This article is based on publicly available materials and is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Weilai Automobile Yantai a substation
I have been observing Weilai to change electricity for a while, and I have also written research articles on power replacement before, and I will not repeat it after discussion. Today do some lower-level analysis from a new perspective.
Let's start with the picture. Basically, this figure makes a comparative analysis of the power exchange mode and the charging mode. After carefully reading this picture, I think the most important thing is actually only two points: the length of the recharge, and the product standard. Other problems can be analyzed dynamically from a cost perspective.
About the recharge time. I would like to say that ultra-high voltage fast charging will soon be available, and there will be large-scale landing models in 2022, such as Xiaopeng's G9, and the pure electric model that the ideal is developing. Xiaopeng G9 charging power up to 480KW, known as charging 5 minutes, endurance 200KM. Considering that some families may be equipped with slow charging guns, and parking lots, supermarkets and other properties will gradually be equipped with charging piles, such charging efficiency can actually meet the needs.
Obviously, charging is a route without too many logical paradoxes, simple and straightforward. All that remains is technical research, mass production and delivery density.
Regarding the replacement power station, many people believe that Weilai's current energy replenishment experience is good, so it should insist on investing in power replacement. What I want to say is that before the discussion, we should make a clear consensus: obviously the current electric vehicle is still in the early stage of the industry, the technology development is very rapid, far from the stage of stereotyping and standardization.
Based on this cognitive premise, it will be much easier to discuss.
Why not look forward to changing the power? Let's figure out a few questions first, and the answer will be natural.
This round of electric vehicle revolution is mainly two blocks, one is electrification, and the other is intelligence. Everyone talks a lot about intelligence is the competitive lifeline of future electric vehicles, and being able to realize this shows that they are very far-sighted.
In fact, the electric vehicle revolution, from the perspective of user perception, is divided into two large blocks, one part is perceptible and the other part is imperceptible. Electric vehicles are quiet, fast in response to acceleration, and intelligent and prominent, which are all parts that are easy to be perceived by everyone. Underneath this, there is actually a deep change in the structure of the vehicle, which is the part that is not perceived.
What are the changes in the structure of the whole vehicle? To put it simply, gasoline cars have huge engines, connected to mechanical transmission shafts, exhaust pipes and other mechanical structures, which directly determine the basic layout of the car chassis. Other components can only be laid out on the basis of this basic structure.
And electric cars? It's completely different. It has no engine, no propeller shaft, no exhaust pipe. Instead, there are motors and batteries. And because the battery is generally a plate structure, the quality of the whole vehicle can be 50:50, which gives the electric vehicle a great space for structural design.
There may not be much of a concept to say this, but I'll give you a few examples. For example, the tram does not have an engine, so its front cover can be designed with an anti-collision beam, or because of the fewer structural parts, the whole vehicle body can be more integrated design, thereby enhancing the rigidity of the whole vehicle; for example, compared with the oil car, the various pipes and shafts have become a lot less, replaced by a lot of wires - interesting things come, these wires, in theory, can be integrated through a reasonable layout design, like integrated circuit boards.
Here are two key words: integration, and integration. The so-called integration is to make the parts of the whole vehicle into zero, the advantage is that it can greatly reduce the complexity of the supply chain and improve the structural rigidity and safety of the whole vehicle; the so-called integration is that in the electronics industry for a hundred years, various electronic architectures have become more and more concentrated, chip-oriented, and in a sense comply with Moore's Law.
In fact, with basic common sense and high school physics knowledge, it can be known that the space for integration is limited, and the space for integration cannot be seen in the short term, similar to Moore's Law. Imagine the computer of the 50s, the size of a house, and today's computer, can be condensed to the size of the palm of the hand, and its processing power is countless times greater than that of the computer of the 50s.
Therefore, we can imagine that after 10 to 20 years, the body structure will gradually stabilize, while the electronic and electrical architecture will continue to be condensed and integrated. Many of the controllers that now look relatively large may be further reduced in size in the future, so that they can be easily designed into the frame - this is the skateboard chassis structure that is popular in the capital circle.
Let's look at the battery. The battery is also a more complex electrochemical structure. With the improvement of electrochemistry and energy storage technology, the future battery capacity and battery pack volume will be further reduced to a certain extent, and can also be integrated with the chassis, in fact, zero-run cars are developing such a chassis (CBC chassis), the advantage is high integration, compact structure, while also increasing body rigidity and safety.
Go back and look at the power change. Common sense tells us that the power exchange must be based on the standardization of the battery, otherwise the power exchange cannot be discussed, and it cannot be promoted at all. The standardization of batteries here must be taken apart, one is the standardization of mechanical structures, and the other is the standardization of electrochemical technology. You will find that in fact, with the rapid development of electric vehicle technology, electrochemical technology has already established several standards, and the size structure of the battery pack is not standardized in the short and medium term.
The reason is simple, who doesn't want to have a more integrated body structure, who doesn't want to go further down the road to electrification? Since there is no way to standardize the size structure, how can it be compatible with the endless stream of new models, let alone compatible with various models of other car manufacturers.
This is destined to be a very difficult thing to scale, can not scale, the cost can not be reduced, Weilai will then enter a paradoxical cycle.
In fact, Tesla is a representative of integration and integration. The reason why Tesla has a high gross profit margin is mainly dependent on the redesign of its vehicle structure. This part of the user is basically unable to perceive, reflected in the car company, is the change of the supply chain, the rise in gross profit margin, but also our investors often say, Tesla's manufacturing efficiency is strong.
The route chosen by Weilai to change electricity, on the surface, is a short way, but in fact it is contrary to the trend of the times. Because of the design of the power exchange, the future chassis can not achieve CBC battery body integration, but also must let the chassis structure design give way to the power exchange interface design, further can be inferred, because of the power exchange structure design, Weilai has to give up a lot of efficiency priority design scheme.
Jobs said it well, the user never knows exactly what he needs, as long as you put the perfect product in front of his eyes, he will exclaim, wow, this is what I want. NIO may only cater to the explicit needs of some users, and obviously, they have also taken the easiest and most brainless way to think.
As for the State Grid, PetroChina, Ningde Times, etc., why are they willing to push and change the power model with Weilai? What I would like to say is that this is the most rational choice made from the interests of different sides. The state promotes the implementation of the power exchange model, and also has considerations in terms of resource utilization, diversified exploration, and international competition. The Japanese government and Toyota have been pushing hydrogen energy vehicles for many years, and so far, they have not become the mainstream of the market.
Again, when standing at the cusp of the times, we must figure out what the core rules of the game are, otherwise it will completely become a companion run, and in the end it will only be a flash in the pan or invisible. (Author: among them)