During the annual conference of China's automobile circulation industry on December 2-3, 2021, on the afternoon of the 2nd, at the seminar on the new pattern and new perspective - reconstruction of the automobile circulation value chain and market trend, Li Xin, director of the Information Department of the China Automobile Circulation Association, released the "Operating Characteristics of the Used Car Market in 2021", which introduced the analysis of the used car market in 2021 from five aspects through detailed data.
First, look at the changing trends in the market. The trend of January-October 2021, the entire used car trading volume reached 14.4232 million units, an increase of more than 30% over the same period last year, achieving more than 20% growth, which is a very good report card, reaching rapid growth in February, mainly because the base of the same period last year was too low. Since the second quarter, the low base effect has gradually slowed down, and the growth rate of used cars has declined. In May, it was found that the growth rate of the entire used car market basically remained at about 25%. In the third quarter of this year, there are henan floods, repeated superposition of epidemics in various places, this bad weather and the superposition of the epidemic situation, the third quarter basically maintained an 11% growth, under bad conditions, the resilience of used cars is quite strong, used car trading volume of 4.5326 million.
The price index trend in 2021, due to the shortage of chips, used car prices, new car prices are soaring, 2021 trading end of the second-hand car price, as shown in the following figure in the same period of 2021, the formation of a scissors difference trend. The soaring price of the entire second-hand car is not only reflected in the Chinese second-hand car market, but also the world's second-hand car prices have a soaring trend, and have reached a new high every month. Judging from the case of used car sales prices in Spain, the average price of cars that are less than five years old has increased by 15% compared with the same period last year, so the soaring price of used cars is a global phenomenon, and it will continue to grow.
Look at the characteristics of price outcomes, in previous years below 30,000, 3-5 this piece is the main space in the second-hand car price range, from the growth rate point of view, this year's 50,000 below, more than 150,000, to more than 300,000, this piece of the price range growth is more obvious.
Second, regional characteristics
From the distribution of the six major regions of second-hand cars, East China and Central and Southern Are the key areas of the transaction, from the perspective of the growth rate, the northern region this year is obviously weaker than the southern region, like our northeast and north China, all because of the repeated superposition of the epidemic, like the northeast and Inner Mongolia regions have begun a new round of epidemics, this year's repeated superposition of the epidemic, the impact on the northeast and north China is more far-reaching. Like the southern region, the overall growth rate of 30%, we can pay more attention to our southern region.
The data cites an analysis of changes in the used car market in several key provinces. According to the data of Guangdong Province, in 2020, in the case of repeated superposition of the epidemic, although Guangdong Province showed a negative growth trend, in 2020, the entire Chinese used car market had a negative growth of 3.9%, and Guangdong fell by 0.4%, so the downward exploration was far lower than the national average. The top few cities in Guangdong Province are actively traded, such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Bergamot, and Huizhou. Like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan these off-site transfer rate is very high, has reached about 30%, 40%, you can focus on these areas. At the same time, it was found that in 2020, there are some areas that are in the process of gradual downward exploration.
The characteristics of the Shanghai used car market, the structure of Shanghai used car age and the structure of the flow direction, from the perspective of the age structure, more than ten years of cars, accounting for about 34% of the entire Shanghai used car, the national average, more than ten years of cars accounted for 20% or less, within three years of the car accounted for only 17%, the national level has reached more than 20%, which shows that like the north, Shanghai and Guangzhou will have this problem, first-tier cities have private cars relatively earlier than other cities, the number of long-term car age is relatively more, In terms of the presentation of the age structure, 8 to 10 years basically accounted for 50% of the market share. The first outflow from the Shanghai area is to Shandong Province, Henan, Anhui, Liaoning, Jiangxi and Guangdong, which is where the main outflow of vehicles in Shanghai is distributed.
Characteristics of the used car market in Beijing. By the end of 2020, the number of motor vehicles reached 6.57 million, starting from May is a gradual downward process, May for the first time there was a negative monthly growth, August, September, October appeared different negative growth, this is a very deep downward exploration process. This year's high base situation has a deep downward exploration, there are also Beijing's car Beijing transfer rate has reached 54.91%, although it is a purchase restriction, Beijing's second-hand car market development still has many development opportunities.
3. Liquidity
Judging from the cross-regional circulation situation, the transfer rate in the first half of the year was significantly higher than that in the same period last year. According to the data of the activity of second-hand car transactions, compared with 2019 to 2021, the transfer rate in the first half of 2020 was higher than that of the same period, which was affected by the epidemic last year, which restricted the circulation of second-hand cars in different places, and due to the repeated superposition of the epidemic and bad weather, the circulation began to slowly decrease than that of the same period last year. From the latest data in October 2021, the transfer rate is 26.78%, which has basically reached the level of April during the epidemic period, and the recent epidemic has a very large impact on the circulation of second-hand cars. In order to encourage the transaction of second-hand cars in different places, the state has also issued a policy of inter-provincial communication, there are 218 cities can do inter-provincial business, off-site transactions, off-site car inspection, off-site license services, from September 1, 2021 to now handle 310,000 off-site transaction registration services, this piece will better promote the circulation of used cars in different places under the policy support. The top five provinces reflected in Beijing, 45%, the second Jilin 37.59%, the third Zhejiang, the fourth Anhui, and the fifth Shanghai.
Fourth, the new energy used car market situation
From the insurance data to see the proportion of second-hand passenger car trading and second-hand car total sales, is increasing year by year, as can be found in 2020 there are already 47,000 new energy second-hand passenger cars in the market, while the market size has doubled in 2017. Looking at the monthly trend in 2020, most of the monthly growth affected by the epidemic in 2020 is negative, and we believe that there must be great opportunities for development in the future of new energy used cars.
The structural characteristics of the age of new energy used cars and the characteristics of price ranges. First look at the characteristics of the age structure, within three years of new energy second-hand passenger cars about 44%, no year accounted for about 74%, the price range, more second-hand cars concentrated in the price range of 100,000 to 150,000, achieving a year-on-year growth of about 40%.
Fifth, the analysis of the brand characteristics of second-hand cars
Judging from the statistics of the association, the distribution of the top 10 brands of fuel vehicles ranks first in FAW-Volkswagen and Jetta. GM Wuling, Wuling Light, SAIC Volkswagen Langyi. From the quantitative point of view, we can see that the entire market demand is also more responsive.
From the data point of view, pure electricity brand TOP5, new energy includes pure electricity, plug-in, mixed power data, this piece of data is mainly pure electricity, the top brands, like Jiangling, Beixin New Energy, Chery, the average age is about one or two years, probably as follows.
In general, the entire new energy second-hand car is the future blue ocean, but also there are some development dilemmas, but also through the research, car dealers, operators, user reactions of some confusion, such as some new energy second-hand cars do not want to buy, the retention rate is generally low, the evaluation technology of the three electric is also a problem. The speed of upgrading in the field of new energy new vehicles is still quite fast, so it is relatively not particularly stable, which will bring some confusion to used car operators, so they now reflect some characteristics that are not strong in willingness, due to the rapid development of new energy, including business models, after-sales maintenance problems, etc. will be gradually solved, so the significance of cultivating and developing the entire new energy used cars is very significant.
WeChat public number: used car wisdom Pan Pan (id: carman228)
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