Recently, Tianjin and Guangzhou have successively seen positive cases of overseas imports of Aomi Kerong. What is the spread capacity of this mutant strain, which is listed at the highest level of attention by WHO, whether the virus intensity has exceeded that of "predecessors" such as Delta, and how do experts judge and respond? Nandu Big Data Research Institute will find out with you through the latest data.
has spread to 77 countries and regions,
It is currently mainly spread in South Africa and the United Kingdom
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the Omiljun strain has now spread to 77 countries and territories. Has it become the current mainstream strain of the new crown virus?
Nandu Big Data Research Institute compared the countries that have had confirmed cases of Omicron on December 13, except for South Africa, the proportion of others is not high. Second only to Spain in South Africa, the number of confirmed cases in Aumiqueron is about 10.63%, while the proportion of infected Delta is as high as 89.30%. The cumulative number of positive cases in the Uk's Semikron has approached 5,000, but the number of confirmed cases on the day accounted for only 1.6%, relatively speaking, more than 98% of the new cases are still caused by the Delta strain. It can be seen that in most countries and regions, the Delta strain is still the dominant strain of the new crown epidemic.
Richard Mihigo, coordinator of the World Health Organization's Africa Immunization and Vaccine Development Programme, said 46% of the confirmed cases of Omicron reported globally are in Africa. In the first week of December, new cases in Africa increased by 93% compared to the previous week, and there was growth in all three subregions on the continent. As the first country to have a predominantly confirmed case of the Olmikron strain, what is the spread in South Africa?
The data shows that South Africa has entered the peak of the fourth wave of the new crown epidemic, with a cumulative confirmed case of nearly 3.2 million and a total death toll of more than 90,000. In this wave of the epidemic, the number of confirmed cases has climbed from about 2,000 new cases per day in late November to nearly 20,000 on December 9. According to the South African Ministry of Health, new confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Africa soared 289% in the first week of December due to the sharp spread of the Omiljunn variant in all provinces of the country, and the COVID-19 infection rate soared to 3.5 from about 1 a month ago, meaning that every 1 confirmed person will now spread the virus to another 3.5 people. In addition, in Gauteng, the "epicenter" of the outbreak in South Africa, new infections surged by 400% in the first week of December, with more than 90% of the infections being caused by the Omiljung strain.
In terms of the positive rate of covid-19 tests, South Africa also soared from about 1% in early November to 16.5% at the end of November. In the first week of December, the percentage rose to 26.8 percent. In just one month, the positive rate of COVID-19 tests in South Africa increased by more than 260% due to the Impact of the Aumecreon virus strain.
In Britain, what is the spread of the Aumechjong mutation? The Nandu Big Data Institute collated relevant data from the UK Department of Health.
Over the past few days, the Aumechjong mutation has spread rapidly in Britain. As of 13 December, the cumulative number of infections with the Aumechjong strain in the UK has exceeded 4,700, with the number of new infections doubling every two to three days. British Health Secretary Javid said that in England, the number of cases of the Omikejun strain infection has accounted for 20% of the total number of cases in the region. In addition, since the first two confirmed cases were reported on 27 November, the cumulative number of new cases in the UK has surged by more than 2,000 times in about half a month. Among them, on 11 December, 633 cases of Omiljung were reported across the UK, bringing the cumulative total number of cases to 1898. The cumulative total number of cases the following day was 3137, an increase of 65% over the previous day. The number of new cases on the 13th exceeded 1500, and the first case died due to infection with the mutated new coronavirus Omilton strain.
In other countries and regions, Hong Kong has reported a cumulative total of 9 confirmed cases of Omicron, all of which are imported from abroad. The CDC said that from December 1 to 8, 43 cases of infection with the Omiljun strain had been reported in 22 states in the United States. Israel's Ministry of Health also issued a statement saying that on December 11, there were 20 new confirmed cases of infection with the Omiljung strain in the country, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases rose to 55. According to WHO, Omi kerong is spreading at an unprecedented rate and a large number of infections will overwhelm health systems.
Whether it is mainly mild disease remains to be seen,
Vaccines still work
The Omilon virus spreads faster, so what is the strength of the virus? Nandu Big Data Research Institute observed and compared three indicators of the four waves of the epidemic in South Africa.
A study of new confirmed cases by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in South Africa in recent weeks found that about 30 per cent of COVID-19 hospitalizations were severe, less than half the proportion of severe cases in the first few weeks of previous outbreaks; the average hospital stay for COVID-19 patients was shorter, about 2.8 days, compared to 8 days in previous rounds; and the mortality rate for COVID-19 inpatients was 3 per cent, compared with about 20 per cent in previous outbreaks, down more than three-quarters. Shubu, chairman of the South African government's covid-19 committee, also said in an interview that so far, the confirmed illness has been mild.
On the other hand, multinational experts have also warned that so far, the total number of patients infected with Omilon is still too small and all are newly infected, and it is not possible to draw a definitive conclusion as to whether Omilon will cause milder symptoms than other virus variants. In an interview, Thienwohnung's head of coordination for the World Health Organization's COVID-19 response in Africa, Tieno Balde cautioned that it is still in the initial stages of a new wave of the outbreak and that "it may take us a few more weeks to see exactly whether Aumi kerong will cause serious illness." Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also said more information was needed to judge the severity of the Amikeron variant.
Vaccine efficacy is also a public concern. Preliminary studies have shown that the protective capacity of existing vaccines against the Omikejong variant has decreased significantly, but it has not been completely lost.
The African Institute of Health in South Africa tested the blood of 12 people who had been fully vaccinated against Pfizer. They observed a 41-fold drop in neutralizing antibody levels in these samples against the Omikejong variant, suggesting that the Omiljun strain is more likely to evade existing vaccine-induced antibodies, thereby bypassing the protection of the immune system. But samples from five of the six formerly infected people can still neutralize the virus, and vaccines can still prevent more severe cases.
In addition, Pfizer also published data from a small laboratory study. The data shows that the third injection of the company's vaccine is only likely to be effective against the new crown Semikron variant. Two weeks after Pfizer's third booster vaccine, the vaccine's protective effect against Omi kerong ranged from 70% to 75%. In contrast, after injection of the reinforcing needle, the protective effect against the Delta virus is more than 90%. The UK Health Security Agency also revealed a set of data, after two injections of AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccines, compared with the original virus strain, the neutralization ability of antibodies to Omicroon was reduced by 20-40 times, that is, only 1/40-1/20 of the original.
Omikron has immunity to vaccines and convalescents to escape this point, and has almost hammered. In addition, both the Ministry of Health of South Africa and the Ministry of Health of Singapore have made it clear that preliminary observations show that the Omiljun strain is more likely to cause secondary infection of patients with NEW CROWN pneumonia than other mutated strains. It can be seen that for the viral strength of the Omiljung strain, we still can't take it lightly.
In the face of the menacing "Aomikron",
How do we respond?
After a preliminary understanding of the spread capacity and intensity of the Aomi Kerong strain, how do we deal with it? Relevant officials and experts gave their own judgments.
Wu Liangyou, deputy director of the Disease Control Bureau of the National Health Commission, said that the National Health Commission will closely track the global epidemic trend of the Aomi Kerong variant and continue to adhere to the overall strategy of "external prevention of imports, internal prevention of rebound". The new crown virus vaccination is still an effective means of epidemic prevention and control, the National Health Commission will continue to guide the elderly over 60 years old to accelerate vaccination, actively and steadily carry out vaccination work for people aged 3-11, further improve the vaccination rate of key groups, and win the initiative for epidemic prevention and control.
Wu Zunyou, chief expert in epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in his speech: "The mathematical model shows that the infectivity of Aomi Kerong is stronger than that of Delta, and the infectivity of Delta has been felt, and its spread speed is fast, but one thing is clear, no matter how it is mutated, our public health measures are effective." He further confirmed that public health measures such as wearing masks and social distancing are effective for all mutated strains.
Zhang Wenhong, head of the Shanghai Covid-19 Clinical Treatment Expert Group, also sent a reassuring pill on Weibo: China's current rapid response and dynamic zero-zeroing strategy can cope with various types of new coronavirus variants. The new crown virus has changed again, or the new crown virus. China is currently in a period of strategic opportunity won by the dynamic zero-clearing strategy, and is accelerating the construction of the scientific support needed for the next stage of responding to the normalization of the fight against the epidemic, including the formation of an effective vaccine and drug reserve sufficient to support the opening up of the world, as well as a reserve of public health and medical resources.
Li Lanjuan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and director of the State Key Laboratory of Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, reminded in an interview that China should neither be paralyzed nor panic. Viral variants reduce the protective effect of neutralizing antibodies induced by vaccines, but the vaccine's role should still exist. Ordinary people should actively cooperate with the government's epidemic prevention work, insist on not leaving the country unless necessary, reduce unnecessary travel, and at the same time, actively vaccinate against the new crown.
Producer: Nandu Big Data Research Institute
Source: World Health Organization, National Health Commission, South African Ministry of Health, South Africa National Institute of Infectious Diseases, UK Ministry of Health, Singapore Ministry of Health, Our world in data, Gisaid, media reports, etc
Deadline for statistics: December 14, 2021