In the first month of 228 AD, Zhuge Liang, the chancellor of the Shu state, launched the first Northern Expedition from Hanzhong, and in the following seven years, he made a total of 5 Northern Expeditions to Cao Wei, but there was another counterattack against the Attack of the Wei army, so it is not too much to say that it is "Six Cuts Cao Wei".
However, no matter which Northern Expedition, in the end failed to take Cao Wei down, the loss of soldiers will not be said, Zhuge Liang finally "died before the success of the division" in Wuzhangyuan, and the great cause of the Northern Expedition was stranded.
Although there was Jiang Wei in the back, he was unable to win in the end, and the Shu Kingdom was finally destroyed!
In fact, after the establishment of the Three Kingdoms, the strength of the three kingdoms of Wei, Shu, and Wu underwent fundamental changes, of which Cao Wei was the strongest, Sun Wu was second, and Shu Han was the weakest. Why?
Figure | Map of the Three Kingdoms of Wei, Shu, and Wu
During Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, of the 14 states under heaven, Cao Wei occupied 10 states, and its territory stretched from Shanxi, Hebei and Liaodong in the north, to the Yellow Sea in the east, and to Qinlong in the west;
The State of Wu had three prefectures, Yangzhou, Jingzhou and Jiaozhou, of which Jingzhou and Yangzhou were still shared by Cao Wei and Sun Wu, and Cao Wei occupied the northern part of these two states.
Since Shu Han lost several counties in Jingzhou, only Yizhou was left.
You know, in that era, population was a more important measure of national strength than territory, and shu Han, who had only one state, could not be compared with Cao Wei and Sun Wu.
According to records, there were only 280,000 households and 940,000 people at the time of the fall of the Shu Han Dynasty; while sun Wu had 523,000 households and 2.3 million people at the time of his demise; Cao Wei had more, with a population of 660,000 households and 4.43 million people.
Of course, although this data is likely to be narrowed due to statistical caliber, this is still more valuable in terms of the relative strength difference between each other.
Through these data, it is not difficult to see that Sun Wu's population is only about half of the Wei state, while the population of the Shu state is not even a quarter of the Wei state.
Figure | Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition
The gap in population size was directly reflected in military strength, and at that time, the ratio of population to army was basically the same.
At the time of the fall of the Shu Han Dynasty, the size of its national army was about 100,000 people; of course, at the time of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition to the Central Plains, the Shu State was still in the peak of its national strength, so its army size must also be greater than this number.
At the time of Sun Wu's demise, the size of his army was about 230,000 people; while the number of Cao Wei's army before the destruction of Shu was as high as more than 500,000 people, even considering the recovery of Cao Wei's vitality in the later period, the size of Cao Wei's army would not be less than 400,000 during Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition.
Therefore, in terms of the size of the army, even if the Northern Expedition of Cao Wei, an alliance between Shu and Wu, could not necessarily win, and the chances of shu alone challenging and defeating the state of Wei were even smaller!
You may say that Zhuge Liang is clever and calculating, and with his ingenuity, he will certainly be able to find ways to make up for the lack of troops. Of course, we do not deny that Zhuge Liang is indeed very clever, but Cao Wei is a big country, can't he find a person who can confront him?
Leaving aside for the moment that there was still Sima Yi, the big "nemesis", and "three stinky cobblers", could not also top Zhuge Liang?
Figure | Zhuge Liang - stills
So you see, at the time of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, the basic national conditions of the Shu Kingdom were one word -- poor!
As one of the main founders of the Shu Han regime, Zhuge Liang could not have been unaware of all this. In fact, at that time, he was already caught in a historical paradox that could not extricate himself, and he repeatedly tangled between fighting and not fighting!
Because if the Northern Expedition were to be carried out, the strength of the Shu state alone would not be able to defeat the Wei state under any circumstances, and the military strength of the two would not be an order of magnitude at all.
The original strength of the Shu state was insufficient, and offensive warfare under complex conditions often required several times the enemy's strength to achieve, and although there were examples of battles in history in which less won more, no one was willing to fight the enemy with a small number of troops unless it was a last resort.
Not only that, the economic strength of the Shu state, especially the supply of grain and grass, was also difficult to support the long-term war, and in this regard, Zhuge Liang's six Northern Expeditions were all returned to the country.
What's more, in fighting an enemy stronger than itself, the Shu state must only be a poor soldier, and its national strength will inevitably be continuously exhausted in one war after another.
But what if it doesn't go north? Will the Shu kingdom really be able to achieve a peaceful corner to ensure a century of peace?
The author believes that this is not the case!
If the Northern Expedition were not carried out, the State of Shu and the State of Wei would undoubtedly have no chance of winning in a peaceful competition. If the purpose of expanding territory and population is not achieved through the Northern Expedition war in the short term, then in the long run, the Shu state will inevitably only be a dead end!
Because in general, time is on the side of the Wei state, as long as it can get a certain amount of time to recuperate, then it can restore the national economy that has withered due to years of war. And the Wei State, which has an innate body advantage, must be getting bigger and bigger with the strength of the Shu State!
When Liu Bei "Three Gu Maolu", Zhuge Liang once said that the land of Yizhou was very rich, and its "fertile wilderness is thousands of miles, the land of heaven". But realistically speaking, Zhuge Liang's estimate of his wealth was obviously too high, especially after the influx of a large number of foreign people, Yizhou even had a problem of food shortage at one time.
For example, soon after Zhuge Liang came to power, he sent troops to Nanzhong, and although the reason was to maintain the unity of the country, the biggest reason was to solve the food problem in the Shu state at that time.
Before Liu Bei and others entered the land of Hanzhong, Yizhou may have been the "fertile wilderness and thousand miles" in the "Longzhong Pair", but at the time of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, the land of Yizhou was already the "yizhou fatigue" in the "Table of Departures".
So we can even think that the "Fertile Thousand Miles" in "Longzhong Pair" is just a political imagination of the Zongheng family; and the "Yizhou Fatigue" in "The Table of Teachers" is a politician's calm analysis of the status quo.
Therefore, Zhuge Liang's choice of the Northern Expedition is really a helpless move, long-term peaceful competition, the gap between the Shu state and the Wei state will become larger and larger, and the last thing waiting for the Shu state can only be two words - destruction.
Because since ancient times, no country has really achieved "a corner of peace", and the Shu kingdom is naturally no exception.
In fact, Wei Guo also has a very clear understanding of its own national strength and advantages!
Judging from the number of wars between the two countries, in the period from Cao Pi's claim to the throne to the fall of the Shu state, the State of Wei only launched two attacks on the State of Shu, while the Shu Han dynasty attacked the State of Wei as many as sixteen times, of which Zhuge Liang was six times and Jiang Wei was ten times. The number of attacks between the two sides is very different, and it is inversely proportional to the strength of their respective countries.
For Cao Wei, war was not conducive to the development of the country, and it was necessary to stop fighting with the people. Sun Zi, a major minister of the Four Dynasties of Cao Wei, once said to the Wei Ming Emperor Cao Rui:
"But today, when the soldiers are seen, the generals are ordered to take advantage of all the dangers, and the power is enough to deter the strong, calm the battlefield, and the generals and tigers sleep, and the people are fine." In a few years, China's prosperity, Wu Shu and shu will be self-defeating. ”
Sun Zi's words finally became cao Wei's basic national policy!
That is to say, militarily, it is mainly based on defensive garrisons, does not take the initiative to launch wars with the outside world, and pays attention to recuperation and recuperation, and starts with the people, in order to gradually form an overwhelming advantage over Wu and Shu.
No matter what, time is always on the side of Cao Wei, and if the Shu state wants to break the situation, it can only choose the path of the Northern Expedition to win more land and population.
Because of this, in the course of more than a dozen Northern Expeditions in the Shu Kingdom, Cao Wei always adopted an attitude of one word - shou! And this one "shou" word contains a lot of content, both to stick to no war, but also to protect the established national policy, Sima Yi and Zhuge Liang, which actually adopted this method.
As Wang Chuanshan said in the "Reading Through the Classics":
"Sun Zi's words were fixed on the front, and he rejected Zhuge zhuge and frustrated Jiang Wei, and after several decades, Sima Yi always guarded this plot."
Figure | Sima Yi - stills
So, if you are Zhuge Liang, can you not feel sorry for this? He said in the "Table of Later Masters": "If you do not cut down thieves, the king will also die, but he will sit and die on behalf of him. ”
A simple translation is: If you do not go on a crusade against the enemy, Wang Ye will also perish; will he sit still and wait, or will he take the initiative to conquer the enemy?
In fact, it is simply - "to fight is to find death, not to fight is to wait for death." Although they are both dead, the ending of the two is likely to be different, because if you fight, there is still a glimmer of life, and if you don't fight, then the ending will be no suspense - there is no doubt about death!
So instead of sitting still, give it a go! As the saying goes: "Fight, the bicycle becomes a motorcycle; fight a fight, the car becomes an airplane." "Besides, what if the fight is successful?"
Of course, Zhuge Liang also left a hand for himself when advocating the Northern Expedition, that is, "as for success or failure, it is not the right to see it."
That is, as to whether the Northern Expedition to Cao Wei and the Revival of the Han Dynasty were successful or failed, smooth or difficult, it was unforeseeable with my intellect.
In fact, to put it bluntly, it is: "Cao Wei is very powerful, but we must fight, because only by doing so can we ensure the peace of my Shu kingdom, but I said ugly words in the front, whether I can win the battle in the end, I don't know, and your emperor can't blame me." ”
Therefore, in summary, we can draw a conclusion: Zhuge Liang knew that the State of Wei was very powerful, but he resolutely chose the Northern Expedition, and one of the most important reasons was to maintain the long-term stability of the State of Shu.
Because from the perspective of the situation in the world at that time, time was favorable to the State of Wei and not to the State of Shu, and the long-term peaceful development of the two families would only make the State of Wei more and more powerful in the end.
In this way, the State of Wei will surely form an overwhelming advantage over the State of Shu, and if it is true that by then, the State of Shu will not be able to resist.
And now that the world is initially decided, and Cao Wei has just experienced years of war, the country is relatively weak, and it is a better time to send troops to fight. Even though Cao Wei was strong, with the strength of the Shu state at that time, he could still fight with it, and as for whether he could win or not, he could only resign himself to fate.
But for a politician with a broad strategic vision like Zhuge Liang, the Northern Expedition to Cao Wei was already imperative. In this way, Zhuge Liang started the six Northern Expeditions in his life!