Investment Points:
1. The southern network has greatly improved the investment scale of the distribution network, and the intelligent distribution network is the key investment direction;
2. "Multi-energy complementary power supply system + UHVDC transmission channel", is the mainstream solution of the new power system for new energy, and UHV bidding may be launched in the first half of 2022, and UHV will start to be put into production in the second half of the year and suppliers will begin to confirm revenue;
3. Both The Southern Grid and the State Grid have quietly taken digital transformation as an important strategy to seize the commanding heights in the future;
4. The weak link in the digital transformation of the power grid is network security;
Financial Associated Press (Beijing, reporter Xu Haidong) news, new energy construction is in full swing, the construction of new power system is imminent. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the beginning of the month once again proposed to "increase the ability to consume new energy", in the view of Tang Guangfu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the power system is the core of the future energy transformation, "wind, light, water, nuclear and other energy must be converted into electric energy, energy storage, hydrogen energy also need to be converted through electric energy, the volatility and randomness of new energy power generation are bringing great challenges to the safety of the power system." ”
In March this year, the ninth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission pointed out that it is necessary to "deepen the reform of the power system and build a new power system with new energy as the main body." Industry insiders pointed out that the construction of a "new power system" requires the power system to further move towards the realization of power clean, system flexibility, system digitization, and system power electronics, which will also become the main line of investment in the A-share power sector in 2022.
Power distribution end: The accelerated access of new energy makes the intelligent distribution network a key requirement
Reconstructing the power system is a necessary requirement for the large-scale development of new energy, but new energy power generation is inherently random, volatile, and intermittent, how can the traditional power system adapt to a high proportion of new energy access?
Li Zong, a senior expert in the power grid industry and vice president of a core power equipment and control system group research institute, pointed out to the Financial Associated Press reporter that the pressure on the power grid is increasing. In the rural power grid, the whole county photovoltaic is the first factor to bear the brunt of the impact, the power grid will undertake the distribution network distributed power consumption obligations, change some physical grid frames and configuration functions, including voltage devices, cables and other devices, in addition to improving the level of intelligence, edge computing will play a greater role in intelligence. In terms of urban distribution network, electric vehicle charging piles are continuously connected to the distribution network of the power grid, which puts forward new challenges to the power supply capacity of the power grid, and the dispatch of the distribution network load of the power grid company and the flexibility of the power grid need to be greatly improved, which requires corresponding intelligent means to improve its overall response speed and power supply capacity.
Deng Yongkang, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China Southern Power Grid has planned to invest about 670 billion yuan, of which distribution network investment accounts for about 48%, while the previous distribution network investment accounted for about 40%, indicating that distribution network and distribution network intelligence have become the focus of attention. CICC's latest research report also pointed out that the functional form of the distribution network will evolve from a one-way passive network to an active network with interaction between supply and demand, and the equipment side should pay attention to the fields of primary equipment, primary and secondary fusion equipment, secondary equipment, and smart energy management. People in the power industry told the Financial Associated Press that the distribution network needs to continue to improve the large-scale application level of intelligent terminals such as primary and secondary fusion equipment and live robots. In addition, at present, there are many demonstration projects for the upgrading of the distribution network in China, such as the 220 kV Binzhou Guoji substation, which plays a demonstration role in the integration scenario of the radiated power side of the distribution network by building new infrastructure under the new power system such as photovoltaic stations, energy storage stations, and electric vehicle charging stations.
Statistics show that there are nearly 100 listed transmission and distribution electrical companies in A shares, which belong to different subdivisions such as primary equipment, primary and secondary fusion equipment, secondary equipment, and smart energy management. Since the beginning of this year, Sifang Shares (601126. SH), Beijing Cree (002350. SZ), Shuangjie Electric (300444. SZ) and other listed companies in the first three quarters of the performance show that the main business income and profit have achieved substantial growth, showing the high prosperity of the power distribution equipment industry.
Transmission terminal: UHV flexible DC becomes the focus of investment in the main network of the power grid
For the investment opportunities of the main grid of the power grid, the above-mentioned core power equipment group experts pointed out that while new energy is better consumed, it is necessary to maintain the stability of the power grid, first of all, it is necessary for the power chain to achieve a wider range of consumption, that is, UHV. "During the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, AC UHV will be accompanied by the entire flexible DC back-to-back transmission mode to build, and will bring some intelligent demand, power grid dispatching from the past to the provincial balance to the inter-provincial balance, the overall dispatch of the power grid settings and control logic will be corresponding changes."
Industry experts further pointed out that "multi-energy complementary power supply system + UHVDC transmission channel" is the mainstream solution of the new power system for new energy, and a new round of UHV project construction in China will be carried out on a large scale. According to the data, by the end of 2020, the state grid has an inter-provincial transmission capacity of 230 million kilowatts, and the proportion of clean energy transmission has reached 43%; the capacity of China Southern Power Grid to transmit electricity from west to east has exceeded 58 million kilowatts, and the proportion of clean energy transmission has exceeded 80%. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the scale and intensity of resource allocation in the power grid will be significantly enhanced, the China Electricity Federation predicts that by 2025, the scale of inter-regional and inter-provincial power flows will increase to about 370 million kilowatts, and the "China Energy and Power Development Outlook 2020" released by the State Grid Energy Research Institute predicts that the capacity of China's inter-regional transmission channels will further reach 400 million kilowatts and more than 500 million kilowatts in 2035 and 2060.
Citic Construction Investment industry analysts pointed out that under the joint drive of UHV hybrid DC, soft straight back-to-back and far-reaching offshore wind power transmission, it is expected that the total investment scale of HVDC transmission projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will exceed 400 billion yuan, of which the total market demand for converter valves, IGBTs, thyristors and other five-year markets will be 45 billion yuan, bringing sufficient flexibility to related industrial chain companies.
According to the current "14th Five-Year Plan" of the State Grid and the South Grid, the industry generally expects that there will be about 10 UHVDC lines in China from 2021 to 2025. The total cycle of a single UHV project is usually 2-2.5 years, which means that the first half of 2022 will likely start UHV tenders, and in the second half of 202, UHV will start production and suppliers will start to recognize revenue. Therefore, Guodian NARI (600406. SH), Xu Ji Electric (000400. SZ), Pinggao Electric (600312. SH), Perry Shares (300831. SZ) and other performances deserve attention.
Grid side: Digital transformation is imperative
Some power grid system professionals told the Financial Associated Press reporter that the production organization mode adopted by the traditional power system is "source with charge", with a precise and controllable power generation system, to match a basically measurable power consumption system, rolling adjustment in actual operation, so as to achieve safe and reliable operation of the power system. However, in the future, new energy becomes the main body, whether it is the power generation side or the user side will become uncontrollable, which will fundamentally change this model, and digitalization is its transformation direction.
The so-called digital transformation of the power grid is the application of cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things, mobile Internet, artificial intelligence, blockchain and other new generation digital technologies to digitally transform the traditional power grid, give play to the role of data production factors, and lead and optimize energy flow and business flow with data flow. According to the "Digital Grid White Paper" released by China Southern Power Grid, after the power grid achieves digital transformation, it will drive large-scale renewable energy collaborative dispatch with "electricity + computing power" as the core, forming a digital platform with considerable, measurable and controllable new energy, which is conducive to increasing the joint optimization of wind, solar, water, fire and storage, and maximizing the consumption of clean energy.
Tang Guangfu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also said that through the deep integration of digital technology and physical systems, the "digital empowerment" of the power system can be realized. The power system needs to improve the level of digital analysis and strengthen the coordination and control ability of the power grid; promote the interaction between supply and demand of multiple users, improve the level of demand-side management; strengthen the integration of digital and equipment, and improve the level of equipment intelligence.
The reporter combed and found that in recent years, the two central enterprises of the power grid have quietly taken digital transformation as an important strategy to seize the commanding heights in the future. The State Grid proposes to apply the new technology of "big cloud and material transfer wisdom chain" to consolidate the foundation of digital development, pay close attention to data management, realize unified access, collection and storage of core business data, and accelerate the progress towards energy Internet enterprises. From 2019, China Southern Power Grid will invest tens of billions of dollars to start the construction of the "Digital South Grid" and build various interconnection platforms for the government, equipment manufacturers, energy producers, distribution e-commerce, energy value-added service providers, energy end users and other industrial chain participants.
Market participants pointed out that the previous State Grid Information Communications (600131. SH) has shown the convergence of digital frontier technologies such as edge computing, 5G, and artificial intelligence in the power industry, while China Southern Grid Technology (688248. SH) has just completed its IPO listing, and the core technology assets of the two major power grid central enterprises have been capitalized and are expected to become the core targets of this track. Industry researchers told the Financial Associated Press that the current digital transformation of the power grid is generally in the early stages of development. Digital transformation is not achieved overnight, it needs to go through the process of infrastructure construction, data collection, data learning, etc., and also needs corresponding software and hardware to be applied to the power grid. At present, there is great potential in terms of the amount of data collected and the breadth and depth of data analysis.
In addition, the weak link in the digital transformation of the grid lies in cybersecurity. The above-mentioned person believes that "with the application of technologies such as large, cloud, material, mobile, intelligent, and chain in the power grid field, a large number of heterogeneous terminals are connected to the power grid, making the network boundary of the power grid blurred, data interaction diverse, and because the existing protection system has not yet been able to fully cope with the gradually escalating attack methods and security risks, the network security of the digital power grid will also become one of the major challenges in the future." ”