Per reporter: Zhang Huaishui Per reporter Per editor: Chen Xu
On November 7, the General Administration of Customs announced the import and export of China's foreign trade in the first 10 months of this year.
According to statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, China's total import and export value was 31.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.2% year-on-year, an increase of 23.4% over the same period in 2019. Among them, exports were 17.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year, an increase of 25% over the same period in 2019; imports were 14.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year, an increase of 21.4% over the same period in 2019; and the trade surplus was 3.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.5% year-on-year.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that according to the RMB price, China's total import and export volume in the first 10 months of this year has even exceeded the import and export scale of 2019, and it is only less than 550 billion yuan from the highest import and export value of 32.22 trillion yuan in 2020.
Li Chunding, professor at the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University and director of the Institute of International Economics, said in an interview with the Daily Economic News that there are three main reasons for the scale of foreign trade in the first 10 months of this year to reach a record high: First, the competitiveness of "Made in China" and the resilience of China's economy have promoted the sustained growth of import and export trade; second, the policy effect of China's expansion of opening up to the outside world, including expanding the opening of the market, taking the initiative to expand imports, the first to test the free trade pilot zone, the continuous development of regional trade agreements, and " The dividends of policy measures such as the Belt and Road Initiative, China-Africa and China-Latin America cooperation have gradually emerged; third, the new crown epidemic has led to insufficient supply in the global market, and the effective control of the domestic epidemic has just filled the shortage of this part of the demand.
According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in October, the total value of China's imports and exports was 3,335.69 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 5.6% month-on-month, and an increase of 23% over the same period in 2019. Among them, exports were 1,940.82 billion yuan, an increase of 20.3% year-on-year, down 2.1% month-on-month, and 29% over the same period in 2019.
In US dollar terms, the total value of China's imports and exports in October was 515.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 24.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month, and an increase of 34.5% over the same period in 2019. Among them, exports were $300.22 billion, an increase of 27.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8% month-on-month, and an increase of 41% over the same period in 2019.
Previously, Shenwan Hongyuan in its research report raised the forecast value of China's export year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year, denominated in US dollars, it is expected that exports in the fourth quarter are expected to increase by 12.2% year-on-year, of which in the month of October, the initial forecast of export growth rate was 19.1%, and the average growth rate of the two years corresponded to 14.9%.
Before the release of the data, the median forecast of 7 institutions collected by the media showed that exports in October increased by 24.6% year-on-year, which shows that the actual year-on-year growth rate of exports in October still exceeded the expected value of institutions.
In addition, the "Daily Economic News" reporter combed and found that the new export order index in the sub-item of China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (pmi) has declined for 6 consecutive months since April this year, and recorded a low of 46.2% in September, while the pmi new export order index in October was 46.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and bottomed out for the first time in half a year.
Huo Jianguo, vice president of the China World Trade Organization Research Association, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the recent year-on-year growth rate of exports has risen against the trend, indicating that price factors may have formed a certain support for export growth, especially in the context of high upstream raw materials and maritime prices, foreign trade enterprises may passively increase prices.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, believes that there are two main factors supporting the export growth rate in October: one is that the global macro economy continues to improve, which supports China's export growth rate in terms of quantity; the second is that the commodity index (CRB) in October was 58.49%, a new high in the past 5 months, and it also formed a certain support for the export growth rate in October in terms of prices.
Image source: CCTV news screenshot
In terms of imports, according to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, the total value of China's imports reached 1,394.87 billion yuan in October, an increase of 14.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 10% month-on-month, and an increase of 15.6% over the same period in 2019.
In DOLLAR TERMS, imports in October were $215.68 billion, up 20.6% year-on-year, down 9.7% month-on-month and 26.4% higher than the same period in 2019.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the year-on-year growth rate of imports denominated in US dollars in October was 20.6%, and the import amount fell month-on-month, showing a trend of "volume reduction and price increase", mainly for three reasons:
First, policy regulation and control ensure that the supply of bulk commodities is sufficient, and the import volume has decreased. In response to the "power rationing and production limitation" and "sports-style emission reduction" in a timely manner, the state has reduced the import volume of soybeans, iron ore, crude oil and integrated circuits by restoring production capacity and strengthening the regulation of key commodities.
Second, the problem of international commodity prices being affected by the shortage of supply is still relatively high. According to customs statistics, the recent import volume of iron ore, crude oil, soybeans and other commodities has risen, and the import volume and price of coal and natural gas have risen together.
In the first 10 months of this year, China imported 933 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 4.2%, the average import price of 1139 yuan per ton, up 61%; crude oil 425 million tons, a decrease of 7.2%, the average import price of 3128.3 yuan per ton, up 35.6%; coal 257 million tons, an increase of 1.9%, the average import price of 621.2 yuan per ton, up 27.1%; natural gas 99.074 million tons, an increase of 22.3%, the average import price of 2584.4 yuan per ton, up 11.2% Soybeans were 79.083 million tons, down 5%, and the average import price was 3531.8 yuan per ton, up 30.2%.
Third, domestic demand has slowed down, weakening import demand. Affected by the recent local epidemic disturbance and the impact of power curtailment and production in some areas in the early stage, domestic demand may continue to decline, the pressure on enterprises to eliminate inventory is larger, and the import demand has weakened.
According to the latest research report provided by the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, since October, due to the spread of the epidemic and supply chain shortages, the price increase of commodities such as coal, crude oil and natural gas has expanded.
Among them, brent crude oil prices exceeded $80 / barrel, an increase from the beginning of the year, overseas natural gas prices even doubled, coal prices also rose sharply. By product, the largest import contribution in October is still integrated circuits, crude oil, iron ore and agricultural products. Imports of natural gas and coal have increased significantly, mainly due to the shortage of domestic energy, which has led to higher demand.
Li Chunding told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the factors for the increase in the price of international commodities come from two aspects.
First, the epidemic has brought about a decline in the supply of commodities and an increase in demand, and the result of short supply and demand is inevitably an increase in prices.
Second, global quantitative easing and speculation are also important drivers of price ups and downs and risings.
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