Wen 丨 Guo Xiaoxing Editor 丨 Du Hai
Source 丨Zhengjingshe(ID:zhengjingshe)
The "decentralized" application scenario that was once the most optimistic was announced after several twists and turns.
The sign is that on December 28, 2021, Mutual Treasure issued a notice that it will cease operations at 24:00 on January 28, 2022.
3 years ago, blockchain became a hot topic in the technology circle, and the technical vocabulary of "decentralization" also successfully "broke the circle", from the venture capital circle all the way to the streets, and its application scenarios became the focus of most people's discussion after dinner. However, this scenario is more reduced to the packaging of virtual digital coins, and it is rarely really close to life.
At that time, Mutual Treasure was the forerunner of the grounding. Its failure today does not mean the end of the "decentralized" business exploration, but rather indicates that it will definitely change the industry in a certain field.
Analysts from "Zhengjing Society" found that this new change has started from new energy car insurance.
1
Breaking the circle at birth
On October 16, 2018, Mutual Protection (later renamed "Mutual Treasure") was launched. With the innovative model of "one person is sick, everyone pays", it attracted 10 million users in 7 days on the line, which shocked the entire insurance circle for a time.
Why did it shock the insurance community? To answer this question, you must first understand the role of insurance companies.
For example, suppose there are 200 people in a group, in order to cope with the high cost of treatment that future cancer may bring, so they agree that if someone has cancer in the future, the others will give him 1,000 yuan each, or a total of 199,000 yuan, to help him through the difficulties.
This 1,000 yuan has little impact on other normal people, but for people who are sick, it is a tower of sand and charcoal in the snow. Such a good idea, of course everyone agreed.
But the question is, what if someone is sick and one of the remaining 199 people doesn't pay? Go to court to fight a lawsuit? For 1,000 bucks it seems a bit worthless. "Draw a circle and curse him"? That's the story in the cartoon.
Therefore, there is a problem of credit not being passed here. How to solve it?
At this time, the insurance company came and said: "I am an insurance company, please believe me, I have a license, and I have paid a sum of money in the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, I can't run, now I have designed a plan, each of you give me a little money, once I get cancer, I will pay you a lot of money." ”
Probably soon, millions of people will pay their premiums.
As you probably know, the person who is really unlucky enough to get cancer actually gets paid out of the pockets of another 999,999 people. Do these 1 million people need to get to know each other? Do they need to worry that someone will run away if they don't keep their word?
There is no need, the insurance company will "insurance" and "claims" these two links apart, become the largest credit center in the middle.
So, what about mutual insurance? With the support of Alipay's massive data, the attempt of "decentralization" has begun. It should be noted that the "decentralization" here is not that there is no center, but that it weakens the dependence on the original largest credit center.
As far as the analysts of the "Zhengjing Society" know, the model of mutual insurance has returned to the essence of insurance. Here, the role of credit centers is weakened and management costs are greatly reduced. If you need to make a claim, everyone has to pay money, and then give the platform an 8% management fee as a variety of expenses for the claims adjuster. What if no one gets sick? Everyone was happy, and there was no cost.
But what if someone doesn't pay for it? It doesn't matter, a lot of your data is on the Alipay platform, once you don't follow the rules, the credit will be damaged, and everyone will dare not cooperate with you in the future. Who would dare to take such a big risk?
Therefore, when the platform has big data, decentralized business can get rid of the "credit center" that relies on social statistics, and the "decentralized" application scenario of mutual insurance directly challenges the traditional "credit center" - insurance companies.
2
The main failure is in operation
Since Mutual Treasure is so "advanced", why did it fail in the end?
There are many reasons for failure, but in essence, it does not follow the principles of insurance.
All insurance products have two most basic operating principles, one is called segmentation and the other is called aggregation.
In my case, my parents and I are loyal users of Mutual Treasure. I'm 29 years old, my parents are 53 years old, and we're in the same mutual aid group, and we pay the same money every instalment. The question is, do you think that people in my age group have a high probability of developing a major disease, or do people in my parents' age group have a high probability of having a major disease?
Of course, the older the person, the greater the probability of serious illness. That is to say, in this circle, the higher the proportion of older people, the greater the probability and number of people who will be sick, for me, is not it "taken advantage"?
Yes, it is "taking advantage". On December 31, 2021, I checked the amount of each period in the past 3 years, from the initial 0.01 yuan / period, to the latest period of 7.02 yuan / period, the amount increased by more than 700 times. Oh my God, do you dare to continue to participate?
So what does normal insurance do? Quite simply, segmentation. If you think about your insurance experience, do you have to fill in personal information, declare your health status and certain lifestyle habits (such as whether you smoke or not) ? After filling it out, the system will tell you if you can apply for insurance and the amount of insurance.
If you are careful, you will notice that the premiums paid by people of different ages, different genders, and different health conditions are not the same, even if they are the same age and the same health, but the wages paid are different depending on the gender. Why is that?
This is called segmentation. The actuaries of the insurance company have introduced various variables, constructed various models, calculated the probability of people falling ill in different situations, and then the system will group the insured according to each person's situation, and you will share the risk with the same group of people, which avoids the situation of "being taken advantage of", and also allows the premium to reach the optimal insurance price as much as possible.
In order to ensure that there are enough people in your group to minimize the losses borne after illness, the insurance company will desperately sell the product and let more people join, which is the sum.
Therefore, segmentation and aggregation are not only the most basic operating principles, but also a way to enhance product competition.
Go back and look at each other again. The data tells me that the number of mutual treasures has gone from the highest 300 million people participating in the apportionment, to the latest issue, only 74.954 million people participated, if it is you, will you go or stay?
Although Mutual Treasure has always said that it is not insurance, but a mutual aid organization. But in essence, it's about doing insurance. The essence of insurance is homogeneous risk sharing, so if you do not comply with the most basic operating principles, you will only fail in the end.
3
Tesla and BYD entered the market
When mutual treasure falls, does the "decentralized" scene fail?
Of course not. Analysts at The Serious Society believe that the future of business must be in the direction of "decentralization", and latecomers have actually entered the market.
People who have a car have paid car insurance, if you and your friends are buying the same car type of car on the same day, do you pay the same insurance fee every year? Absolutely.
Here's the problem, let's say you rarely drive and then go out on weekends to play. And your friend has become an online ride-hailing driver, if you still pay the same premium, do you think it is fair? It's not fair.
So how do you buy it? It is not fair to buy according to the years, after all, everyone drives differently in a year, even if the number of times is the same, the length of driving time and the number of kilometers are also different. How can this be done? Buy by kilometer, drive more and pay more premiums, and drive less to pay less.
There is an insurance company in the UK called InsuretheBox. If you buy its own insurance, it will install an OBD device (on-board diagnostic system) in your car to detect your driving data, including how many kilometers you have driven. InsuretheBox will then sell insurance based on your driving history.
Is it necessarily reasonable to pay premiums by kilometer? Some people have bad driving habits, cross the road easily forget to hit the turn signal, and even hit the wrong one, which should also pay more money, right? Yes, driving habits should also be used as a pricing factor to make sense.
This is the big data-enabled UBI car insurance. There is an insurance company in the United States called Progressive, which has long begun to price per kilometer, and its pricing is based on three data:
1, usually maintained from the distance in front of the car, this data can be recorded with vehicle radar and OBD equipment;
2, the number of times to step on the emergency brakes every month, people who often step on the emergency brakes must often encounter dangerous situations;
3, the number of times to drive at 4 a.m. every month, because this is the most tired time of the day, this time driving, easy to have traffic accidents.
Progressive uses these three data to differentiate the pricing of each person's car insurance.
In 2020, when the stock price and sales market of electric vehicles are in full swing, Tesla announced that it will carry out insurance business and will carry out a "car + insurance" service model in China. In October 2021, BYD also began to get involved in the insurance agency business.
You may ask, "Is it bad for your car companies to make cars and sell cars?" Why do you still need insurance? "Because, the car insurance purchased by domestic new energy car owners is still priced according to the social statistics of traditional fuel vehicles."
How many traffic accidents occur in Beijing every year? What is the probability of cancer in people over the age of 60? These are social statistics. No matter how good the actuary, based on social statistics, can not calculate the optimal insurance pricing for the owners of new energy vehicles.
At this stage, the premium of new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional oil vehicles. Just on December 27, some netizens posted that the insurance premium of a certain Tesla car rose from 8278 yuan on the 23rd to 14902 yuan on the 27th, an increase of 80% year-on-year.
However, the insurance rate and claim rate of new energy vehicles are far lower than those of fuel vehicles, if you are a new energy vehicle owner, are you willing to be "taken advantage"?
Definitely not. However, the current insurance companies can not get more detailed data, only car companies are most likely to enter the market to change, so Tesla entered, BYD also followed.
Therefore, the mutual treasure has stopped, and it is both a memorial to the game-breaker and a tribute to the loser.
The trend of "decentralized" business does not end with a failure of an exploration, but will inevitably change the industry again in a certain field. And this new change has begun with car insurance. 【Produced by "Zhengjing Society"】
Editor-in-charge | Tang Weiping| Du Hai Proofreader | Ranran
Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are for reference only and should not be used as investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market
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