Before Liu Bei did not get Zhuge Liang, there was no land, and the only generals under him were Guan Yu, Zhang Fei, and Zhao Yun, who lived in Xinye and Fancheng under Liu Biao in Jingzhou, not to mention the struggle for world domination and the establishment of the country, even if he protected himself, he also had to look at Liu Biao's eyes, a picture of being sent to the fence and being poor and destitute.
Liu Bei's time and operation occurred after Sangu Maolu invited Zhuge Liang out of the mountain, and the young Zhuge Liang proposed for Liu Bei the strategy of "Longzhong Pair" to plot the world, which solved three problems for Liu Bei that the entire group was facing development difficulties:
1. Clarify strategic objectives.
Zhuge Liang proposed it for Liu Bei
The ultimate strategic goal is to unify the world and revitalize the Han Dynasty
In the current state of Liu Bei's guest residence under the fence of Liu Biao's sending people, the goal proposed by Zhuge Liang is definitely a grand ideal and a great goal, which is called daring to think. At the same time, this lofty goal also became the ideal that Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang struggled for all their lives, and it also became the strategic goal of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition 21 years later.
Zhuge Liang
The corresponding sentence of the strategic goal proposed by Zhuge Liang in the "Longzhong Pair" is:
If so, then hegemony can be achieved, and the Han room can be prosperous.
2. Propose strategic planning.
With strategic goals, there must be strategic planning, and the plan proposed by Zhuge Liang is:
To seize Jingzhou and Yizhou as base areas, the foreign policy was to ally with Sun Quan in the east, to reconcile with Rong Di in the west, to appease the ethnic minorities in the south, and to jointly oppose the Cao Wei regime in the north
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To put it simply, it is to unite all forces against the Cao Wei regime in the north, and to inform Liu Bei that our enemy is the Cao Wei regime in the north, which is to unite the majority politically and fight against the most important enemy, which is the political card, and the corresponding sentence of Zhuge Liang's strategic plan in "Longzhong Pair" is:
If there is Jing and Yi, Baoqi Rock Obstruction, West and Zhurong, South Fuyiyue, Outer Alliance Sun Quan, Internal Repair Political Reason.
3. Inform the action plan.
Longzhong pair
Zhuge Liang clearly told Liu Bei that the final unification battle was to send troops from Jingzhou and Yizhou to jointly attack Cao Wei in the north, turning each other into horns, supporting and cooperating with each other, and when there was turmoil in the world, they could send troops in accordance with the agreement. The corresponding sentence of Zhuge Liang's action plan in the "Longzhong Pair" is:
If there is a change in the world, then order a general to take the army of Jingzhou to Xiangwan and Luo, and the general to lead the people of Yizhou out of Qinchuan, and the people dare not eat pot pulp to welcome the general?
"Longzhong Pair" such a goal, planning, and action plan strategy, to Liu Bei led the group under the qualitative change, in the first world change, that is, the Battle of Chibi occurred, Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang jointly used the opportunity to lay the first piece of territory that really belonged to them - Jingnan Four Counties, and then Liu Bei borrowed Nan County from Sun Quan, and 2 years later waved Yizhou, after 7 years of "Longzhong Pair" proposed, captured Yizhou, and it took more than two years for Liu Bei to go north to capture Hanzhong County. The successful capture of Hanzhong Commandery consolidated the northern frontier of Yizhou, and it was also in this year that the development of the entire group reached its peak, that is, in 219 AD, the year in which Liu Bei was proclaimed king of Hanzhong.
However, a major strategic mistake occurred in the Shu Han clique, when Guan Yu attacked Xiangfan, his former ally Sun Quan gave Liu Bei a knife in the back, taking advantage of the chaos to sneak into Guan Yu's rear base, causing Shu Han to lose the entire Jingzhou and Guan Yu and tens of thousands of Jingzhou troops, and the Battle of Yiling, which occurred a year later, made the Shu Han regime established by Liu Bei fall to the bottom, and Liu Bei could only leave a shaky Shu Han regime and the ignorant young lord Liu Chantuo alone with Zhuge Liang before his death.
Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang
After Zhuge Liang came to power, it took 5 years to solve the mess left behind after Liu Bei's death, repair Sun Quan externally, quell the rebellion internally, develop farming, accumulate strength, and finally complete all the preparations for the Northern Expedition in 5 years.
Now the south has been determined, the armor has been sufficient, when the three armies are awarded, the central plains of the north, the exhaustion of the blunt, the elimination of traitors, the revival of the Han Room, and the return to the old capital.
"Reviving the Han Dynasty and returning to the old capital" was the highest goal of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, and Zhuge Liang always adhered to this lofty ideal
and strive for it for life, but can this goal be achieved?
At that time, the entire Land of the Shu Han Regime was only the territory of 21 counties in Yizhou, with a population of less than one million, an army of only 100,000 people, and only 40,000 officials, while the Cao Wei regime in the north monopolized nine of the thirteen states under the heavens, with a population of nearly five million, an army of more than 500,000, and a strength of about 5 times that of Shu Han. Or is there any possibility of victory, and if there is no possibility of victory, why launch the Northern Expedition war of labor and wealth again and again?
Strength is not the decisive factor that determines the outcome of the war, if you rely solely on strength, then the Battle of Guandu and the Battle of Chibi do not have to be fought, direct surrender is good, there are many factors that determine the outcome of the war, there are accidental factors, there are also inevitable factors, Zhuge Liang, as a rare outstanding talent in the Three Kingdoms period, naturally also sees that the Northern Expedition is actually a hope to win, the so-called world has changed, but it can also be a change or turmoil created by man.
Map of the situation before Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition
Open the map, first look at the distribution of hostile forces around the Cao Wei regime, the southeast of Cao Wei is the Eastern Wu regime occupied by Sun Quan, Zhuge Liang's first Northern Expedition, Sun Quan has not yet claimed the emperor, cao Wei and Eastern Wu borders from the easternmost Guangling (Yangzhou, Jiangsu), Jianye (Jiangsu Nanjing) to the central Xiangyang (Xiangyang, Hubei), Shangyong (Hubei Shiyan) area, with thousands of kilometers of national borders, and Eastern Wu is the strongest enemy of the Cao Wei regime, more powerful than Shu Han, The top priority of Cao Wei's external defense was Sun Quan's Eastern Wu regime, and Cao Wei's main border defense army was also distributed thousands of kilometers of national border with Eastern Wu, mainly in the Yangtze River Basin and the Han River Basin.
The northeast side of the Cao Wei regime was the untamed Gongsun regime of Liaodong, the Gongsun regime controlled the four counties of Liaodong, Xuanju, Lelang, and Daifang, which was the northernmost Chinese regime in China at that time, and its territory extended from Liaodong County to the Hansi County set up by Emperor Wu of Han in Korea, and the Gongsun regime has always taken advantage of the contradiction between the Cao Wei regime and the Eastern Wu regime and the Shu Han regime in the south, and the solicitation of Cao Wei is hot and cold, and it is abandoned at all, and it does not submit to Cao Wei at all, as an independent force, often wandering in the political game with Cao Wei. It was also a threat to Cao Wei's northern frontier.
The northern part of the Cao Wei regime was mainly the Xianbei and Wuhuan people, and the power of the Wuhuan people gradually declined after Cao Cao's northern expedition that year, so the forces of the Xianbei people began to rise, mainly the Xianbei people led by Budugen and Kebineng, and began to gradually become stronger, just a year before Cao Cao's death, the Xianbei people were still opposing Cao Wei's rule in the north, cao Cao also let his son Cao Zhang lead an army to quell the rebellion, although the rebellion was quelled, but the xianbei people's power was still there, and the threat of rebellion still existed.
The northwestern part of the Cao Wei regime was a mixture of Qiang, Xiongnu, and Hu people, and these seemingly seemingly calm areas were temporarily calmed by Cao Wei's powerful force, but everyone understood that as long as these ethnic minorities and Hu forces became strong, they would rise up against Cao Wei's rule at any time, and all they needed was just a fuse.
Map of the situation in the three countries
Looking at the map of the situation around the Cao Wei regime, we will understand that although the Cao Wei regime occupying the Central Plains is the strongest, it also has the most enemies, the Cao Wei regime is the largest political power in the territorial scope of the Three Kingdoms period, as the Chinese regime that occupies the Central Plains, Cao Wei is also the only regime that borders all hostile forces, the family is big, things are naturally more, Zhuge Liang is eyeing the situation around the Cao Wei regime, so he will think that there is an opportunity for the Northern Expedition to win.
In fact, before the Northern Expedition, Zhuge Liang not only contacted Sun Quan in the east to send troops to attack Cao Wei, but also contacted the Humble leader Kebi Neng in the north to attack Cao Wei together, which was not without the possibility of success.
It can be estimated that if Cao Wei had a total strength of 500,000 troops, then the main border guards at that time were deployed on the border line with Eastern Wu, and the army defending Eastern Wu was at least 200,000 people, the army defending Against Shu Han was only 50,000 people, the army defending the northwest was 50,000 people, the army guarding the north was at least 100,000, plus a 100,000 mobile central army, Cao Wei actually had to bear the food, materials and equipment of 500,000 troops, and this pressure was very large.
As early as Cao Cao's later years, due to excessive taxes, a large number of rebellions were not uncommon, including the flight of the people of Hefei in the east to Eastern Wu, there were also rebellions in the central Wancheng Houyin and Wei Kai, and the revolt of The Luhun peasant Sun Wolf and others, all in order to resist Cao Wei's harsh taxes and miscellaneous taxes, once the border war ignited, Cao Wei had to face the enemy's attacks from multiple directions at the same time, and if there was a problem in a certain link, it would form a butterfly effect of military defeat that spread throughout China. Therefore, the border situation of Cao Wei is not optimistic, and it is the most severe external situation since the founding of Cao Wei.
Situation map of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition
Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition gained the best opportunity in theory and period, first, because of surprise, the focus of Cao Wei's defense was not Shu Han, and when Liu Bei and Guan Yu died, Cao Wei did not take Shu Han too seriously, relaxed his defenses against Shu Han, and there was also a relaxation in the Guanzhong region. Second, because Guanzhong was far from the political and economic center of Cao Wei, if it attacked here, Cao Wei would have to dispatch troops from the Central Plains, and the long distance provided an opportunity for Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition.
If you only criticize Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition by the size of the strength is not self-sufficient behavior, it is completely unreasonable, the wonder of the war is that no one can predict the future, today you can stand in the perspective of God to know that Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition will be defeated, but from Zhuge Liang's own point of view, there is no chance of victory, although Zhuge Liang used the wrong horse in the first Northern Expedition to lead to defeat, wasting the opportunity to surprise, but from the later Zhuge Liang's four Northern Expeditions, with weak strength around the powerful Cao Wei attack, And Cao Wei could only defend itself, and Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition was a great threat.
In the war, the vast majority of the dominant offensive posture was the stronger side, and Zhuge Liang's weaker side could actually lead the attack. It means that Zhuge Liang made up for the weakness in strength with his super human ability, that is, Sima Yi was able to block Zhuge Liang's attack and change others, and the victory or defeat of the war was really not certain. Zhuge Liang's Chance of Success in the Northern Expedition was there, but it did not succeed, and the reason could only lie in the heavenly time, that is, the situation under the heavens, the situation in the Three Kingdoms period generally tended to hate war, and the people did not want the soldiers to rise again, and even if they were stronger in ability, they were doomed to ultimate defeat.