In 2021, individual stocks related to the new energy automobile industry chain will become the darling of the capital market.
According to Wind data, although the trend of new energy vehicle themes, power battery themes, and lithium mine themes fluctuates, the overall trend is upward. In 2021, the above three themes rose by 36.75%, 66.50% and 186.29% respectively.
According to the latest forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 3.4 million in 2021, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year. In this context, the new energy automobile industry chain has also ushered in many new changes, technology, supply chain, market are active, in the rapid promotion of the development of the new energy vehicle industry in 2021, but also for the development of the industry in 2022.
CICC released a research report saying that standing at the starting point of 2022, the electric vehicle sector has experienced a relatively large shock, but it still reiterates that the demand for the midstream industrial chain of new energy vehicles is highly certain, the advantages of leading enterprise technology and upstream and downstream binding of the industrial chain are prominent, and the current point in time plate has reached the bottom area, firmly optimistic about the new energy market in 2022.
Looking forward to 2022, CICC expects the steady growth of industry demand, the rapid increase in new energy penetration, the acceleration of intelligence, and the arrival of industrial change. Under the background of great changes, car companies and even the industrial chain are facing subversion and reshaping, and technology and product innovation that can be rapidly iterated is an important starting point and the core driving force for the company's performance valuation explosion.
e Data:
Looking back at the performance of the new energy vehicle industry chain in 2021, most of the top stock price increases are power batteries and lithium-related concept stocks, occupying seven seats in the top ten list. Among them, the top of the list is 835185. BJ), the main layout of battery negative materials, the stock price rose by about 389.4% per year.
Watchmaking: Per reporter Sun Lei
According to public information, Bertry was established in 2000 and achieved the world's first negative shipment in 2010. However, although Bertry has long been a leading company in anode materials, it has received little attention in the new third board. In the three years after its listing at the end of 2015, its stock price not only did not rise, but fell by 7.37% compared with the beginning of the listing. Until the news of the establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange was released, the trading volume and turnover of Bertrand began to soar, and there was also a high degree of heat in the capital market, and its stock price began to part ways with its parent company China Baoan. At present, the market value of Bertrand has significantly exceeded that of China Baoan.
Some analysts believe that the liquidity of the new third board is not good, the investment threshold is high, resulting in a company similar to Bertry is not highly concerned, and the emergence of the North Stock Exchange has given it a suitable "stage".
Ranking second and third on the list are two lithium concept stocks of Tibet Mining and Salt Lake Shares, with annual stock prices rising by about 309.3% and 300.3% respectively.
In 2021, lithium stands on the outlet, and the price continues to grow. The "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that at the end of 2021, some enterprises received a lithium salt quotation of 300,000 yuan / ton. In addition, driven by downstream demand, the supply of lithium salt is insufficient, and upstream enterprises basically do not implement long orders. Lithium salt companies expect that in 2022, the concentrate will usher in the most scarce moment.
On the demand side, the high prosperity of end market demand continues. From January to November 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached a new high. According to institutional analysis, under the background of the continuous expansion of production and sales of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium salt market continues to improve. In this context, lithium mining concept stocks such as Tibet Mining and Salt Lake Shares have ushered in a surge. Among them, Tibet Mining will harvest 20 up and down boards in 2021.
Double-ring transmission and Xiaokang shares, which are engaged in the research and development of core components of mechanical transmission, are the few non-power battery and lithium mine-related concept stocks in the list. In 2021, Xiaokang shares hitched a ride on Huawei's "express train" and cooperated with it in depth to create the first model of Cyris Huawei Smart SF5 and the new brand AITO, the Q&A M5, which received 28 stop-and-go boards during the year, and several times on the Dragon and Tiger list, and the stock price rose by more than 248.6% during the year.
In terms of the decline list, China Evergrande Automobile (0708. HK) became the "negative squad leader" in 2021, with its share price falling by 88.3% annually. In 2021, Evergrande Automobile's stock price has experienced great ups and downs. In April 2021, Evergrande Automobile's stock price as a whole showed an upward trend, and its market value in April increased by 20.415 billion yuan month-on-month to 488.695 billion yuan, surpassing BYD (002594.SZ) to top the list of Chinese car companies in market value.
Since May, Evergrande Automobile's stock price has declined. Until October, Evergrande Automobile, whose stock price had fallen for several months, stopped its decline, and the company's market value rose to 30.019 billion yuan, an increase of 22.14% month-on-month. It is understood that the decline in Evergrande Automobile's stock price in 2021 is related to the mass production of its unused models, the company's long-term losses, and the performance of the entire Evergrande system. At the end of 2021, Evergrande Automobile's first mass-produced model, Hengchi 5, rolled off the production line at its Tianjin plant.
Ranking second and third in the list are Weilai and Yutong Bus. Among them, NIO's stock price fell by about 35% in 2021. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu said in the research report: "Due to the stock's significantly poor performance in recent months, we think 2022 will be a good buying point. Although amid the lack of new vehicles and supply chain constraints, investor sentiment has been subdued. But we believe that NIO will launch 3 new models in the next 12 months and increase production capacity from 120,000 to 600,000 vehicles, and these plans will fully reverse NIO's current headwinds in the next 12 months. ”
In terms of range net active purchases, power batteries and lithium-related concept stocks dominate the list. Among them, the net active purchase amount of CATL in the whole year of 2021 was 34.762 billion yuan. As the demand for new energy vehicle terminal market continues to rise, as the largest installed power battery supplier, the Ningde era is "like a spring breeze" in the capital market.
In terms of block transactions, as of December 31, 2021, a total of 100 days of large transactions occurred in the CATL era in 2021, with a total of 181 transactions and a total transaction amount of 12.607 billion yuan. The five largest transactions for the year were $1.732 billion on February 4, $1.005 billion on March 29, $1.000 billion on March 12, $867 million on December 13 and $854 million on April 20.
In addition, Tianqi Lithium, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Huayou Cobalt Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium (002460. SZ) also gained favor in 2021, with net active purchases of more than $10 billion during the year.
In terms of market capitalization ranking, CATL, BYD and Great Wall Motors ranked among the top three in the A- and H-share new energy vehicle industry chain related stock market value lists. Among them, ningde era, which achieved a market value of more than one trillion yuan in May 2021, ranked first, and its market value at the end of 2021 was 1370.541 billion yuan, an increase of 67.57% year-on-year.
In addition, Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014. SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460. SZ) and other power batteries and lithium-related concept stocks are also in the forefront of the market capitalization. In 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile, which were listed on Hong Kong stocks, also appeared in the list, ranking fourth and ninth respectively, with market capitalizations of 260.885 billion yuan and 207.232 billion yuan respectively.
e Major Events:
1. Sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 may reach 3.4 million units
According to the latest forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 may reach 3.4 million units, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year; while china's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 5 million units in 2022, accounting for about 20% of total vehicle sales. It is worth noting that the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has risen from 7.2% in January 2021 to 17.8% in November, and the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has approached 20%. The booming market is also attracting more and more entrants. In 2021, Baidu, 360, Xiaomi, Apple, Foxconn and other companies have successively announced cross-border car manufacturing, which has further heated up the already hot new energy automobile industry.
2. The penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles has exceeded that of joint venture brands by ten times
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2021, there are 6 enterprises with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles exceeding 100,000 vehicles, of which independent car companies occupy 5 seats, accounting for more than 80%. It is worth noting that the strong rise of independent brands in the new energy vehicle market has also driven their market share in the automobile market. In November 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 37.4%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles and mainstream joint venture brands was 19.4% and 3.6%, respectively. This means that in the domestic automobile market, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles has exceeded that of joint venture brands by ten times.
3. Trillion NingWang leads, and the heat of the power battery industry has increased
In 2021, the rapid increase in sales of new energy vehicles and the rapid development of energy storage have made battery companies move from behind the scenes to the front of the stage and gain high attention from the capital market and public opinion. As one of the representatives, ningde times (300750.SZ) not only repeatedly set new highs in production and sales, but also achieved a high market value, winning the top position of the ChiNext board. In 2021, the stock price of CATL rose by 67.55%, and the market value exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan during the year. In fact, the strong performance of the Ningde era is not a special case in the power battery-related stocks. According to wind data, in 2021, the lithium battery index has risen by 84.57%. Ewell Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Sunwoda and many other power battery-themed stocks have gained more than 30% during the year.
4. The price of power battery raw materials is rising
Watchmaking: Per reporter Li Shuo (Data source: China Lithium Battery New Energy Network)
In 2021, the rapid increase in the installed capacity of power batteries has also greatly stimulated the demand for raw materials, and the prices of lithium salts, diaphragms, electrolytes and other raw materials have risen significantly. The data shows that in 2021, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 411.36% over the previous year, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 315.24%. Lithium hexafluorophosphate, diaphragm, electrolyte and other materials have also risen sharply due to high technical barriers or due to small supply elasticity. Affected by the price increase of raw materials, the gross profit margin of most battery companies has declined to varying degrees, and increasing the price of terminal products has become one of the countermeasures.
5. Solid-state batteries, hydrogen energy concept "popular"
Since 2021, solid-state batteries and hydrogen energy are becoming the direction of many car companies and battery companies in the new technology route. A number of car companies and battery suppliers have successively released solid-state battery technology product schedules in 2021. At the same time, favorable policies related to the hydrogen energy industry are also coming. According to incomplete statistics, at present, more than 50 prefecture-level cities in China have issued hydrogen energy industry plans, and Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places have successively introduced the "14th Five-Year Plan" hydrogen energy development plan or support policies. According to Oriental Wealth and Wind data, solid-state batteries and fuel cell themes will rise by 70.22% and 45.51% respectively in 2021.
6. Ford's stock price soared faster than Tesla
Shares of Century-Old Ford Soared Nearly 140 percent last year, beating Tesla (49.76 percent), General Motors (40.8 percent) and many new ELECTRIC car startups, publicly available data shows. CEO Jim Farley has promised to be more open and transparent to investors, and he has launched a "Ford+" restructuring plan to shift more resources to making electric vehicles. Since Farley took the helm of Ford more than 15 months ago, the company's stock price has risen more than 200 percent. Morgan Stanley analysts said 2021 was "a truly groundbreaking year for Ford... It was the company's most strategically important year since the financial crisis. ”
e-Reviews:
Huaxi Securities analysis believes that according to the current subsidy policy, the state's subsidy support for new energy vehicles will be withdrawn at the end of 2022. As subsidies continue to decline, the role of policies in promoting the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales has gradually weakened, and the expansion of demand will become the main driving force for sales expansion. According to GGII data, from January to November 2021, the total number of new energy non-operating vehicles was 2.149 million, accounting for 85.4% of the total new energy vehicle insurance. Domestic new energy vehicle sales are driven by the C-end, the demand structure is healthy, and it is expected that the expansion of demand will continue to drive the growth of domestic new energy vehicle sales.
Shanxi Securities also believes that the technology of new energy vehicles is gradually mature, and intelligence gives new energy vehicles more premium space. At the same time, the price of new energy vehicles has a certain cost performance compared with fuel vehicles, it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will gradually increase in 2022, and the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 are expected to reach more than 5 million, of which high-end new energy vehicles and plug-in hybrid models have greater market potential.
In terms of industrial chain, Zheshang Securities believes that the competitive pattern of the vehicle industry has undergone great changes, the market share of new car-making forces and head independent brands will continue to increase, and the speed of model iteration will accelerate, making car companies greatly improve the requirements for service efficiency of parts and components enterprises, and the relationship between automakers and parts companies that have been solidified in the past is expected to be broken, the domestic parts industry chain will rise with the trend, and the industry will usher in reshaping. Based on the development trend of the industry, in 2022, we are optimistic about the five major tracks of the parts sector: Tesla industrial chain, integrated die-casting industry, localization of passenger car seats, line control dynamics and air suspension, core links of intelligent driving and areas with enhanced sense of science and technology.
Tabulation: Per reporter Li Shuo (Data source: Comprehensive Wind, Oriental Wealth as of January 2, 2022)
Among the listed companies in the A-share new energy vehicle industry chain that will focus on in 2021, the five companies with the highest market capitalization are CATL, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Zijin Mining and SAIC Motor. Among them, CATL received 136 securities research reports in 2021, with an average target price of 723.75 yuan / share; Great Wall Motors received the most 161 securities research reports, with an average target price of 74.32 yuan / share.
Huachuang Securities analysis believes that in 2021, the new energy vehicle sector rose by 40.4%, the lithium battery sector rose by 77.3%, while the CSI 300 index rose by -8.0% in the same period, and the overall sector had obvious excess returns. Benefiting from the sales data that exceeded expectations, the market's annual sales forecast for new energy vehicles has undergone several rounds of sharp upward revisions, and "exceeding expectations" and "high prosperity" are synonymous with the plate. Looking forward to 2022, supply optimization and superimposed consumption continue to exert efforts, and China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 5 million. At the same time, the European new energy vehicle market has updated its carbon emission policy and strengthened its carbon emission target, and it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe will exceed 3 million units in 2022.
GF Securities believes that 2020 is the first year of battery structure innovation, 2021 is the first year of innovation of lithium iron phosphate materials, 2022 or will become the first year of electrolyte additives, and continuous iteration of technology will also help advantageous enterprises through the supply and demand cycle. In terms of power batteries, the battery structure innovation represented by CATL CTP and CTC, BYD blade batteries, etc., is accelerating the entry of domestic battery companies into overseas supply chains, such as the Cooperation between CATL and Tesla, Ford, etc. in the US market, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech has also cut into the supply system of US car companies.
Reporters| Li Shuosun Lei, editor| Pei Jianru, Lu Xiangyong, Du Hengfeng, wang Jiaqi
Proofreader | Sun Zhicheng
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