Do you have savings? Once this question is asked, I believe that it will get a variety of answers, some people will say that they have savings but not much, some people will say that they have no savings, and even a considerable number of young people will answer that they not only have no savings but also carry heavy debts.
Recently, a remark by Professor Yao Yang of Peking University has aroused extensive discussion on the Internet. Yao Yang said in an interview that 40% of low-income people in China have no savings. In order to stimulate consumption, it is recommended that the state send money directly.
In the traditional impression, China is a big savings country, and the household savings rate is among the highest in the world for many years. However, with the development of the economy and society, the excessively high savings rate will cause the weakness of the power of the consumer side and seriously hinder the development speed of the economy. Slowly, the consumption concept of Chinese is also beginning to change.
Professor Yao Yang of Peking University mentioned that 40% of households in China have almost no savings, and 10% of them have negative savings. In order to effectively enhance the power of the consumer side and enhance the confidence of economic development, Professor Yao Yang suggested that the state should carry out direct cash subsidies for this part of the group, and the amount can be 1,000 yuan.
Professor Yao Yang's words immediately won the unanimous praise of many netizens on the Internet, and many netizens called him "Professor of Conscience". From this point of view, Professor Yao Yang's words express the survival status quo and the voice in the hearts of the majority of netizens.
Although there is still a huge amount of savings in China, according to the survey, 80% of such total savings is contributed by 20% of people, that is, the other 80% of people contribute less than 20% of the savings.
Cash relief to nationals has long been precedentd in developed countries. During the epidemic, the US government has paid unemployment benefits of up to $6 million per week to the unemployed, which is an institutional arrangement that has been actually implemented.
So what is the reason why China has changed from a former big savings country to a situation where 40% of households do not save today? We may be able to explore some clues on the consumer side.
From 2010 to 2020, in the 10 years, China's average annual inflation rate is about 2.229%, and the statistics of 2016 show that China's average annual wage increase has reached 10.6%. From this data, our wage level has steadily outperformed the inflation rate and achieved the appreciation of the labor force.
But the biggest flaw in "averaging" as a mathematical concept is the inability to accurately reveal the effects of extreme values. House prices are one of the most important extremes affecting data. Because it is related to the lives of the vast majority of people in society.
In 2021, the total loans of residents in China reached 63.19 trillion yuan, of which personal housing loans reached 35.67 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 50%. More than 70% of all households in our country have mortgage pressure.
This data amply illustrates the huge level of demand for housing loans. We all know that the most direct expression of the value of a house is reflected in the house price. So, how has house prices changed in 10 years?
In 2020, house prices in Shenzhen rose by 334% in 10 years, house prices in Xiamen rose by 293% in 10 years, and house prices in Dongguan rose by 200%. The housing prices of various coastal cities and first-tier cities are like on a track, and those who have a slightly smaller increase are embarrassed to enter the competition.
It is also under such high housing prices that more than 70% of households in China have to use bank loans to buy houses. High housing prices bring huge amounts of credit, further reducing residents' spending power and savings. The real estate industry is like a huge pool of capacity, absorbing a large amount of social funds into it and becoming an alternative behemoth.
The older generation is particularly important to the sense of security in life because they have experienced difficult times, which has contributed to China's high savings rate for a long time. As they grew older, they began to gradually withdraw from the field of social production, and the emergence of a new generation has greatly reversed this situation.
With the continuous development of the market economy, the financial industry has also flourished. The advanced Western concept of credit consumption, such as "spending tomorrow's money and doing today's things", has gradually been accepted by more and more people.
In 2018, the number of users of Alipay Huabei has exceeded 300 million, and the number of credit cards issued has reached 970 million, equivalent to 0.5 per capita holdings, and the number of cards held by young consumers is the highest.
The vigorous development of credit consumption has greatly promoted the development of various industries in society and promoted the prosperity of the economy. Behind this data, however, is a more serious credit crisis. In 2019, the total outstanding credit of credit cards overdue for half a year reached a staggering 74.266 billion yuan.
The average debt of post-70s, 80s and post-90s residents has reached 130,000, and the group debt ratio has reached 1850%. Heavy debts have caused residents to pay most of their monthly wages, and many young people have taken out loans to support themselves. For them, not saving is a normal thing.
In addition, the successful rise of Ma Yun, Wang Jianlin and others has also triggered an entrepreneurial boom among young people for a long time. Entrepreneurship is a money-burning and low success rate, and it is almost impossible to succeed without the accumulation of experience and a certain amount of social resources.
The rise of the entrepreneurial boom has also made thousands of young people who dream of becoming the next Jack Ma heavily indebted, and even some people in their early 20s have been saddled with millions of huge debts. For a long time, it was needless to say savings, but more about how to make money to pay off debts.
Professor Yao Yang's remarks that 40% of China's people have no savings and that the state send money directly exposes the difficult situation in which most chinese families and young people are deeply indebted. For them, the ability to resist sudden social crises is very weak.
For a long time to come, the pulling force of the consumer side will continue to play a key role in the development of China's economy. However, when credit institutions and relevant departments carry out the construction of the credit system in the field of credit, they should pay more attention to the education of consumers' rational consumption, so as to avoid bringing losses to institutions because they cannot pay off huge debts in history.
At the same time, for the majority of young people with entrepreneurial dreams, we should also recommend that they calm down and think carefully before taking action. To determine what to do, it is also necessary to rationally plan the processes and steps to avoid the heavy debt burden caused by the failure of the business.
What do you think about that?