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Bearish thinking strategy and risk control
Soybean oil futures 2205 contracts quantitatively evaluate the bearish strategy for 3 minutes from November 16 to November 30
Soybean oil futures 2205 contract prices below 8886 can test the trend bearish.
Short-term bearish positions should keep risk around or below 8600.
Other data and industry profiles
Spot oil market: Guangdong soybean oil prices do not fluctuate much, the local market mainstream soybean oil quotation of 10270 yuan / ton - 10330 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading morning disk flat; Dongguan traders: the first-class soybean oil pre-sale basis is concentrated in about 01 + 750-800 yuan. Guangdong Guangzhou palm oil prices rose steadily, the local market mainstream palm oil quotation 10090 yuan / ton - 10150 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading morning intraday slightly up 40 yuan / ton; traders: 24 degree palm oil pre-sale basis quotation concentrated around 01 + 450. The price of vegetable oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province, rose slightly in a stable manner, and the mainstream vegetable oil quotation in the local market was 12830 yuan / ton - 12890 yuan / ton, a small increase of 30 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading morning; the basis quotation of the four-level vegetable oil pre-sale was concentrated at about 01 + 180 yuan.
According to the weekly report released by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), Argentina's soybean planting progress in 2021/2 was 39.3% in the week ended November 24, 2021, up 10.7 percentage points from 28.6% a week ago. The exchange estimates that the area sown to soybeans in Argentina this year is 16.5 million hectares, down from 16.9 million hectares in 2020/21, as Argentina has higher yields from planting corn. The exchange expects the country's soybean production in 2021/2022 to be 44 million tonnes, up from 43.1 million mt in the previous year. Soybean planting in Argentina began at the end of October and is in full swing next month. The soybean harvest begins in March next year and ends in May.
Domestic vegetable oil prices recovered significantly after the opening of the market on Monday from the night session on Friday, but prices weakened again in the afternoon. The main factor leading to the current decline in vegetable oil prices is the resurgence of the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused panic in the global market as The Global Market has been spreading globally as the South African variant B.1.1.1.529 strain of the coronavirus has spread far more than Delta. On Friday, global stock markets, crude oil and other risk assets fell, and the price of the main WTI crude oil contract fell sharply by $10.15 to $68.17 / barrel on the day, down 12.96%. Global travel bans and regional lockdowns will hit crude and vegetable oil prices hard, and the virus cannot yet be determined to be harmful, pending the release of research data. At noon, Japan announced that it would ban all foreign tourists from entering the country from November 30, becoming the second country after Israel to block its borders. If more countries adopt stricter regional lockdown policies after that, it may trigger a further decline in crude oil prices, and vegetable oil prices will continue to decline due to their impact. It is expected that the relevant global research and judgment on Omicron will be announced within two weeks, suggesting that oil trading should be extra cautious during this period, after the long order can choose to partially close the position and take profit
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