The price slash, the final madness of commodities, is over

Last Friday, I wrote an article, The Last, analyzing the wave of commodity price increases, which is the last wave of madness in history, and the three driving forces of the rise are not sustainable.

At present, commodities, especially the "black series", are experiencing a wave of collapse. Natural gas prices, thermal coal, coking coal, coke and iron ore fell nearly 60% from their highs, and rebar hit a new low since the pullback this year. Only crude oil, slightly stronger, maintains the last bit of dignity as the "king of the great sects".

Crude oil is a little different from other bulk, logistics, currency, demand is the main driving force of this surge in bulk, and crude oil has one more, that is, OPEC, that is, the organization of the petroleum exporting countries and Russia, the United States reached a production cut agreement.

At present, the United States has taken the lead in surrendering. Because the United States is the biggest loser in this wave of bulk price increases, inflation has hit a new 30-year high, prices have soared, has been transmitted to the consumer end, which will inevitably affect consumption, and this is the first major driving force for ECONOMIC growth in the United States.

At present, the US GDP in the third quarter has been announced, up 2% month-on-month, far below the expectations of economists of 2.6%, and from the data point of view, the economy has entered stagflation. Personally, I expect gdp in Q4 to fall sharply from the previous quarter, and may even grow at zero sequentially, and by next year, there is a high probability of returning to recession.

As a result, the U.S. has begun to press OPEC to increase production. Several leaders of OPEC, generally the little brother of the United States, the last time the sleeping king just shouted, it directly let the crude oil fall by 3 points in the intraday. However, this time, OPEC is relatively head iron, have said that they will not increase production because of US pressure, so the performance of crude oil in these two days is better than other bulk, but it is also obvious that it has experienced a wave of sharp retracement.

The reason behind this may be that OPEC also recognizes that this is the last carnival in the history of fossil energy. If you don't make some money in the last revelry, you won't have another chance later. Now, it can be assumed that the is over.

At the recent 26th Global Climate Conference, while there were no landmark agreements like the Paris Agreement, countries have largely set their own carbon neutrality targets. India says it will be carbon neutral by 2070, and saudi arabia and Indonesia, which are big energy exporters, have also set their own targets. The average goal for China, Europe and the United States is to be carbon neutral by 2050.

If we say that since the disintegration of the Braiding Forest system in the 1970s, the United States has achieved its own financial hegemony by binding the dollar to oil through military hegemony. Then, after carbon neutrality, carbon emission rights will be new financial rights, which is an opportunity to shuffle, and it is expected that the dollar will not be able to dominate alone.

This change will also be a very important main line in the future, in which electric vehicles, photovoltaic and other new energy sources, basically the trend has been formed. Of course, this does not mean that there is no bubble in new energy, in fact, look at the analysts of brokerage companies, who have used the revenue and profit in 2060 to value. Now as soon as the market is hyped, it will directly fill the expectations.

By 2050, the shuffle will be completely over. For the rest of the time, I personally expect that there will be only 1-3 tickets left for the developed countries, and we will certainly get one of them. After that, the door may be closed and may be welded to death.