Introduction: Sales have declined for four consecutive months year-on-year, which may be related to the lack of cores, but November production is higher than the sales of 32,500 units, and Changan Automobile has fallen again, which makes people feel a little confused.
2021 is coming to an end, but there are not many listed automobile companies that can successfully cross the line. As one of the few automobile companies that can complete the annual sales task in 2021, on November 8, Changan Automobile released the latest production and sales data showing that from January to November, its cumulative production and sales were 2.0872 million units and 2.1225 million units, an increase of 16.6% and 17.72% respectively year-on-year.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November, automobile production and sales were 23.172 million units and 23.489 million units, respectively, an increase of 3.5% and 4.5% year-on-year. This means that Changan Automobile's overall performance far outperforms the market and completes the target of 2.2 million vehicles for the whole year, basically without much suspense.
"Source: Listed Company Announcement"
However, judging from the sales data in November this year, Changan Automobile's sales performance has declined significantly, which makes people feel a little confused. In November, Changan Automobile produced and sold 220,500 units and 188,000 units, down 7% and 14.35% year-on-year, respectively, while production and sales of the entire Chinese auto market were 2.585 million units and 2.522 million units, down 9.3% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively.
Sales have not outperformed the market for the time being, the production in November alone is much greater than the sales, it seems that to some extent, Changan Automobile seems to be slowing down. Of course, it may also be for the same uncertain 2022, leave some "surplus grain" and start to hide sales in advance; or it is another possibility, some sectors have indeed encountered difficulties.
Judging from the stock price performance of listed companies, Changan Automobile's performance in the past month may disappoint investors and shareholders slightly.
1 The joint venture sector looks "not bad"
If you count November, this is the fourth consecutive month that Changan Automobile's sales have declined year-on-year. If you say that the sales decline in the previous three months may have something to do with the "lack of core", but the difference in production and sales from November is 32,500 units, it seems that it is not so simple.
In November, Changan Automobile's joint venture segment performed quite well, maintaining positive growth. According to the data, Changan Ford and Changan Mazda sold 28,900 units and 14,700 units in November, up 0.72% and 9.7% year-on-year, respectively.
Among them, Changan Ford's cumulative sales from January to November were 267,800 units, an increase of 20.54% year-on-year. However, it is not difficult to see from the production and sales K-line chart that since July, it has been freed from the problem of lack of cores, but the sales growth rate began to decline after reaching its peak in August, and the growth rate of 0.72% in November is close to the zero boundary point, which cannot help but worry about whether Changan Ford will return to the "negative growth" years again.
It is worth mentioning that Changan Ford's key model Forres performed relatively well, with sales of 5594 vehicles in November, an increase of 120.93% and 4.15% year-on-year, respectively, but compared with Xuanyi, which ranked first in November' car sales, the difference was not a little and a half; even compared with Passat, which ranked 15th in the car list, there was a gap of more than twice. Obviously, in the car market, Forres performance is still not enough.
Changan Mazda's overall performance was slightly inferior, although it was merged into FAW Mazda, but the cumulative sales volume from January to November was 125,500 units, a slight increase of only 1.72% year-on-year. However, its sales reached 14,600 units in November, an increase of 9% year-on-year, but it still maintained the overall upward trend of the previous 11 months.
Judging from the production and sales K-line chart, Changan Mazda seems to have been in a repeated struggle for lack of core since March, and it is not known whether the sales growth momentum can continue after the production in November has kept up.
2 The autonomous plate is loose, can the ballast stone still be pressed?
Looking at the autonomous sector, although sales declined in November, it is still Changan Automobile's well-deserved sales "ballast stone". In November, the sales of Chongqing Chang'an, Hebei Chang'an and Hefei Chang'an in Chang'an's autonomous sector fell across the board, with sales of 72,100, 06,000 and 18,800 units respectively, down 13.56%, 10.26% and 32.33% year-on-year, respectively; however, from January to November, the cumulative sales of Chongqing Chang'an, Hebei Chang'an and Hefei Chang'an still maintained a good growth rate, with sales reaching 855,000, 88,400 and 245,400 units, up 33.65% and 15.27% year-on-year, respectively. and 9.67%.
"Image Source: Listed Company Announcement"
From the perspective of models, Changan Automobile's performance in the SUV market is quite eye-catching.
According to the data of the Association, Changan Automobile's sales pillar CS75 model sold 20,364 vehicles in November, down 37.4% year-on-year; the sales volume was nearly 10,000 vehicles different from the Haval H6, which ranked first, which was not the same as the glue state of the previous CS75 and Haval H6 competing for the first place.
Not only that, CS75 sales were also surpassed by BYD Song and Tesla Model Y, and finally ranked fourth in the November SUV sales list. This may be due to the emergence of more and more competitive products in the market.
"Image Source: Passenger Association"
Changan CS55 ranked back to fifth place, but according to the association data, sales of CS55 in November reached 20198 units, an increase of 52.1% year-on-year. Although the ranking has declined, for Changan Automobile, which has two SUV models entering the 20,000 club, the performance is still remarkable.
In the performance of the car market, Changan Automobile is somewhat inadequate. Changan Yidong series sales of 9151 vehicles in November, down 56.73% year-on-year, fell out of the Top 15 list of Chinese cars, even if the last (15th) Passat, sales reached 14585 vehicles, more than 5000 more than Yidong, it can be seen that Changan Automobile still needs to work harder in the car market. If there is no change in Yidong, it may be difficult to keep the position of the top 15 in the total list of cars in the first 11 months.
In terms of high-end product sequences, the Sales of the Changan UNI Series reached 10,506 units in November, and the UNI-KIDD hybrid version of the series and the sports coupe UNI-V will be launched soon, which may boost the overall sales of Changan Automobile.
The parent brand is under pressure, but the overall performance of Changan's Auchan Automobile is quite eye-catching.
Changan Automobile released sales data show that from January to November this year, Auchan's cumulative sales reached 215,500 units, an increase of 58.6% year-on-year; among them, in November, Auchan sold 16,787 vehicles, and auchan X5 model alone contributed more than 60% of sales, reaching 10,214 units, and it is understood that the cumulative sales of the car since its listing reached about 128,700 units.
It is worth mentioning that Auchan X7 PLUS has been listed for 45 days, with a cumulative order of about 34,000.
Overall, Changan Automobile's independent sales have begun to decline for 4 consecutive months, and there is no obvious trend to stop falling; while Changan Ford also has a clear downward trend; whether Changan Mazda can get rid of the dilemma of lack of core is unknown, not to mention its small size and limited ability to play.
However, as of November, Changan Automobile has completed 96.48% of the annual sales target of 2.2 million units, and there is no suspense in completing the annual sales target, so Changan Automobile has no pressure, on the contrary, in the last month, it may have some reservations and pave the way for next year.