025, the specific energy of the single body will reach 500Wh/kg; and strive to realize the industrialization of lithium-ion battery products and vehicle applications of single batteries 350Wh/kg and system 260Wh/kg.
At that time, few lithium iron phosphate batteries could reach an energy density of 120Wh/kg, but ternary lithium batteries could easily have this performance. For the majority of car companies that need power batteries, if the ternary lithium battery is loaded in a model with a range of more than 250 kilometers, it can get an additional subsidy of 4400 yuan.
It is worth noting that the favorable policy of ternary lithium batteries continues.
In November 2021, the "Lithium-ion Battery Industry Specification Conditions (2021 Version)" (Draft for Comment) and the "Measures for the Administration of lithium-ion Battery Industry Specification Announcements (2021 Version)" require that the energy density of the energy-based power battery project unit should be ≥ 180Wh/kg, and the energy density of the battery pack should be ≥ 120Wh/kg. However, at present, the energy density of the mainstream lithium iron phosphate battery is near 160Wh/kg, and most lithium iron phosphate batteries cannot meet the requirements for the energy density of the monomer in the specification.
Undoubtedly, the blessing of high energy density and policy subsidies is the obvious advantage of ternary lithium batteries. In contrast, lithium iron phosphate batteries have little room to break through in the energy density of monomers, and the potential of ternary lithium batteries has not been fully tapped. In fact, it is also the development orientation of the high energy density of lithium-ion batteries that brings a real "spring" to ternary lithium batteries.
However, policy subsidies and positive trends cannot replace the real needs of the market, as many entrepreneurs say: consumers will vote with their feet to choose products that are truly suitable for development.
Subsidies cannot give permanent "right to speak"
In 2019, Zhang Hailiang, CEO of Tianji Automobile, predicted that in the next 3-5 years, ternary lithium batteries will encounter technical bottlenecks.
Now that 2022 has come, it is not yet known when the technical difficulties of ternary lithium batteries will really break through, but it has become a fact that ternary lithium batteries are slowly withdrawing from the ranks of policy care.
In fact, the policy subsidy for ternary lithium batteries is "declining".
In March 2019, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the Notice).
The "Notice" said that the national subsidy has declined significantly, the comprehensive decline in the subsidy base has exceeded 50%, and the transition period from March 26, 2019 to June 25, 2019 is a transition period, during which subsidies will be subsidized at 0.1 times and 0.6 times of the subsidies in 2018. In addition, after the transition period, the local subsidy (local subsidy) was abolished and replaced by supporting supporting facilities such as charging.
In other words, since June 26, 2019, the national subsidy standard for new energy vehicles has been reduced by about 50%, and local subsidies have been directly withdrawn, and the comprehensive subsidy in 2019 has declined by more than 70%.
In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles, proposing to extend the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles to the end of 2022, smooth the intensity and rhythm of subsidy decline, and in principle, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
The strength of the subsidy decline is far more than expected, car companies continue to use ternary lithium batteries, in the case of no price increase, it is difficult to cover the cost, and reducing costs has become the main goal of car companies. The fastest way to reduce costs is to switch battery types.
At that time, driven by the dual progress of the technical level, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been greatly improved. Power battery manufacturers represented by Guoxuan Hi-Tech have increased the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries to 210Wh/kg.
For a long time, cost reduction has always been a topic of concern for new energy vehicle companies, and the price of power batteries has affected the hearts of new energy vehicle companies. When the policy subsidy boom of ternary lithium batteries recedes, lithium iron phosphate batteries that do not contain cobalt have become a new choice for new energy vehicle companies.
Image source: 123RF
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, believes that the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles has gradually changed the direction of operation of new energy vehicle companies, abandoning the pursuit of higher energy density batteries on some models and using relatively cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.
In addition, in addition to the improvement of energy density, since 2019, vehicles equipped with ternary lithium batteries in the early stage have frequently caught fire, and the safety of ternary lithium batteries has once again aroused widespread concern.
Although exploring the cause of an electric vehicle fire is a very complicated process, it is not entirely appropriate to classify ternary lithium batteries as the "culprit". However, it has to be admitted that the continuous spontaneous combustion of new energy vehicles has made the nerves of the consumer market highly tense, which will undoubtedly become a major concern for the choice of the power battery market.
In 2020, BYD President Wang Chuanfu once said that in the field of new energy passenger vehicles in China, there is a phenomenon of endurance comparison between multiple enterprises, and the main way to improve endurance is to improve the energy density of power batteries, which leads to the development of the battery industry. When car companies generally choose ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density, and continue to increase the energy density of batteries, this will inevitably lead to the frequent spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles.
In general, the material of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries will decompose when they reach a certain temperature, but the material of ternary lithium batteries will decompose in an environment of about 200 degrees, while the material decomposition of lithium iron phosphate batteries occurs in an environment of about 800 degrees. And the chemical reaction of the ternary lithium battery material is more intense, which will release oxygen molecules, and the electrolyte will burn rapidly under the action of high temperature, and a chain reaction will occur.
To this end, in May 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a series of mandatory standards for electric vehicles, including a clause that "requires that after the battery unit is thermally out of control, the battery system will not catch fire and not explode within 5 minutes, and reserve a safe escape time for the occupants." This mandatory standard is also considered by the industry to be for ternary lithium batteries, from the previous spontaneous combustion incidents, a number of electric vehicles equipped with ternary lithium batteries from spontaneous combustion to fire time in tens of seconds.
The market chooses, the giants turn around
According to Yiou data, from the perspective of the entire domestic power battery track, the total market value / valuation of China's top ten power battery manufacturers is about 2.55 trillion yuan, of which half of the manufacturers are distributed in the manufacturing industry, with a total market value / valuation of 578.827 billion yuan, accounting for about 22.70% of the total market value / valuation of China's top ten power battery manufacturers.
To a certain extent, at first, the Ningde era was able to quickly occupy the market because it took advantage of the "east wind" of policy subsidies. In 2012, CATL took the lead in obtaining a large order from BMW in the true sense; in 2014, CATL once again received a supplier order from BMW's other pure electric vehicle, the 530Le. These two large orders that have been coveted by power battery manufacturers for a long time have made the Ningde era quickly become hot in the power battery market.
It is worth noting that the Ningde era at that time took into account the two technical routes of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. In the field of passenger cars that are sensitive to mileage, the Ningde era mainly chose ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density; in the field of commercial vehicles, lithium iron phosphate batteries were mainly selected.
In 2016, after the introduction of energy density requirements by the subsidy policy, the market share of ternary lithium battery manufacturers represented by the Cataline era continued to expand. In 2017, the number of supporting models and suppliers of cathetek power batteries in the Ningde era reached 390 models and 64 respectively. Therefore, with the east wind of the subsidy policy, the Ningde era has ascended to the throne of the global shipment champion, laying its position in the power battery market in one fell swoop.
Nowadays, the power battery market pattern has changed again, when the development momentum of ternary lithium batteries is inferior to that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the "Dongfeng" of the subsidy policy is also insufficient, and many onlookers are thinking about how the Ningde era will face this "turmoil".
In fact, the Ningde era has been thinking of danger in times of peace, and has begun to transfer in the development strategy of the technical route and increase investment in lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In November 2021, according to the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily", in response to the rumor that "CATL has set up a branch in South Korea to provide support for the supply of Hyundai Motors", an insider close to the Ningde Era revealed: "The situation is true, ternary, lithium iron phosphate batteries are in supply." ”
Relevant data show that in 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the Ningde era is 30.2GWh, and the installed capacity of ternary iron lithium batteries is 35.7GWh, which is only 1.2 times the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The industry expects that in 2022, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the Ningde era will greatly exceed the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries of the company, and the entire focus of development will change.
In May 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 333rd batch of "Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products", which shows that the tesla Model 3 battery was replaced by a lithium iron phosphate battery.
In addition, at that time, there were media reports that Tesla's lithium iron phosphate battery would be provided by the Ningde era. According to reports, the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery module in the Ningde era has dropped to less than 500 yuan, and the cost of the battery pack will be below 600 yuan. Compared with the high-nickel ternary lithium battery used by Tesla before, the electricity cost is about 1,000 yuan.
In July 2021, Tesla launched the Model Y standard endurance version equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries; in October 2021, Tesla CEO Musk revealed that in the future, the standard endurance versions of the Model 3 and Model Y worldwide will all be switched to lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In fact, in the power battery market, the head companies that choose lithium iron phosphate batteries are not in the minority.
In March 2020, BYD released blade batteries, which can skip "modules" when grouped through structural innovation, greatly improving the volume utilization rate, and finally achieving the design goal of loading more batteries in the same space.
Compared with the traditional modular battery pack, the volume utilization rate of the "blade battery" has increased by more than 50%, and the cruising range has reached the same level of high-energy ternary lithium batteries. Blade batteries make lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low cost, high safety, long service life and large volume energy density, which makes lithium iron phosphate batteries return to the front line and have more blessings.
Wang Chuanfu said that blade batteries will change the industry's dependence on ternary lithium batteries, return the technical route of power batteries to the right path, and redefine the safety standards for new energy vehicles. In April 2021, BYD announced that all of its pure electric passenger models will be equipped with lithium iron phosphate blade batteries.
In addition, domestic manufacturers such as Ewell Lithium Energy and Guoxuan Hi-Tech are also adding lithium iron phosphate batteries, and Korean battery manufacturers such as LG Chem and SKI, which focus on ternary lithium batteries, are also engaged in the lithium iron phosphate route.
In the view of Zhang Hongli, vice president of Guoxuan High-tech Industry and Research Institute, it is not surprising that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has gradually increased, which is the result of market choice.
When the revolution in power battery technology is underway
Power battery technology is undergoing a profound change.
Independent automotive analyst Zhang Xiang said that in three years, switching from ternary lithium batteries to lithium iron phosphate batteries is a trend, and the share of ternary lithium batteries in 2022 will be further reduced.
But this is not the final result of the power battery market, focusing on the development of power battery multiple technical routes manufacturers hope to provide more choices to the market.
In the power battery track, in addition to ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, there are also quaternary lithium batteries.
In March 2020, GM and LG Chem launched a battery product, Ultium, which uses LG Chem's newly developed NCMA quaternary lithium battery. In NCMA quaternary cathode materials, the cobalt element content is reduced from 20% in NCA/NCM 622 to 5%, and the cost is further reduced.
At that time, LG and GM said that the previous mass production cost of LG Chemical NCM 622 was about 148 US dollars (about 1027 yuan), but the mass production cost of NCMA four-yuan lithium battery was 100 US dollars (about 694 yuan), and the cost fell by 32.4%.
More importantly, the cathode material of NCMA tetranary lithium batteries has higher thermal stability.
The technical principle of the four-membered lithium battery is to mix a small amount of aluminum into the NCM ternary lithium cathode material, so that the originally active high-nickel ternary cathode material can maintain a stable state while maintaining a high energy density. Studies have shown that the peak reaction temperature of the cathode material of NCMA tetranary lithium batteries is 205 degrees Celsius, which is higher than the 202 degrees Celsius of NCA cathode material and 200 degrees Celsius of NCM cathode material.
Tetranary lithium batteries can achieve high safety and low cost on the basis of high energy density, which is undoubtedly like the power battery manufacturers expect to see, taking into account the high-quality characteristics of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries.
Reducing the content of cobalt is one of the key factors in reducing production costs. To this end, power battery manufacturers continue to do "subtraction" on cobalt elements, and even simply eliminate cobalt elements and launch cobalt-free batteries.
In May 2020, Great Wall Motors' power battery company Honeycomb Energy released an L6 sheet cobalt-free long battery cell that completely removed the cobalt element. The battery has increased energy density, reduced cost, longer service life, and 70% higher cell life than polycrystalline high nickel ternary.
There are also some battery companies that are studying solid-state batteries.
Essentially, solid-state batteries are an upgrade to ternary lithium batteries. The difference between the two is that the solid-state lithium battery adopts a non-flammable, non-corrosive, non-volatile, non-leaking, good performance of the solid electrolyte at high temperature, and the safety is higher. At the same time, in terms of energy density and charge and discharge performance, solid-state lithium batteries can reach 500-600Wh/kg, the charge and discharge rate can reach more than 5C, and the core parameters are more than double that of the current ternary lithium batteries.
In 2021, CATL obtained two solid-state battery-related patents, and said that it has been able to make samples of solid-state batteries, and is expected to achieve large-scale mass production in 2020; in September of the same year, Guoxuan Hi-Tech said that it will mass-produce solid-state batteries after 2025; Honeycomb Energy and the Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly established a solid-state battery technology research center, planning to mass-produce and install vehicles in 2025.
In addition, in September 2021, the leading enterprises in the domestic iron-lithium cathode material industry, Defang Nano and Dangsheng Technology, successively announced the industrialization progress of their lithium iron phosphate technology upgrade products - lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP).
German Nano said that it has established a "production base project for new phosphate cathode materials with an annual output of 100,000 tons". The landing of the project is considered by the industry that the industrialization process of LMFP is accelerating, and it is expected to be mass-produced and loaded within the next two years.
With the entry of tetranary lithium batteries, cobalt-free batteries, solid-state batteries and lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries, there are many players on the power battery track today. In the next wave of technical route battles, perhaps the conversion of offensive and defensive momentum does not only occur between ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, more players, more power and more choices will make the power battery market have more exports.
RECOMMEND