Yao Yang, President of the Peking University Development Institute: China's economic growth rate in the next decade may be 5.5% to 6%

The Paper's reporter Zhou Wei

"Even if the epidemic comes, the international division of labor of products has not changed, and the trend of global industrial chain formation is irreversible." In fact, the process of globalization has not been interrupted, global integration continues to deepen, and China will play an increasingly important role in it. ”

On November 2, Yao Yang, dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, put forward the above views in his keynote speech at the 2021 Harvard Business Review China Annual Conference with the theme of "Great Restructuring and New Competition". He said that in the past, China was only passively responding to global issues, but now it is actively responding, which is a huge opportunity, and only by joining this globalization more deeply can China integrate more deeply into the world and develop itself.

For many people to propose that there is "anti-globalization" and "industrial chain rupture" in the world today, Yao Yang said that this judgment is inaccurate, he believes that the process of globalization will not change fundamentally because of the epidemic, on the contrary, the process of global integration is not only not interrupted, in fact, it is further deepening.

"Why do I think globalization is extremely resilient? The important difference between economists and non-economists (one) is whether to believe in the international division of labor, or to believe in comparative advantage? Economists are mostly convinced. Yao Yang said that even if the epidemic comes, the international division of labor of products has not changed. On the one hand, developing countries represented by China still have comparative advantages, on the other hand, it is very difficult for developed countries to develop re-industrialization, and the cost cannot be supported. China's huge advantages in manpower, network and other fields make it impossible for the world to decouple from China.

Yao Yang said that although a very small number of high-tech enterprises have been affected by the industrial chain, at the same time, thanks to China's asymmetric economic recovery over the past year or so, some enterprises have been upgraded. According to surveys by foreign chambers of commerce, the vast majority of companies are still willing to stay in China, and a large number of them are willing to expand production in China.

Sino-US trade conditions have declined in the past few years, and have begun to pick up again this year, Yao Yang said, China and the United States did not decouple, but instead re-linked the process. At the same time, China's export and GDP ratio in the world is also rising, which shows that the world's dependence on China is rising, while China's dependence on the world is declining, and China's position in the world economy has been greatly strengthened in the past decade or so.

Last year, the proportion of manufacturing in the world in Chinese mainland rose to 29%, and Yao Yang pointed out that this is a very significant change: "Adding up the manufacturing value of the three manufacturing powers of the United States, Japan and Germany, it is just a little higher than China, which shows that China's position in the world has strengthened." ”

For the "double carbon" target, Yao Yang pointed out that the challenge of achieving carbon peaking by 2030 is huge: "In my own judgment, in the next 10 years, China's economic growth rate will still be between 5.5% and 6%, the '14th Five-Year Plan' proposes to improve energy efficiency by 3% per year, coal to reduce by 10%, about 8% of (carbon) emissions, an average of 1.6% per year, and the overall annual decline in emissions is 4.6%, which is not yet as fast as economic growth." In order to achieve the goal of carbon peaking, I am afraid that we will have to make faster moves in the energy structure. ”

Editor-in-Charge: Zheng Jingxin