Tesla deliveries for six consecutive quarters record deliveries this year or will exceed 1.5 million units

In 2021, tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivered a perfect answer to 936,000 deliveries while global automakers were hampered by chip shortages. What else can stop Tesla from moving forward?

Tesla delivered 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter, well above analysts' forecast of 263,026, the data showed. This is the sixth consecutive quarter of Tesla's record deliveries!

Tesla's deliveries in October-December increased by about 70% from the same period a year ago, and nearly 30% higher than the record deliveries in the previous quarter!

On an annual basis, Tesla's 2021 deliveries increased by 87 percent from the previous year to 936,172 units, nearly doubling deliveries.

Target 1.5 million vehicles by 2022?

Tesla's deliveries in 2021 are approaching the 1 million mark, so what will Be Tesla's target deliveries in 2022?

Recall that musk said last October that Tesla will be able to maintain an annual growth rate of more than 50% for a long time, which is scorned by many media and competitors." Now Musk has not only fulfilled his original promise, but also behaved even more amazingly.

With the current 936,000 units, Tesla's deliveries would reach 1.4 million if it grows by another 50 percent in 2022; if we look at last year's 87 percent growth rate, it will reach a terrifying 1.75 million units.

Given current production and upcoming new capacity, 1.4 million units is a safe bet, as long as demand remains strong in the new year. And, this year Tesla will also have two factories in production: Tesla Giga Austin in Texas and Tesla Giga Berlin in Grünheide, near Berlin, Germany.

If the two new plants add 300,000 units together, plus the california and Shanghai plants, Tesla's full-year deliveries in 2022 may exceed 1.5 million.

Although there is still a long way to go before the delivery of eight or nine million units from traditional car manufacturers such as Volkswagen and Toyota, Tesla is already approaching very quickly, and Weilai Automobile (NYSE:NIO), Xiaopeng Motors (NYSE:XPEV) and Ideal Automobile (NASDAQ:LI) are no longer an order of magnitude to create new forces and Tesla.

Premiums have risen

On December 27, the Shanghai Insurance Exchange officially launched the new energy vehicle insurance trading platform, and the first batch of new energy vehicle exclusive insurance products of 12 property insurance companies were listed. Since then, all new energy vehicles will be insured by exclusive commercial insurance clauses, and new energy vehicles will officially enter the era of exclusive insurance.

Subsequently, the premium of new energy vehicles ushered in a wave of rise, Tesla is still the first to bear the brunt, many car owners reported that it has risen by more than 80% compared with previous years. The data displayed on Tesla's official website shows that the model3 P's official website premium has increased by tens of thousands of yuan more than in the past, and the increase from 8,000 to 18,000 is more than doubled.

Many car owners said that buying new energy vehicles is to save fuel costs, but the remaining fuel costs throughout the year are subsidized by insurance, and the second-hand residual value of new energy vehicles is generally inferior to that of fuel vehicles, and the sharp rise in premiums will undoubtedly dissuade some potential consumers.

Tesla launches insurance business

I have to admire Musk's foresight. At the 2021 annual general meeting of shareholders, Tesla announced that it will launch an insurance business.

The car insurance is designed according to the use time of the vehicle, mileage, driver habits and other information, and gives personalized pricing for different car owners of the new car insurance products. That is to say, although the owners are all the same car, the insurance coverage and price may be very different.

At the moment when the Internet of Vehicles technology is gradually popularized, car manufacturers have the right to speak about hardware, and they obviously have a stronger advantage in forming a Car Networking operation platform than traditional insurance companies, and are more likely to play a leading role. In this case, car manufacturers do insurance, which is regarded as a major "threat" to the car insurance industry.

According to conservative estimates, Tesla's global ownership will exceed 20 million units in 2030, if Tesla's insurance product coverage can reach 70%, the average annual premium per vehicle is 4800 yuan, then the car insurance business can achieve revenue of 67.2 billion yuan.

Musk also said he is very optimistic about the auto insurance business, and he expects Tesla's insurance valuation to reach 30% to 40% of Tesla's auto business in the future. Based on Tesla's current valuation of $1.2 trillion, the ideal valuation of Tesla's insurance business can reach about $480 billion, which is much higher than the valuation of most insurance companies in China.

Stock price performance

On Monday, Tesla opened 8% higher, then opened higher, and finally closed up 13.53%, ushering in the opening of 2022.

Tesla daily chart, source: Investing.com

Throughout 2021, Tesla's performance has been very impressive, rising nearly 50% last year, reaching an all-time high of $1243.49 on November 4. Monday's closing price was $1199.78, just one step away from an all-time high. Tesla's current market value is $1.2 trillion, the price-earnings ratio is 347.43 times, and the earnings per share are $3.45, although the price-to-earnings ratio is still high, but I believe Tesla will soon reach a new high.

However, it is worth noting that Musk has taken advantage of the rise in stock prices to significantly reduce his holdings in Tesla stock, and he has also issued a warning that he predicts that the next recession will come as early as this spring, no later than 2023. What do you think about that?

Author: Pan Yiheng