Mysteel's interpretation: The current situation of global soybean oil supply and demand from the perspective of USDA

Source: USDA

According to the latest monthly supply and demand report of the US Department of Agriculture, in 2020/21, the global soybean oil opening inventory was 4.75 million tons; the total output was 59.32 million tons, of which several major producing countries were China, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina, with corresponding outputs of 16.67 million tons, 11.35 million tons, 9 million tons and 7.9 million tons, respectively; imports totaled 11.92 million tons, India imported 3.65 million tons, China imported 1.23 million tons; global consumption was 59.72 million tons, A total of 12.24 million tons of soybean oil were exported, of which several major exporters were Argentina, Brazil and the United States, corresponding to 6.14 million tons, 1.27 million tons and 780,000 tons. In summary, the total global soybean oil consumption in 2020/21 totaled 71.66 million tons, and the remaining inventory at the end of the period after the supply and demand game was 4.34 million tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was finally calculated to be 6.056%. In 2021/22, the global soybean oil opening inventory was 4.34 million tons; the output totaled 61.74 million tons, of which the major producing countries were China, the United States, Brazil and Argentina from more to less, with corresponding outputs of 17.56 million tons, 11.58 million tons, 9.18 million tons and 8.35 million tons respectively; imports totaled 11.89 million tons worldwide, India imported 3.73 million tons, China imported 1.1 million tons; global consumption was 61.34 million tons, and soybean oil for export totaled 12.58 million tons. Several of the largest exporters are Argentina, Brazil and the United States, corresponding to export volumes of 6.25 million tons, 1.3 million tons and 570,000 tons. In summary, the total global soybean oil consumption in 2021/22 totaled 73.92 million tons, and the remaining inventory at the end of the supply and demand game was 4.05 million tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was finally calculated to be 5.479%.

Let's analyze the important parts of the above table in detail, first of all, the opening inventory of the 2020/21 year increased from the monthly supply and demand report value of the previous month, due to the increase in global soybean oil production in 2019/20 by 180,000 tons, the import volume increased from 11.34 million tons to 11.4 million tons, and the consumption volume decreased from 57.35 million tons to 57.25 million tons, which eventually led to the increase in ending stocks from 4.51 million tons to 4.75 million tons. At the same time, the inventory consumption ratio increased from 6.474% to 6.829%. The latest USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report estimates global soybean oil imports for 2020/21 totaling 11.92 million tonnes, an increase of 90,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimated 11.83 million tonnes of soybean oil imports and a 520,000 mt increase from 11.4 million tonnes in 2019/20, an increase of 4.56% year-on-year. Global soybean oil production in 2020/21 is estimated to total 59.32 million tonnes, down 120,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimated production of 59.44 million tonnes and 780,000 tonnes from 58.54 million tonnes in 2019/20, an increase of 1.33% year-on-year. Global domestic soybean oil consumption in 2020/21 is estimated to total 59.42 million tonnes, a decrease of 110,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimated consumption of 59.53 million tonnes of soybean oil and an increase of 2.17 million tonnes from 57.25 million tonnes in 2019/20, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.79%. Adding up to the estimated 12.24 million tonnes of global soybean oil exports in 2020/21, it increased by 50,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimated exports of 12.19 million tonnes and decreased by 70,000 tonnes or 0.57% year-on-year from 12.31 million tonnes in 2019/20. The total global soybean oil consumption in 2020/21 was recorded at 71.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 60,000 tonnes from the previous month's total consumption of 71.72 million tonnes of soybean oil and an increase of 2.1 million tonnes, or 3.02% year-on-year, compared with 69.56 million tonnes in 2019/20.

Looking at the 2021/2022 data, the latest USDA monthly supply and demand report estimates global soybean oil imports in 2021/22 to a total of 11.89 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month's estimated imports of 11.82 million tons, and a decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.25% year-on-year from the 11.92 million tons imports in 2020/21. Global soybean oil production in 2021/22 is estimated at 61.74 million tonnes, an increase of 50,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimated production of 61.69 million tonnes, and an increase of 2.42 million tonnes from 59.32 million tonnes in 2020/21, an increase of 4.08% year-on-year. Global domestic soybean oil consumption in 2021/22 is estimated to total 61.34 million tonnes, an increase of 70,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimated consumption of 61.27 million tonnes of soybean oil and 1.92 million tonnes from 59.42 million tonnes in 2020/21, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.23%. The estimated global soybean oil exports of 12.58 million tonnes in 2021/22 increased by 20,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimated exports of 12.56 million tonnes and by 340,000 tonnes from 12.24 million tonnes in 2020/21, an increase of 2.78% year-on-year. The total global soybean oil consumption in 2021/22 was recorded at 73.92 million tonnes, an increase of 90,000 tonnes from the previous month's total consumption of 73.83 million tonnes of soybean oil and an increase of 2.26 million tonnes from 71.66 million tonnes in 2020/21, an increase of 3.15% year-on-year.

This article originated from Shanghai Steel Union Agricultural Products Network