The new "soybean oil exclusive" strain is here, and the bean oil is under pressure

The last time I wrote, I mentioned that since the middle of this month, the domestic bean oil and fat market has continued to follow the box shock pattern, often sideways, lacking enough to guide the market speculation theme. Just after Thanksgiving, on the evening of November 26, the global capital market experienced a "Black Friday", the stock market, commodity futures and other financial products fell together, especially crude oil dived deeper, because a new variant of the new crown virus strain was discovered.

Taking soybean oil as an example and combining spot market reference, as of noon on November 26, the average spot quotation of first-class soybean oil of major domestic coastal manufacturers was about 10225 yuan / ton, about 9950 yuan / ton in Dalian, about 10070 / ton in Tianjin, about 10100 yuan / ton in Rizhao, about 10290 yuan / ton in Guangzhou, about 10100 yuan / ton in Fangchenggang area, and about 180 yuan / ton in various places compared with a week ago. So pay attention to the impact of this round of new strains on the domestic bean oil market, China Grain and Oil Information Network Xin Xianming here to chat about the recent soybean oil market status and future market concerns.

"Omi Kerong" caused financial markets to fall overnight

On Friday, November 26, according to Xinhua News Agency, south African health departments announced on November 25 that a new mutant strain of the new coronavirus had been found in the country. The National Institute of Infectious Diseases of South Africa issued a statement on the 25th that a new type of new coronavirus variant B.1.1.529 has been detected in South Africa. In addition to cases from new variants in South Africa, a small number of infections have been detected in Botswana, Israel and Hong Kong, China. Although the overall number is small, because the number of mutations in the new variant is twice that of Delta virus, scientists are concerned that a large number of mutations may make it resistant to vaccines and spread more easily than other mutated strains, causing panic in the market. The new strain was named "Omikeron".

Fearing that the new strain could curb economic growth and fuel demand, investors have the upper hand in risk-offs and are scrambling to flee risky assets. As of the close of trading on the 26th, the January contract for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) on the New York Commodity Futures Exchange (NYMEX) fell $10.24 or 13.1% to close at $68.15 / barrel, which is also the seventh largest single-day plunge in brent crude oil history. Also because of the large decline in crude oil, the crude oil dumping plan that has been blown by the US president may be delayed.

Previously, many banks and institutions were bullish on the future market of crude oil, such as last week, the US investment bank Goldman Sachs said that the average price of cloth oil in the fourth quarter was estimated to be $85 / barrel, so Friday's news of the mutant strain caught the capital market by surprise. In addition to the reasons for the sensitivity to the economic recovery, the global financial market was collectively frustrated on Friday night, the stock markets and commodity futures of various countries sold off and fell together, and even the DOLLAR index also followed the downward trend, and the weakening of the external atmosphere will also put pressure on domestic legume oil and fat commodities.

The contradictions before the delivery of the plate grease are still there

Previously, the author has repeatedly mentioned the contradictory state of soybean oil and palm oil futures before the delivery of the month, that is, the 01/05 contract under the high basis has room for pressure to rise, but the bean palm basis is a negative value and there is a divergence that needs to be corrected.

Generally, when delivery is approaching, due to the choice of purchasing spot and holding warehouse receipts, the spot price of oil and fat will gradually approach the futures. As of November 26, the basis of first-class soybean oil in coastal provinces was Y2201+400~950, and the basis of 24 degrees palm oil imported from coastal provinces was 2201+400~700. The high basis gives the funding institutions a space to pull up the futures price.

The general soybean oil price will be higher than the price of palm oil, since November 16, the price difference between the main contract of soybean oil palm oil has been negative, the intraday soybean palm 01 price difference reached -370 points of extreme value on the 22nd, the bean palm price difference divergence is serious, in previous years, when the price of palm oil is higher than soybean oil, it only takes a few days to correct, but this year lasts longer. This means that either the soybean oil needs to be replenished, or the palm oil correction is needed, but what news theme will be cooperated with in the later stage, whether the soybean oil replenishment or palm oil correction cannot be predicted for the time being.

In summary, after the collapse of the Black Friday panic in the peripheral financial markets, this week needs to focus on the domestic market's reaction and response to the emergence of a new strain. From a macro point of view, China's prevention and control and response efficiency in the fight against the epidemic has come to the forefront of the world, in the face of the new virus will be more relaxed, last Friday night the A50 index fell less than The European and American countries can also reflect investors' confidence in China's epidemic prevention. Therefore, the author believes that if the impact of the new strain is suppressed within the controllable range, the panic hype of the new virus will be only a short-term bearish theme for the domestic bean oil market, and it will still return to the logic of forcing positions before delivery and correcting the bean palm spread in the later stage.

On the disk, the author maintains the view that the spread between the same variety 01/05 and the cross-variety bean palm needs time to adjust. Y2201 contract continues to observe the 9300-9700 point box, above the 9700 points of multiple heads back to the exit of the selling resistance, if you can really stand at 9700 points, you have the opportunity to touch back to the ten thousand points, and above the ten thousand points should not chase high; below the reference 9400/9300/9000 points support reference, spot dealers on the dip to properly supplement just need, spot on the temporary there is no too good operation strategy, with the use of picks. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the spread of new poison strains, the occasional rumors of dumping, the high-frequency data of horse palm, the loading and arrival of US beans, and Sino-US relations.

The author's ideas do not constitute any investment advice, and readers should refer to them as appropriate in light of their own and surrounding market conditions.

(China Cereals and Oils Information Network Xin Xianming)