IAUTO
Speed Depth Attitude
Introduction |
2022/01/03
The ultimate fate of weak car companies is clearly visible.
Reporter 丨 Li Sijia
Responsible editor 丨 Yang Jing
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
In 2019, Chongqing Lifan changed its name to Ideal Manufacturing. This weak position car brand, which is difficult to brush out the sense of existence, ushered in its most glorious moment when "OEM" and "selling production qualifications".
In the second half of the same year, the national emission standards of China VI began to be officially implemented nationwide. Compared with the China V emission standards, the China VI emission standards are more stringent in terms of emission restrictions, and are called the most stringent standards in the industry so far. For many car companies, especially those with too many National V models, the upgrading of emission standards will bring pressure to them, and the polarization of the market will be further intensified.
This year, the automotive industry is struggling to crawl in the context of chip shortage, and car companies are "difficult to cook without rice" due to the lack of cores. From poor sales to the impact of the epidemic, from policy knocks to chip problems, the entire automotive industry is caught in the good memories of three years ago and the expectation of the future market. In particular, those weak car companies have gradually withdrawn from the stage under the blow of many points in the past few years, becoming a grain of dust in the history of the development of the automobile industry, and those who have not yet withdrawn are mostly in danger and precarious.
It can be said that they have a lot of fate.
Weak car companies are "targeted"
As a player in the auto market, weak car companies have been blown to the ground in an industrial storm, falling to pieces, but...
Yes, the "but" is used here, that is, the weak car companies are left behind or even overturned in round after round of market competition, and there is no chance of re-racing, most of them are still in their own problems, so that they do not have too many ways to deal with the waves.
Like Chongqing Lifan, relying on the production and sales of automobiles, motorcycles and engines to develop one-stop, it has been selected as one of the top 500 Chinese enterprises several times, becoming a shining star in the history of the development of Chongqing and even independent brands.
However, with the development of the times and the change of technology, Lifan is excessively addicted to the glory moments of the past, forgetting product research and development and corporate planning, or not having the ability and resources to carry out product research and development. In the end, it can only run for debt in the potential energy of the automobile industry, and even sell production qualifications, becoming a foundry for making wedding clothes for others.
We know that 30 years ago, Yin Mingshan, who founded the Chongqing Hongda Vehicle Parts Research Institute, invested in technology development and led the staff to create two "China Firsts" at that time: the first 100 cc 4-stroke engine in the country, and the first 100 cc electric start engine in China.
In the following eight years, from the production of engines to the development of independent brands, "Lifan Motorcycle" produced and sold 1.84 million engines and sales revenue of 3.85 billion yuan, surpassing Brands such as Jialing and Jianshe, and its production and sales were once the first in the country.
Then, with the introduction of the policy of restricting motorcycles and banning motorcycles in various places, motorcycle sales have declined rapidly, and the industry dividend of "motorcycle sales" has disappeared, which is the reality that Lifan Motorcycle has to face.
Lifan also knew the difficulty of building a car, so the leader Yin Mingshan decided to take the imitation route. Lifan has successively launched the Lifan 320 imitating bmw MINI, imitating the BMW 3 Series Lifan 620, imitating the Ford S-Max Xuanlang, imitating the Toyota Highlander Lifan X80 and other models, with the least cost and shortcut while harvesting consumers' wallets, while challenging consumer patience.
However, we look back at Geely Automobile, which started with motorcycles, but it is constantly racing to seize the market segment, and has acquired 100% of the shares of Volvo for a sky-high price of 1.8 billion US dollars, becoming a dark horse of domestic car brands. In addition, including the Great Wall and BYD, they are using similar methods to seek changes and take their own paths.
Even in the face of the switching of emission standards and the shortage of chips, due to the leading technology and orderly brand planning, they have turned their hands into clouds and rain. Lifan, which still imitates the old road, began to fall behind, there was no amazing product, lack of core technology, and sales and profits both declined. Qu finally dispersed, and Lifan Automobile also became an ideal manufacturing.
Once extremely popular, now lonely exit, Chongqing Lifan is just the epitome of the development of a number of weak brands in the Chinese market, as well as like Zotye, Byton, Hanteng, Bisu, Phantom Speed, etc., they appear in the market at a time of extremely high tolerance, lost in the torrent of the times, lonely in the competition of natural choices, and then become meteors, become ephemerals, become cannon fodder, become jokes.
It is as if the times have failed them, but they have failed the times!
Why someone can live well
Over the years, some have fallen into the abyss of the "three major pieces" of engine, gearbox and chassis, tasted the bitter fruit of reverse research and development, and some people have fallen into the dilemma of the three electrical systems of batteries, motors, and electronic controls, and planted backward technology. They enjoy the benefits of shortcuts, eating and waiting for death; while accepting the market's cleansing, flesh and blood blurred.
Today, the big stride of the automotive industry from the fuel age to the electric age has raised its front foot, but many companies (mostly weak car companies) have been taking the speculative tricks of the fuel car era, but they have only delusionally "overtaken in curves" and extended their hands from the three major pieces of the fuel car to the three electric vehicle systems.
Sure enough, the devil came wave after wave.
According to statistics, as of 2017, 16 new enterprises in the Chinese market have obtained the qualification of the National Development and Reform Commission; the total number of new vehicle projects invested in the country has reached 91, and 21 provinces have launched new energy vehicle projects, with an investment scale of 528.3 billion yuan; all kinds of car companies have disclosed the production capacity planning of new energy vehicles, which will exceed 20 million units by 2020.
Now that four years are at a glance, the sales of new energy models in 2021 are only expected to be more than 3 million, far less than 20 million, so where does the capacity gap generated by it appear? The problems of the new energy automobile industry can be seen at a glance.
Looking back at the Guangzhou Auto Show just recently, in addition to the high-end new energy independent brands of traditional car companies and the joint venture brands of electrification transformation, the booths of new car-making forces are only left with Gaohe, Weima, Xiaopeng, Hechuang, Weilai, Zero Run, Ideal, etc., and the contrast with the lively scene of a few years ago is too strong. The reason is not difficult to understand: survival is a problem, naturally there is no money to burn at the car show.
As for the car companies that failed to participate in the exhibition, the first to bear the brunt of it is naturally the new forces of car-making, Bo County, Future, Green Chi, Ranger, Sailin, Singularity, Min An, Tianmei... Either dead or dying.
Under the industry's big test, after the boom receded, naked swimmers appeared one after another.
And what is it that really keeps them out of the convention center, the sales table, the market? On the surface, it is dead in the break of the capital chain, it is the suppression of "big factories", and it is the ruthless abandonment of consumers, and the real reason behind it is the lack of strength, lack of innovation, and lack of research and development capabilities. If a company does not have these, it is doomed not to last long.
There's nothing wrong with a tough market, but why do some people live well?
Decades ago, the technology tide of the three major pieces of fuel vehicles, we need not say; a few years ago, the new forces of car-making mushroomed like a mushroom, and we will no longer say it, but take the recent chip shortage of "black swan event".
The chip shortage seems to panic the entire automotive industry. But even in this context, there are some car companies that have not shown too much concern in the face of chip shortages, and BYD is one of the few such beings.
Why is BYD not affected in this wave of chip shortages that affect the whole industry? The reason is actually very simple, that is, BYD can produce car-grade chips itself. That is to say, BYD can not only realize the research and development of automotive chips, but also realize chip manufacturing, so it is not easy to be stuck in the neck.
In fact, BYD began to create a chip research and development team in 2003, and acquired Ningbo Zhongwei Semiconductor in 2008, and split and listed in 2020, bydir Semiconductor's valuation is as high as tens of billions. Success is not achieved overnight, the building is not built in a day, it is BYD's long-term insistence on cultivation process, to have today's blossoming results.
In addition to BYD, there are also systems like BMW, Toyota, SAIC, etc. that have their own technical reserves, or brand planning, or have unique chip production and supply systems for a long time... These proactive changes, innovations, R&D and preparation make it easier for them to survive difficult times and even have a good time in difficult days.
Ab surface that is choked in the throat
Of course, chip research and development and manufacturing is a more difficult cause, such as Volkswagen, GM, etc. are also trapped in the chip shortage in 2021. Therefore, if the chip is simply regarded as a condition for whether the car company has core competitiveness, it is not objective enough.
The reason why we take the performance of BYD, Toyota, BMW and other companies when they suffer from the impact of chip shortage as an example, what we want to express more is that car companies should take the key technologies and key processes in their own hands! This is an important ability on how to get rid of the curse of the "big factory".
For BYD, not only chips, many core components and technologies of automobiles are basically in their own hands, such as electric vehicle batteries, motors, electronic controls, BYD have the ability to be self-sufficient. Even in the core components of other cars, BYD is also fully prepared.
The reason lies in the active pursuit of R&D innovation and the strategic layout of the brand.
Very early on, BYD founded the Fordy supplier enterprise, which basically covers all the core components needed for an electric vehicle, including BYD's blade battery, IGBT chip, etc., so now BYD can stand alone in the big environment of chip shortage, layout in advance, and realize the self-development and self-production of core technologies and components, which is a very important reason. Therefore, as the tide of domestic independent brand closure is coming to an end, BYD can become one of the few brands that have survived, and with the vigorous development of domestic new energy vehicles, BYD has also earned enough eyeballs in this area.
Similarly, in connection with the previous switch of China VI emission standards, it also leaves a buffer period, which is a huge benefit for vehicle companies, dealers and parts companies, giving a certain amount of time to digest The National V models. However, for weak car companies, they have not been updated in a timely and effective manner in technology, and when the policy is finalized, they can only withdraw from the automobile market with the smoke of the National V emission standards.
Further ahead, a group of reverse research and development enterprises represented by a Certain Thai brand famous for "Leather Ruler Department" have to eat and drink in the highly tolerant SUV Red Sea. They know that the positive research and development requires too much money, and the model development is not necessarily recognized by the market, so it is short-sighted and profit-oriented, thus abandoning positive research and development. But when the market began to decline, when there were more and more better products, when consumers saw more and more clearly, these brands that lacked independent core technology were defeated, and the way they fell was the same as the neck of today's chip card.
At that time, those who chose the more difficult but more correct path also took the initiative to change again in today's era of chip shortage, playing a full-stack self-research, which was once very useful long-term ism, and will surely make them successful in the next era.
On the other hand, many small and micro enterprises seem to have been in a weak position, discriminated against by financial institutions, difficult to finance, broken capital chain, difficult to seek sales, difficult to expand channels, and even can only become "big factories" of the foundry and the fate of being acquired; but on the one hand, they have no technology and no resources, nor do they take the initiative to change to obtain the core power of the enterprise demand.
We don't have to look at this knockout game with pessimism or even pity, but we can understand this knockout game as an invisible hand, a hand that is pushing the market cleansing. Those who survive will tell the latecomers: only by taking the initiative to change and relying on the strength of scientific and technological research and development can we better transfer our own will, on a global scale, combined with our own controllable and available resources, relying on hard nuclear strength to build our own cars, and even lead an era.
The inevitable end of the speculators is to withdraw from the stage, they are self-inflicted.
This article is excerpted from the cover story of the November and December issues of Automobile Commune magazine
| Li Sijia |
Leader of the anti-parsley alliance and long-time occupier of the first floor of the commune