After an initial snowfall, several cities have turned on heating mode. Winter heating demand further tests coal supply, and multiple departments have made successive deployments. According to the National Development and Reform Commission on November 8, the current maximum daily output of coal reached 11.93 million tons, a new high in recent years. As the supply of thermal coal continues to increase, coal storage in many power plants has also accelerated its recovery. According to the National Energy Administration, the growth rate of energy consumption in high-energy-consuming industries fell in the third quarter, and the tension between supply and demand of electricity in the country has eased. However, at present, it is the period of frequent safety production accidents at the end of the year, under the pressure of supply assurance, there may also be a situation of grabbing output, loosening supervision, and preparing to close the coal mine to engage in "the last madness", the Ministry of Emergency Management said that while maintaining supply, it is also necessary to increase the crackdown on illegal coal mines.
Coal storage in power plants has accelerated its recovery
According to the WeChat public account of the National Development and Reform Commission, with the release of coal mine nuclear production capacity, the gradual commissioning of coal mines, and the resumption of temporary suspension of coal mines, coal production has continued to grow since October, and the average daily scheduled output of coal from November 1 to 5 reached 11.66 million tons, an increase of more than 1.2 million tons from the end of September, and the highest daily output reached 11.93 million tons, a new high in recent years.
In terms of full coverage of medium- and long-term contracts, the National Development and Reform Commission has twice organized power generation and heating enterprises to sign supplementary coal medium- and long-term contracts in the fourth quarter, coordinated the implementation of 150 million tons of coal sources in Jinshaan and Mengxin, a major coal-producing province, and achieved full coverage of medium- and long-term coal contracts for power generation and heating enterprises。 As of November 6, the medium- and long-term coal contract coverage rate of power generation and heating enterprises in all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities has exceeded 90%, of which 24 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have reached 100%.
At the same time, the supply of thermal coal continues to increase, and coal storage in power plants has accelerated its recovery. The loading of thermal coal railways has remained at a record high of more than 60,000 vehicles, and since November, the loading of thermal coal vehicles has increased by more than 35% year-on-year. Coal supply in power plants continues to exceed coal consumption, and coal storage has increased rapidly, with an average daily coal supply of 7.74 million tons since November, an average daily increase of 1.6 million tons of inventory, and more than 117 million tons of coal in power plants on November 6, an increase of about 40 million tons from the end of September. The level of coal storage in the port has steadily improved, and the coal storage at the Qinhuangdao Port Coal Yard reached 5.39 million tons on November 7, an increase of nearly 1.5 million tons from the end of September.
In terms of transportation capacity, according to China Railway News, from October 1 to 20, the national railway thermal coal loaded an average of 52,357 cars per day, an increase of 17% year-on-year. As of October 20, 363 railway direct power supply plants across the country had stored 35.04 million tons of coal, an increase of 18% over the end of September, and the average consumable days reached 16.6 days, an increase of 2.6 days from the end of September.
From the perspective of key coal-producing areas, the average daily coal output of Jinshaan-Mongolia is more than 8.3 million tons, accounting for 75% of the country's coal production, and the contribution rate to output growth is about 100%, giving full play to the role of large mines in large provinces.
The National Development and Reform Commission said that with the increase in coal production and supply across the country and the increase in coal stocks in power plants and ports, the spot price of thermal coal has fallen sharply. It is expected that in the later period, with the further release of coal mine production capacity and the continuous increase in coal production, coupled with the reduction of power plant market procurement after the fulfillment of medium- and long-term contracts for thermal coal and the improvement of coal storage, coal prices are expected to continue to decline steadily.
"With the recent vigorous intervention of the state, the supply of coal has risen rapidly, and the current power system in China has entered a state of balance. It is expected that with the further release of coal production capacity, the supply of thermal coal will continue to increase, and the coal storage in power plants will further rebound, and there will be no large-scale and orderly electricity consumption in the early stage. Wang Meiting, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the Beijing Business Daily reporter, "However, since this year is a cold winter, the demand for coal and electricity during the heating season is expected to rise rapidly." At the same time, considering that the rainfall in the southwest region, the amount of water coming from rivers are small, and the hydropower generation is limited, the supply and demand of electricity and coal in China is still tight, and it is still necessary to increase the supply of coal in various places to ensure the stability of power supply and heat supply. ”
The situation of electricity supply and demand has eased
After smoothly passing through the two peaks of energy consumption at the beginning of the year in the heating season and summer, in August this year, due to the impact of dry water and high coal prices in the southern region, the peak capacity of thermal power units was insufficient, and the four provinces (districts) in the southern region and Mengxi implemented orderly electricity consumption measures. In September, the capacity of temporary maintenance units nationwide increased, the scope of orderly electricity consumption was further expanded, and there were power curtailments in individual areas.
For the previous coal and power supply shortage, Wang Meiting analyzed that since the beginning of this year, affected by factors such as export-driven production expansion, increased demand for electricity and reduced coal imports, China's coal consumption and power generation have continued to rise, and from the perspective of coal inventories in power plants and ports, coal supply and demand this year continue to be tight, affected by the sharp rise in power demand in October this year, and there is a gap in coal.
In response to this situation, on November 8, the spokesman of the National Energy Administration introduced at the fourth quarter online press conference that through a series of policy measures, at present, the power supply capacity has gradually increased, and the national power supply and demand tension situation has been alleviated, and there is no longer a phenomenon of pulling the gate and curtailing electricity.
The State Grid also revealed that as of November 6, in addition to the orderly use of electricity by individual provinces and local periods for enterprises with high energy consumption and high pollution, the orderly scale of electricity consumption in the whole network is close to zero, the inventory of thermal coal in the company's operating area has risen to 99.32 million tons, and the number of available days of thermal coal has risen to 20 days. On the 8th, affected by the cold wave weather, the power load in Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong and other places continued to rise, and the State Grid further said that the local power supply departments are closely tracking and judging the load change trend, strengthening inspection and maintenance, and ensuring the reliable supply of electricity.
At the same time, the data released by the National Energy Administration shows that the growth rate of energy consumption in China's high-energy-consuming industries has declined in the third quarter, and the electricity consumption of the four high-energy-consuming industries has increased by 2.2% year-on-year, down 16.7 percentage points and 7.3 percentage points respectively from the first quarter and the second quarter, and the contribution rate to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society has dropped from 18.7% in June to -4.2% in September. Among them, coal in the building materials industry has had negative year-on-year growth since May, and coal used in the steel industry has had negative growth year-on-year and month-on-month since June.
To increase production, it is also necessary to ensure safety
Under the pressure of supply assurance, the situation of coal safety production is facing severe challenges. At a press conference held by the State Council's new office on November 8, Song Yuanming, vice minister of the Ministry of Emergency Management, said that in the context of a sharp rise in coal prices and increasing pressure to ensure supply, some coal mines may grab production on a large scale and by a large margin in the short term, and there may also be some situations of reducing safety conditions and relaxing supervision. The high price may also trigger some coal mines that are ready to close to engage in a "final madness", and even some coal mines that have been closed may also have a "resurgence".
However, violations of laws and regulations do not exist in large quantities. In Wang Meiting's view, in recent years, China's policy orientation has always been to release high-quality production capacity, shut down backward production capacity, and in accordance with the principle of capacity replacement, promote the concentration of coal production capacity in high-quality coal mine provinces, based on this principle, the recent Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments have given priority to the release of advanced coal mines, open-pit coal mine production capacity, driving a steady increase in coal production. Therefore, in strict accordance with the relevant principles of supply assurance, it is expected that the "resurgence" of coal mines, old coal mines and backward production capacity will be relatively rare.
"Judging from the actual situation, the recent increase in the production capacity of high-quality coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other places has played a basic role in ensuring supply, and some coal mines have been allowed to supply coal in excess of production capacity, but this does not mean that they exceed the capacity for safe production, mainly because there is usually a certain difference between the actual production ceiling of coal mines and the standard production capacity approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, so coal mines have surplus production capacity." Wang Meiting said.
It is worth noting that the current safety production work is facing the superposition of "three phases", that is, the high incidence of accidents at the end of the year, the peak period of energy supply and the period of frequent disaster weather. In response to these risks and challenges, Song Yuanming said that it is necessary to promote the strengthening of coal mine safety and production and supply assurance measures.
According to reports, the members of the leading group of the State Mine Safety Supervision Bureau have led the team to carry out safety production supervision and inspection in 10 areas with serious coal mine disasters, and under the premise of ensuring safety, promote coal mines with the potential to increase production to release production capacity as soon as possible. It not only escorts the energy supply work, but also can keep the bottom line of safe production.
"In general, the key to solving the contradiction between coal supply assurance and coal de-capacity and safe production lies in accelerating the release of advanced coal production capacity under the premise of ensuring safety, promoting the release of coal mines with production potential as soon as possible; promoting the production of approved and basically completed open-pit coal mines to put into production, and promoting rectification and reform of coal mines as soon as possible in accordance with regulations and resuming production." At the same time, we will accelerate the implementation of full coverage of medium- and long-term contracts for coal for power generation and heating nationwide, and enhance the stability of coal supply。 Wang Meiting said.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng and Lu Yinling