Wen | Li Haoxian
At the beginning of the New Year on Monday, he Ling, the editor-in-chief of "Big Car Observation", sorted out and looked forward to the prospects (portal) of the automotive industry in 2022 from many aspects such as policies, trends, and supply, and it can be said that 2022 is destined to be a year of change.
And all the changes, vision will eventually be reflected in the product, don't you wonder what new technologies and new products will make you move this year?
Today, it is my turn to interpret the development trend of the automotive industry in 2022 and the products worth looking forward to.
The endurance exceeds 1000 km
As the "price butcher" Tesla continues to refresh the lower price limit, and its butterfly effect on the industry, the price is no longer the core reason for restricting everyone's consumption of electric vehicles. Relative to the downward price, the "mileage anxiety" that still cannot be eliminated has obviously become the biggest pain point in the eyes of consumers.
However, in 2022, this pain point will soon cease to exist, because the 1,000-kilometer endurance that everyone is thinking about is close at hand. How close is it? We have taken the lead in realizing the real endurance test of a domestic pure electric vehicle of 1000 kilometers, which will undoubtedly be a major progress in the history of electric vehicle development.
This is mainly due to the advancement of battery technology, such as Nio's 150KWh semi-solid-state battery, with an energy density of 360wh/kg, which will be listed in 2022 as planned, when the ET5 and ET7 equipped with the battery will achieve more than 1000Km cruising range. In addition, the energy density of BYD blade batteries is also expected to increase from 140Wh/kg to 170Wh/kg, and the endurance is even higher.
From the perspective of the planning of various battery suppliers, from 2022 to 2025, there will be innovative applications in power battery technology, including the new cars we test and Niolai are just one of the beneficiaries.
It is foreseeable that in order to maintain competitiveness, the new technology will quickly spread to other car companies, even if it is not a model model can reach 1000 kilometers, at least the launch of new cars will have a lot of progress in endurance, such as 400Km to 600Km, 600Km to 800Km, endurance anxiety will gradually decrease.
At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached the target of 20% 3 years earlier than the national estimate, and it is conceivable that when the short board of mileage is gradually made up, new energy vehicles may usher in a new wave of "rising tide".
Advanced Autopilot: Fairy Fight
Autonomous driving has always been an inseparable topic in the era of intelligent cars. As the vehicle-grade lidar continues to get on the car, it is certain that 2022 will be the year of high-end automatic driving (auxiliary) immortal fights.
Far from it, the first Xiaopeng P5 equipped with lidar has been delivered first, and I also gave priority to the strength of Xiaopeng City Autonomous Driving Assist NGP (Beta) in downtown Guangzhou, although the proficiency is not yet called an old driver, but I believe that it is really not far from the day of "letting go".
In addition to Xiaopeng, this year's new cars equipped with lidar, such as Weilai ET5, ET7, Extraordinary R7, Polar Fox αS Hi Edition, Avita 11, Salon Mecha Dragon can theoretically reach the L3 or even L4 level of automatic driving assistance level, there is no doubt that this year's hot spots in the automotive industry will mainly focus on these cars, we all of course will follow the principle of buying and buying, for everyone to do a good test.
Compared with the impatience of outsiders, car companies are very cautious about the decentralization of high-end automatic driving, for example, although the Xiaopeng P5 has delivered a lidar model, the high-end auxiliary driving function has not been opened, and the reason for the delay in delivery of the Jihu αS Hi version is pointed to the supplier Huawei, both of which are reasons to fully test and then "start". After all, from the closed highway to the busy urban area, the difficulty has not only increased by several dimensions, but also the test of safety is also a leap forward, and caution can be understood.
We may wish to recall 3 years ago, even the most basic collision warning is called high-tech, not to mention what ACC, lane maintenance, who thought that 3 years later, L2.5 automatic driving assistance has covered 100,000 yuan level models, have to admit that the development of the automotive industry is really changing with each passing day, we also have to use the development of the eye to see the problem, keep up with the pace of the times.
Transform completely
2035 is the year that most brands confirm the full realization of full electrification, although there are still 13 years to go before that day, but this does not prevent some brands from taking the lead in transforming into pure electric brands, such as BMW's MINI, Mercedes-Benz's Smart has long confirmed pure electrification, and such brands will be more and more, and the focus of research and development of car companies will also shift.
On the third day of 2022, Mercedes-Benz, as the inventor of the car, can't wait to show off their latest technological achievement - EQXX, such a science fiction work close to mass production.
First of all, in order to achieve the ultimate drag coefficient, the EQXX has created a body form that has never been seen before in EQXX, and the drag coefficient has been reduced to 0.17cd (the lowest drag coefficient in the current mass production car is 0.2cd of the Mercedes-Benz EQS). It should be known that the wind resistance coefficient increases by 5-8km for every 0.01 reduction in the endurance, and the wind resistance coefficient contributes greatly to the mileage.
Thanks to the excellent wind resistance coefficient, EQXX only needs a 100 kWh battery to achieve a cruising range of 1000 km + , according to the introduction of this battery energy density of 400Wh / kg, is the current ternary lithium battery twice, the volume is half of EQS. In addition, thanks to the help of the AMG High Performance Powertrains division, the drivetrain efficiency of the EQXX can reach 95%, while the transmission efficiency of the current mainstream civilian electric vehicle is about 75%.
The more "refined" battery combined with the F1-class lightweight subframe and 3D printing materials used on the EQXX further reduces the overall vehicle weight. The overall weight of the EQXX is only about 1.75 tons, compared to the weight of the Porsche Taycan of 2.2 tons.
Extremely low wind resistance + extremely lightweight + ultra-high efficiency, creating the Mercedes-Benz EQXX in front of you. In my opinion, this may be a new form of electric vehicles in the future, after all, most of the electric vehicles we see so far are based on the contours of fuel vehicles, not the most ideal form.
If EQS shows Mercedes-Benz's determination to transform to electrification, then EQXX seems to want to tell everyone that Mercedes-Benz is going to invent the car for the second time. The determination to transform completely has become irreversible. There is no doubt that Mercedes-Benz took out all the family money without reservation this time.
Imagine that even a big guy who was originally a carefree man has jumped into the game, and other brands have seen that they can transform without effort?
Hybrid burst
The above mentioned pure electric vehicles to achieve 1000 km endurance is just around the corner, but there will certainly be many people who say "I have no charging conditions", "I don't like trams", "batteries are not safe" and other Excuse, which shows that new energy vehicles cannot suddenly become the absolute mainstream, at this time hybrid has become the best solution for car companies to balance coffee regulations and consumer demand.
Otherwise, our own brands will not go to great lengths to launch a hybrid system at this time node. Up to now, Great Wall (Lemon DHT), Geely (Leishen Power), Chery (Kunpeng Power), GAC (Torque Wave Hybrid), Changan (iDD), BYD (DM-i) and other major manufacturers have launched their own unique hybrid systems, of which Geely, Great Wall, and GAC do not need additional charging for oil-electric hybrid (HEV).
Taking the Thor-powered Hoshikoshi L hybrid as an example, under the premise of room temperature of 17 degrees and no violent driving, I personally achieved the level of fuel consumption of 4 to 4.5 L/100Km per 100 kilometers of the city. If driven in the same way, my eighth-generation Camry hybrid is estimated to achieve a maximum of about 5.x L/100Km, and the former can achieve 7.9 seconds of 100 km/h acceleration, which means that Toyota's hybrid system is no longer overwhelming in terms of fuel consumption and power. (This is my personal feeling as a Toyota hybrid owner after trying the Hoshigoku L hybrid)
In 2022, the above-mentioned brands will launch hybrid versions in most of their models, and Great Wall and BYD have taken the lead in taking the lead, and the latter is out of stock for a long time, which shows the huge market demand. From the perspective of the general trend, in the next 10 years, the best way for the internal combustion engine to survive is to "parasitize" the hybrid.
The last civilian performance car
Remember the video last month where Adjo and YYP test-drove a Hyundai N at the speedway and rubbed my A35L AMG on the ground?
Hyundai Motor has not denied the possibility of N Car entering China, and this large-scale test drive and momentum have received a good response, which has further strengthened my view of the introduction of Hyundai N into China. On the one hand, it can enhance Chinese consumers' awareness of modern brands and promote the sales of Beijing Hyundai; second, it can enrich the choice of domestic affordable performance car players.
If you look at it again, 2022 can even be called the last madness of civilian performance cars, the introduction of a new generation of Toyota GR 86, Subaru BRZ can only be said to be the prelude, the next will only be a heavier than one, for example, the introduction of a new generation of Type-R "Civic King" has also been confirmed by many private insiders, and it is also reported that the Nissan Fairlady 400Z equipped with a 3.0T V6 engine is also expected to be introduced, and Toyota's other small steel gun GR It is only a matter of time before Yaris is introduced, and 2022 can even be said to be the year that makes Chinese JDM fans excited.
You should know that the last outbreak of domestic affordable performance cars has been traced back to 10 years ago, and this time it is very likely to be the last wave. I wish you all That Petrohead can grasp the last little tail of the affordable fuel performance car, don't regret it when it comes to discontinuation, these cars will be worth money in the future.
We are undoubtedly the happiest in the midst of a century of change, and the intersection of the old and the new allows us to pursue the convenience brought by new technologies and cherish the preciousness of the old generation's playthings. 2022 is destined to be a dream year, are you ready?