The market is saturated, innovation is weak, and the smartphone market has nothing to look forward to. These negative perceptions surrounding the smartphone market may be rewritten by folding machine players in the near future.
Especially when Apple is sitting on the high-end champion and has not yet cut into the folding mobile phone market, folding mobile phones do show signs of becoming a ticket for domestic Android manufacturers to seize the high-end market.
On December 15, OPPO officially released its first mass-produced folding screen mobile phone, OPPO Find N, with a starting price of 7699 yuan to promote the folding mobile phone "from early to common use". In order to realize its vision of "the popularization of folding screen mobile phones", Samsung brought the first folding phone under $1,000 in August - galaxy Z Flip3.
The pricing strategy of oppo folding machine is obviously taking over the baton of Samsung and helping folding mobile phones out of the niche market. At the same time, OPPO released its first folding machine in the third year of the folding machine concept, which was regarded as the right time. Previously, Samsung and Huawei have profited from folding machines, and now the new product release has ushered in another small peak, along with a more well-prepared supply chain, which is releasing good news for this market.
Samsung took the lead in bargaining
Samsung is currently firmly ranked as the world's folding mobile phone champion. According to research institute DSCC, Samsung's market share in the global folding market will be as high as 87% in 2020.
In August, Samsung released its third-fold phones, the Galaxy Z Fold3 and Z Flip3, priced at $1,799.99 (about 12,000 yuan) and $999.99 (6,460 yuan), respectively. As the first folding phone under $1,000, Flip3 echoes the "popularization of folding screen mobile phones" advocated by Lu Taiwen, head of Samsung's mobile phone department.
The Galaxy Z Fold3 and Z Flip3 have caused a strong response in the market. On October 6, Samsung announced that the combined sales of the two phones exceeded 1 million units in just over a month after they were listed. Some institutions predict that the annual sales of Samsung folding screen mobile phones may reach 9 million units.
In contrast, the previous two years of dismal sales. Samsung's first-generation folding screen phone, the Galaxy Fold, launched in 2019 and sold only 500,000 units worldwide. The second generation of foldable devices, the Galaxy Z Fold2 and Galaxy Z Flip, launched last year, sold about 1.5 million units worldwide.
Samsung currently has high hopes for folding mobile phones, and the market quickly spread the expansion dynamics. At the end of August, industry news said that Samsung, a panel manufacturer owned by Samsung, will increase the annual production capacity of folding screen smartphones from 17 million to 25 million, including 10 million Z Folds and 15 million Z Flips.
It should not be overlooked that Huawei, which plays a bellwether in the domestic market. He Gang, COO of Huawei's consumer business, said that as of the third quarter of 2021, Huawei's folding mobile phone shipments in China increased by 200% year-on-year, and achieved the first result in folding mobile phone shipments in China.
Recently, it has been reported that since the launch of MateX, the total shipment of Huawei's folding screen project is about 2 million units. In the first half of this year, the hardware profit of Huawei's folding screen mobile phones has approached 10 billion yuan.
The voices of the smartphone market and the folding machine form have been heard endlessly, but Samsung and Huawei are using profits and further investment to convey confidence to the market, and each has a unique advantage to ripen this market.
Product maturity and price are the two major points of view of the penetration rate of folding mobile phones. In terms of durability, product iterations to this day, there are fewer heard of product problems, and price has become an important observation point. Samsung took the lead in bargaining, and the Flip3 gave the industry hope for killer products. Compared with Samsung, which has a one-stop production line, Huawei needs to promote the maturity of the supply chain, which will also help the product price to fall.
Research institutions are optimistic about the folding mobile phone market. Strategy Analytics believes that the folding market size is about 6.5 million units this year. Global sales will reach 13 million units in 2022 and 37 million units in 2023, respectively, and sales are expected to exceed 100 million units by 2025. TrendForce Expects Folding Phone Penetration to Exceed 1% in 2022 and Challenge 4% in 2024, compared to just 0.15% in 2020.
The window period opens, and the folding new products meet the small peak
At the folding mobile phone conference on December 15, Oppo senior vice president and chief product officer Liu Zuohu said: I hope to promote the folding screen mobile phone from early to common use. Overall, OPPO achieves this goal with two dimensions: product and pricing.
OPPO Find N is equipped with the Qualcomm Snapdragon 888 mobile platform and adopts the form of in-folding. The outer screen uses a 5.49-inch, 18:9 ratio OLED screen, while the inner screen is a 7.1-inch, 8.4:9 ratio, Samsung E5 material, supports 120Hz high brush and LTPO adaptive refresh rate, and the cover is UTG ultra-thin flexible glass. According to reports, the inner screen is produced by Samsung Display, and the outer screen is supplied by BOE.
Liu Zuohu said that OPPO has made a breakthrough in solving the problems of the folding screen industry such as creases and durability. With self-developed hinges, OPPO Find N enables a new interactive experience with seamless concealed folding and free hover from 50° to 120°.
In terms of price, OPPO launched an 8GB + 256GB version priced at 7699 yuan and a 12GB + 512 GB version priced at 8999 yuan. Liu Zuohu pointed out that the choice of this pricing is to reduce the threshold for the use of folding screens. After the supply chain is formed, it can also drive a virtuous circle of the entire industry.
After four years of research and development, six versions, OPPO's first folding mobile phone mass production product was launched at the time when the market entered a new stage. With the support of Samsung, Huawei and Motorola, the concept of folding mobile phones has landed since 2019. In 2020, Samsung and Huawei will update their products. Entering 2021, the price of folding mobile phones began to approach high-end flagships, and consumer acceptance increased.
In addition to Oppo, Huawei Xiaomi is iteratively folding mobile phones, honor and vivo as new players to enter the game. The most accurate news comes from Huawei, which recently announced that the flagship mobile phone of the P50 Pocket folding screen will be released on December 23. There is news that Huawei's new folding machine is priced at a close price, shipments have increased significantly, and it is facing off with the Galaxy Z Flip3.
According to the breaking news, Honor recently applied for the names of two new models in Europe, namely: "Magic Fold" and "Magic Wing". These two new models may correspond to the upper and lower folding and the left and right folding versions respectively. There are also breaking news that the new machine code name of the Honor left and right fold is "Magic X", and its shape may be similar to the Huawei Mate X2. Vivo, the market rumors that it will launch a new folding screen machine in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of 2022.
It is worth mentioning that the market has previously focused on observing the exchanges between Huawei and Samsung in this field, and Samsung's previous release of the original folding machine has been interpreted as a confrontation with Huawei. The international situation is changing, waiting until Samsung releases the third generation of folding machines, which is considered to be an action against xiaomis plagued by chipless supply.
The opportunity and suspense of the folding machine supply chain
Folding mobile phone product forms further into the market, will also help related parts manufacturers to stand on the wind. According to CITIC Securities, the main process change directions in the folding screen mobile phone industry chain involve foldable AMOLED flexible screens, hinges, covers, polarizers, OCA glue, FPC, etc.
At present, the opportunities for AMOLED flexible screens and covers are relatively clear, and there is close interaction with terminal manufacturers.
The foldable AMOLED flexible screen provides maximum cost increase. According to data previously released by Korean media, the price of foldable mobile phone panels is 150 to 250 US dollars, which is higher than the price of general flexible organic light-emitting diode (OLED) panels (80 US dollars). And compared with non-folding mobile phones, the mobile phone area of folding screen mobile phones increased by more than 50%. In this field, mainland manufacturers BOE, Huaxing Optoelectronics, Visionox, Shentianma and so on have all been laid out.
AMOLED flexible screen is also ushering in localization under the background of clear market opportunities. Huawei's MateXs and Mate X flexible folding screens are exclusively supplied by BOE and are regarded as a breakthrough in the local supply chain. In particular, it is worth mentioning that Huawei's previous layout of driven ICs is expected to be shipped to BOE, which means a deeper supply chain reserve.
Following the semiconductor cycle, OLED DDI has been out of stock for a long time. Recently, industry chain people said that OLED DDI in 2022 is likely to be in short supply, which will drag down the overall shipment of mobile phones, and may even adjust the import plan of OLED panels in 2022.
The cover glass that replaces the CPI membrane is also a more prominent link. OPPO's first folding machine is the use of UGC, which is said to make the screen have excellent bending performance and anti-fall and puncture resistance, and players such as vivo will also choose UTG. Local UTG also has room for performance, and it is reported that a Huawei folding screen mobile phone listed next year will be equipped with the UTG products of local manufacturer Kaisheng Technology for the first time.
epilogue
Samsung has stopped changing Note phone cables and hopes that the Z series can achieve sales results comparable to the Note series. In addition to capacity expansion, Samsung has also doubled the marketing expenses of folding machines to the Note series. Samsung also said that the chip supply gives priority to meeting the folding machine, which shows its emphasis on folding mobile phones.
As far as the industry as a whole is concerned, if folding mobile phones want to further increase market share, in addition to the continued evolution of product forms and the decline in prices, the market is also paying attention to when killer applications will appear. The future volume node should also consider Apple's pace. Apple analyst Guo Mingxi believes that the first Apple folding screen mobile phone will come out in 2023, and Apple is ready to increase the shipment of its first folding screen iPhone to 20 million units.
It is worth noting that the continuous shortage of wafer foundry capacity has affected the competitive situation of the 5G mobile phone market in the past year. If mobile phone manufacturers enter the folding mobile phone arena since the end of this year, they still need to pay attention to how to fully obtain parts and costs.