At the 2021 annual media communication meeting of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Association held a few days ago, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Association, said that the Ministry of Finance subsidies for new energy vehicles will be completely withdrawn at the end of next year.
Although non-subsidy support will still exist, it also means that the new energy dividend policy, which has lasted for 12 years, will be completely cancelled by the end of 2022.
Say goodbye to the dividend period once and for all next year
Since 2009, China's new energy vehicle market has enjoyed 12 years of dividend subsidies. However, subsidies have been gradually reduced in recent years, and next year will also be the last year of subsidies for new energy vehicles in China.
Although the specific subsidy plan for 2022 has not yet been released, according to the notice of the 2020 subsidy plan, "the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles has been extended to the end of 2022, and the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 have been reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year".
If the implementation of the standard remains unchanged, the subsidy amount for pure electric models with a range greater than 400km will be reduced by 5400 yuan in 2022.
According to the latest data, the number of new energy vehicles in the first three quarters reached 6.78 million, accounting for 2.28% of the total number of vehicles. Among them, the number of pure electric vehicles is 5.52 million, accounting for 81.53% of the total number of new energy vehicles.
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in November this year was 20.8%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January-November was 13.9%, which was a significant increase compared with 5.8% in the same period in 2020.
The increase in penetration rate also marks the development of new energy vehicles from the "support period" to the "outbreak period". In the case of the decline of the subsidy ratio year by year, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has gradually increased. At the same time, China has also incubated many new energy vehicle brands, and the competitiveness of models has been strengthened and the number of models has increased.
This shows that new energy vehicles have gradually become the mainstream of the market, and the subsidy policy during the dividend period will also be officially withdrawn.
The market entered the Red Sea stage
At the end of next year, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be cancelled, and from the book data, the price of new energy vehicles will increase. Previously, after the large decline of subsidies in 2019, new energy vehicles suffered a "snow disaster", and the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles continued to decline sharply for 5 months.
It can be seen that the previous rapid growth of new energy vehicles is "unhealthy", and when the strength of policy support weakens, the complications brought about by this "unhealthy" growth surface.
In the past two years, this impact has become smaller and smaller, from the current market performance, China's new energy vehicle market has shown a polarized situation, specifically manifested in the high-end market and low-end market demand is strong, the high-end market price of more than 300,000 yuan is no longer within the scope of subsidies, and the low-end market synchronously in the form of cars going to the countryside for alternative subsidies, in fact, the real decline is the high-end new energy vehicles.
Overall, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2021 continues the strength and rhythm of the smooth subsidy decline. The impact of subsidy amounts on consumer demand has been greatly weakened, and the new energy vehicle market is gradually shifting from subsidy-driven to market-driven. At the same time, taking into account the scale effect, technical optimization and other cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancing measures, the impact of subsidy decline on the profits of car companies will not be too large.
At the same time, the double integration policy will also promote the transformation of enterprises into new energy, and additional new energy credits will also bring a lot of profits to enterprises, and in the post-subsidy era, "double integration" will gradually become the bottom policy of the new energy automobile industry.
In the last year of subsidies, all car companies will also begin to "rehearse" the market after the subsidy withdrawal in 2023, and the Red Sea situation is inevitable. This will become more competitive for the increasingly white-hot electric vehicle market.