Acetic acid market "gold nine silver ten" ice and fire double day

　　This year's "Golden Nine" is a surprise for the acetic acid market, with prices exceeding 9,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), a record high. However, the "Silver Ten" long holiday returned, the market style suddenly changed, the bears dominated, the trend was pulled back one after another, and the low-end price in some areas fell to about 8100 yuan. Industry insiders believe that under the imbalance between supply and demand, there is still room for a sharp downward adjustment in the acetic acid market, which is in stark contrast to the trend of "Golden Nine".

　　The tightening of supply gradually eased

　　In September, the fundamental factor in the sharp increase in the acetic acid market was tight supply, and the tightening of supply gradually eased in October. Last month, affected by the "double control" of energy consumption, the production load of acetic acid and downstream factories in Shandong has been reduced. Since then, Jiangsu manufacturers' acetic acid equipment has reduced the load of production, and during the maintenance of the plant in North China and Northwest China, Shaanxi Yanchang has been affected by the whole transport and suspended shipments, resulting in the continuous shortage of domestic acetic acid market in mid-September. According to statistics, the cumulative 3.45 million tons / year production capacity of acetic acid devices has been affected, accounting for 36.32% of the total domestic acetic acid production. In October, acetic acid plants such as Jiangsu Thorpe, Tianjin Alkali Plant, and Ningxia Great Wall have resumed normal operation. The spot supply of domestic acetic acid market has increased. According to statistics, the operating rate of the acetic acid industry jumped from 77.74% in September to the current 90%, reaching the highest point since the beginning of the year.

　　Jinlianchuang analyst Xu Na said that the average social inventory of domestic acetic acid in September was 80,200 tons, down 24.69% from August. In October, with the increase in the operating rate of the acetic acid industry, the inventory of production enterprises has gradually accumulated, and it has reached more than 120,000 tons, and the market spot supply is gradually saturated.

　　In the future market, Anhui Huayi acetic acid plant is still running at low load, and Thorpe plant is scheduled to stop for maintenance in November, but the planned maintenance is generally prepared in advance, and the impact on the market is relatively limited. Industry insiders have said that the short-term oversupply situation in the acetic acid market is difficult to alleviate, and there is still room for prices to fall.

　　Strong cost support weakened

　　As the raw material methanol of acetic acid, since September, the market has experienced a strong upward trend. Thermal coal prices continue to rise, pushing methanol production costs to historic highs. The price of methanol in many places broke through the 4,000 yuan mark, and even climbed to near 4,600 yuan in some places, hitting a record high.

　　Taking the methanol market in the main producing areas of northwest China as an example, the "double control" of energy consumption continues to exist, and some methanol units in northwest China, especially in Shaanxi, maintain the previous shutdown or negative state. Before the National Day, the overall inventory in the middle and upper reaches of the festival is not pressure, so after the festival, driven by the rise in the price of coal and natural gas in the periphery and coal and natural gas, the local methanol market rose sharply, and the price broke through the high point in recent years many times.

　　At present, the operating rate of the methanol industry has rebounded slightly by 2.29 percentage points from before the National Day, but it has fallen by 9.26 percentage points from the same period last year. In addition, the recovery on the demand side has fallen short of expectations. The operating load of methanol-to-olefin enterprises is only around 60%, down about 15 percentage points from the beginning of September. This alone resulted in a reduction in methanol demand by about 157,000 tonnes. In the later period, the local power rationing is still the same, and some downstream still have the possibility of stopping or reducing the burden, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market will be mainly finished, which will be difficult to bring strong support to acetic acid on the cost side.

　　Downstream demand is bullishly disappointed

　　From the perspective of downstream demand for acetic acid, the "Golden Nine" market is less than expected, and the operating rate has declined to varying degrees compared with August. Among them, the operating rate of refined terephthalic acid (PTA) fell by 2.64%, ethyl acetate fell by 15.41%, butyl acetate fell by 9.65%, and acetic anhydride fell by 6.39%. However, the overall decline is not as good as the upstream acetic acid, resulting in raw materials still in a tight supply state.

　　People in the industry are mostly pinning their hopes on the recovery of "Silver Ten" demand. Previously, the industry has predicted that in September, the manufacturers of ethyl acetate and butyl acetate parking will gradually resume production in October, and the industry operating rate is expected to return to a rational position. After the National Day, the weekly demand for acetic acid increased by 13,500 tons in the equipment of butyl acetate and ethyl acetate enterprises, so the "silver ten" market for acetate was also placed high hopes.

　　"In fact, the resumption of work after the National Day holiday of the mainstream industry downstream of domestic acetic acid failed to reach the expected level. Among them, the load of ethyl acetate device is only maintained at the previous level; Butyl acetate device load is low, but the market supply has been saturated, short-term industry operating rate is difficult to improve the space; The PTA industry was affected by power curtailment in Zhejiang, and the operating rate continued to decline in October. In addition, the downstream for bearish acetic acid purchase rationality, and the impact of power rationing continues, the demand side for raw materials have no intention of hoarding goods, mostly on-demand procurement, light and difficult to see large orders, so the role of the raw material acetic acid market will continue to soften, suppressing the price of acetic acid. Zhong Mengyao, an analyst at Longzhong Information, analyzed.