In November, the new energy vehicle market was happy to be puben.
According to the data of the Association, the wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 429,000 units, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month and 131.7% year-on-year. From January to November, the wholesale number of new energy passenger cars was 2.807 million units, an increase of 190.2% year-on-year. Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 378,000 units, up 122.3% year-on-year and 19.8% sequentially. From January to November, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.514 million units, an increase of 178.3% year-on-year.
What is even more surprising is that in November, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 19.9%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands reached 33.2%. The penetration rate of 15.0% from January to November, the target of 20% penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2025 mentioned in China's new energy vehicle development plan, is expected to be achieved next year.
However, the price of electric vehicles will increase in 2022, which is not alarmist.
Whether there will be a "lack of core" in the rest of this year, the answer is already obvious. For most of next year, the shadow of lack of cores will continue to hang over the automotive industry, and all OEMs will still worry about chips, but to varying degrees.
The MCU, ECU (electronic control unit) and IGBT gap next year is still 10%-30%, and even the most optimistic forecast will continue until the middle of next year, while the pessimistic forecast will continue until 2023. On the one hand, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased, on the other hand, the lack of cores has led to limited production capacity and delivery, which is ultimately reflected in the terminal channels, and it is difficult to say whether the price will increase.
In addition to the lack of cores, some Wall Street analysts are beginning to worry that demand for electric vehicles will exceed the expected supply of key materials such as cobalt, lithium and nickel, creating a new problem for automakers to produce cars: a lack of batteries. There are already signs of a lack of batteries in overseas markets, and Ford has closed the reservation channel because the order volume of the electric version of the F-150 Lightning has far exceeded the battery resources.
This year, the price of cobalt, lithium and other materials related to batteries has risen, resulting in an increase in the price of batteries. Next year, whether the price continues to rise or the supply shortage, it will eventually make the cost of automobile manufacturing continue to rise, even if it is a new technology such as solid-state batteries that will be introduced to the market, the cost will not be reduced in the short term. If you want to guarantee profits, price increases may be the "best" way to do it.
In the domestic market, there is also the most direct factor leading to price increases: the decline of new energy subsidies.
Although the Ministry of Finance has not yet issued a notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022, according to the "Notice of the Four Ministries and Commissions on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in April this year, the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles has been extended to the end of 2022, and the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year. If you look at it according to this standard, the subsidy amount of pure electric models with a range greater than 400km will be reduced by 5400 yuan next year.
Although 5400 yuan may not seem like much, the impact is still great for many new energy vehicle companies that are currently difficult to say profitable. There are still less than 20 days to go before 2022, but the moths of new energy vehicle companies have already made a lot of noise. The "cheating" incident of Xiaopeng Automobile a few days ago, and the news of the price increase of the new car in the early extreme Kr 001 subsidy, are all caused by the subsidy decline.
And next year will not increase prices, the attitude of each car company is also different, there are clear price increases, there are their own upside down, there are taking advantage of the marketing, there are castration service rights.
As the top stream in new energy vehicles, Tesla has made a decision to increase prices long ago. On November 24, Tesla's domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive models, which have just completed product upgrading, rose from 250,900 and 276,000 yuan to 255,652 yuan and 280,752 yuan, respectively, with a range of 4,752 yuan.
In fact, due to the rise in manufacturing costs, Tesla has made multiple price increases this year, and the cumulative price increase has exceeded 20%. Giants like this that have achieved profitability are not worried about whether the car will not sell, and even consumers have become accustomed to Tesla's frequent price increases and price cuts. So Tesla can rise willfully if you want to.
From December 13, Xiaopeng Automobile will indeed shrink the car purchase rights package and car purchase installment rights after the new user places an order, corresponding to the adjustment of its three models, the reduced equity value is 4000-10000 yuan, and most models no longer enjoy 0 interest or low interest schemes. In other words, if you want to return to your original car purchase rights, you must pay extra. This is actually equivalent to a price increase in disguise.
The official poster content of the FAW-Volkswagen ID series is not so much to inform consumers that the subsidy will be reduced by 5400 yuan, but rather to take advantage of the situation to do a wave of marketing, telling users: "Hurry up and buy, and then don't buy next year, there will be no such price."
And enterprises like Weilai that like to "spend money" to do services, in order to "take the user as the center" and keep their position in the first echelon of new energy, they will post their own money to make up for the 30% subsidy of the decline. But this is also time-limited: "Users who pay a deposit to purchase ES8, ES6 and EC6 before December 31, 2021, and who pre-market on March 31, 2022, can enjoy subsidies according to the 2021 national subsidy standards." "The implication is that it must be ordered this year, and the car can be picked up in the first quarter of next year to continue to enjoy subsidies according to the standards of 2021." What will happen after this time, then we can only see at that time.
Whether it is a price increase, or a contraction of service rights and interests in the open and in the dark, or marketing by taking advantage of the situation, or the manufacturer's own subsidy under limited conditions, the attitude of the car companies is to imply that under the multiple pressures of the epidemic, manufacturing costs, and subsidies, there should be no OEMs in the next year who will dare to pay for all these rising costs as in previous years.
Unless the entire supply chain can be shared together, or a series of cost problems such as missing cores, materials, and new technologies can be quickly solved, these costs will inevitably be passed on to consumers through different forms.
So, finally, let me also advertise: if you really want to buy an electric car recently, buy it early. (Text/UVIS Auto Yang Min)
Note: The picture comes from the network, the rights belong to the original author, thank you! This article only represents the personal views of the author and does not represent the position of Univision Automobile.