Where will the "double 12" of consumer control | go?

The double 11 promotion that has just passed has made the double 12 shopping festival slightly embarrassing. Compared with previous years, this year's double 12 is more deserted: there is no overwhelming promotional advertising and red envelope rain, no live broadcast with goods war, no data contest of various platforms, and even on the Weibo hot search list, there is only negative news about the anchor Sydney and the "double 12 refund" spit.

After the bombardment of various shopping festivals throughout the year, in the last month, the platform, merchants and consumers seem to have overdrawn their enthusiasm, where will the "Double 12" go in the future?

Double 12 attention has declined The "marginal effect" has gradually decreased

Mo Daiqing, director of the online retail department and senior analyst of the e-commerce research center of the network economic society, said that nowadays, user purchases have become more and more rational, coupled with the fact that e-commerce promotions are quite frequent, basically every month, and they also last for a period of time, which is nothing more than the difference in strength.

For users, e-commerce promotions have become the norm, more selective, and there is no need to focus on the end of the year. Moreover, users have just experienced double 11, the belt bag is overdrawn in advance, and this year's New Year is relatively early, users will also reserve wallets for the new year festival after that, so the attention to double 12 will decline, and the participation is not high.

New retail expert Bao Yuezhong believes that double 12 is a promotion activity based on e-commerce platforms, any promotional activities, it will appear from the beginning of consumers more recognized, and then gradually appear a trend of diminishing marginal effects, whether it is double 12, double 11, 618, it must also be such a trend, from the beginning of consumer recognition and active participation, to gradually become accustomed to it, this is a trend of change.

At the same time, Bao Yuezhong pointed out that double 12 does not reflect some changes in modern consumption, especially in the current market environment, the stratification of consumption, the demand for goods is more personalized, in such a changing trend, simply relying on a promotion method facing the needs of the masses, can not meet the consumption needs of all consumers.

Double 12 is an auxiliary promotional festival that will be flattened in the future

In the view of Zhuang Shuai, the founder of Bailian Consulting, this double 12 is still promoting the social system from the perspective of Taobao, because in the context of interconnection, this is a bright spot. For Douyin, Kuaishou, and Video Number, they are still actively promoting the live e-commerce business; for JD.com, it is still actively promoting retail in the same city, including the promotion and growth of some categories.

Zhuang Shuai pointed out that Double 12 is an auxiliary promotional festival, which has the role of carrying on from top to bottom, because when the Double 11 promotion, some merchants may not participate, or the participation of some categories is not sufficient, so Double 12 can play a complementary role.

At the same time, the next New Year's Day, Christmas and Spring Festival are actually a role in starting down, which makes a paving and connecting role for the New Year Goods Festival.

Bao Yuezhong believes that the future double 12 will basically become a very bland marketing campaign, and there is no particularly significant performance, gradually moving towards flat.

Upstream journalist Yang Ye intern Zhang Kezin