Wen | and Ling
The future can be expected! Happy New Year, friends!
This is the first tweet you've seen in Big Car Observation in 2022.
What year will 2022 be?
This is the third year after the epidemic, the Year of the Beijing Winter Olympics, the 2022 Beijing Auto Show in the spring, as well as the Summer Asian Games in Hangzhou and the Summer World University Games in Chengdu... There is also the end of the Year-end World Cup in Qatar. In general, the adrenaline-secreted happy molecules in the air of the sports year should add some stability factors to the uncertain world economy in 2022.
As is customary, I went through the major economic weekly magazines, hoping to find some expert opinions from them and give some inspiration to the beginning of the new year. In the end, I found that for the 2022 under our feet, no one dared to predict at will, and "many uncertainties" are now and future. Experts suggest that we should consider things from the "great changes that have not been encountered in a hundred years" and think and discuss the development of China's economy this year under the new framework of "cross-cyclical adjustment". I think personal development, too.
"No matter how big or small, every choice is an active change, and we are looking forward to a bitter end." Just like every new shoot that breaks the ground, it carries the stubbornness that penetrates time. "At this time, if you re-read Southern Weekend's 2022 New Year's message again, you will have empathy.
Standing at the crossroads of a major change that has not been encountered in a hundred years, what choice do you make? Is it an active choice, or is it a matter of going with the flow? The end result may be a world of difference. Wu Xiaobo's first prediction of 2022 in his New Year's Eve speech was the "K-type era" and the normality of the fight against the epidemic. My simple and crude understanding is that K, this English letter seems to converge after a point, an infinite upward, an infinite downward, and finally out.
The legend shows K-type recovery
The "K-era" is very cruel, the "K-era" is an era of shuffling, but it also means bringing a lot of new possibilities, Wu Xiaobo said.
After several years of "barbaric growth" in China's auto industry, especially in new energy and intelligent transformation, it is estimated that 2022 will also enter an era of reshuffle. Only the "paranoid" can stay and continue the game.
Robin Li said at the 2021 Baidu AI Developer Conference that intelligent transportation will be a major change that will affect the next 10-40 years, so that China's first-tier cities will no longer need to limit purchases and traffic within 5 years, and basically solve the problem of congestion within 10 years.
In Robin Li's view, intelligent transportation can solve three major problems: First, reduce road safety accidents by 90%. Second, the system solves the congestion problem. Third, autonomous driving and intelligent transportation can help reduce carbon emissions. These are all parts that can be expected in the future, and Baidu is just one of the representatives.
Just as important as smart transportation is carbon neutrality. The industry generally believes that 2021 is the first year of carbon neutrality, and carbon neutrality will be a hot topic in the next decade. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investment in new energy is currently about $2 trillion a year, accounting for 2.5% of global GDP.
If the world is to become carbon neutral around 2050, investment in related new energy sources will increase to $5 trillion by 2030, or 4.5% of GDP. In addition to the annual trillion-level new energy investment itself, many other trillion-level application scenarios are also emerging. In addition to the construction of new energy vehicles and related charging piles that everyone is familiar with, UHV transmission lines, large-scale energy storage facilities, etc., this is a huge market.
If the above are all parts that can be expected in the future, then the daily life still depends on the daily small luck to moisturize. From January 1, 2022, the new version of the "Provisions on the Responsibility for Repair and Replacement of Household Automobile Products" (hereinafter referred to as the "Three Guarantees" Policy) will be officially implemented.
Compared with the old "three guarantees" policy, the new version of the "three guarantees" has 16 major changes. Among them, you must remember at least two points: First, the new version of the "three guarantees" regulations also specially added the provisions for returning and replacing cars within 7 days due to quality problems. And the new version of the regulations also for 7 days of return and replacement, clarified that the "three guarantees" effective according to the actual delivery date of the vehicle calculated time. In this way, you can avoid a lot of disputes, especially now that it is difficult to lift the car.
Second, the power battery and the driving drive motor have joined the "three guarantees", that is to say, electric vehicles and pickup trucks have appeared in the "three guarantees" range for the first time.
In a word, the new "three guarantees" policy pays more, the package is more complete, and the penalty is heavier, properly on the side of consumers.
In addition, the new year's auto related policies also include the release of the "Motor Vehicle Operation Safety Technical Conditions" National Standard No. 2 Amendment Order, requiring that from January 1, 2022, newly produced passenger cars should be equipped with a "car black box" EDR system, that is, a driving event recorder. The degree of intelligence of the car is getting higher and higher, when operating functions such as assisted driving, after the mandatory installation of the black box, it can play a case in the accident identification, and it can be distinguished whether it is a driving operation problem or a car problem, which is very beneficial for users and car companies.
After the implementation of this new regulation, newly produced vehicles in 2022 must be installed between EDR (black box) equipment and DVR (driving recorder) equipment. As far as I know, many of the models previously sold have been installed.
In addition, the national recommended standard of "Automobile Driving Automation Classification" will also be officially implemented from 2022. The hot autopilot has formal regulations in place, which is one step closer to large-scale use.
Finally, we must talk about the chip problem that everyone cares about.
According to data from the China Automotive Chip Industry Alliance, it is expected that the use of fuel vehicle chips in China will reach 934 per vehicle in 2022, and the average number of chips for new energy vehicles will reach 1459, with an average annual compound growth rate of more than 10%.
At the same time, another set of data: in 2021, China's new energy vehicle production and sales easily exceeded 3 million units, and the cumulative sales penetration rate increased to 12.7%; by the end of 2022, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate will exceed 35%. The target issued by the national ministry is to strive for close to 20% by 2025, but the target has been reached four years ahead of schedule. That is to say, in 2022, the new energy vehicle market will usher in a more rapid development, and the demand for chips is very large.
When will the lack of cores be solved? No one dares to make wild predictions. However, it is well documented that even if major chip manufacturers emphasize that the situation of chip shortage/shortage of supply will continue for a period of time until the end of 2022 or even 2023, the gap between supply and demand will continue to converge in 2022.
For example, at present, the capacity utilization rate of chip manufacturers in Malaysia has returned to 100%, and the shipments of OEMs are gradually improving. More importantly, in the face of this "core shortage", starting from 2021, many Chinese companies will invest in automotive chips, and it is expected that within the next three years, we will be able to solve the problem ourselves. It seems that the lack of core also has a good side.
It is said that this is the third year that "Everyone Car Observation" has accompanied everyone. With today's nutritious breakfast given to everyone by the sun at 7 o'clock in the morning every day, it will be more delicate and nutritious in 2022. Pay attention to industry dynamics, new cars, new technologies, and pay more attention to every living participant behind the era of great changes that have not been encountered in a hundred years.
I look forward to your likes and messages. Let's witness the great times together!